On Jan. 10, 2008, it was 22,000. This past New Year's Eve, it was 15,000. Two weeks ago Friday, it was 8,000.

Now, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's administration – looking down the barrel again at a massive budget crisis – is talking about letting 38,000 inmates out of prison before their time is up.

Proposals 1 and 2 never got off the ground when the governor's budget writers eventually found the money to keep the prisons full. More recently, the administration never followed up with legislation to enact the early releases corrections Secretary Matt Cate announced on April 24.

The latest early release proposal has some legislators thinking they've heard this story line before.

"It reminds me of the saying, it's déjà vu all over again," said Assemblyman Jose Solorio, D-Santa Ana, the chairman of the lower house's Public Safety Committee.

Unlike its past early release plans, the Schwarzenegger administration says it can commute prisoner sentences under the California Constitution "on conditions the governor deems proper" – without buy-in from the Legislature.

Still, Solorio said there are enough legislators like him who are opposed to wide-scale early releases "that it would never be done in such a devastating way to communities." He contends that early releases should be coupled with an "incentive" plan that rewards good behavior in prison.

Illegal immigrants would account for about half the 38,000 inmates up for release under the Schwarzenegger plan. The state already has agreements to turn undocumented parolees over to the federal government for deportation. Remanding noncitizen prisoners would require another pact with the feds, administration sources said.

Legislative Democrats and Republicans alike recognize that the Governor's Office is trying to get a handle on a budget hole projected to range from $15.4 billion to $21.3 billion. The number depends on the outcome of next week's special election. Among other ballot measures, it includes three requests for taxpayers to redirect $6 billion in state funds to fix the budget.

Schwarzenegger is expected to provide details today on where he'll cut if the propositions lose. The details will contain the plan to cut the prison population by the 38,000 from the current 168,000 – the equivalent of emptying out seven of the state's 33 prisons.

"Let's just say there is an aspect of it that is crying wolf," said Assemblyman Jim Nielsen, R-Gerber. "It's probably meant to be a little more strategic, and I think that is a little unfortunate. You should not be playing strategy games with people's lives."

Gubernatorial spokesman Aaron McLear said the plan is real.

"If the ballot measures fail, we will have to make significant cuts, including the release of tens of thousands of low-level prisoners and closing prison facilities," he said.

Department of Finance spokesman H.D. Palmer said budget balancers will face about $6 billion in immediate problems if Propositions 1C, 1D and 1E go down.

Under those measures, the state would borrow against future lottery revenues, shift Proposition 10 tobacco tax funds from children's programs to the general fund and do the same thing with the Proposition 63 millionaire's tax that had been earmarked for mental health programs.

"When we passed the budget three months ago, we had to put forward $41.6 billion in difficult decisions to close that gap," Palmer said. "Closing the gap between $15.4 billion and $21.3 billion on top of that will by definition require even more difficult decisions than the ones the Legislature adopted three months ago."

Schwarzenegger's prison plan would review applications for commutation for all inmates imprisoned on offenses that are considered nonserious, nonviolent and non-sex related. Mostly, they're drug and minor property crimes. But some of the offenses are more serious than those crimes, such as spousal abuse.

Even if Schwarzenegger has the power to commute the sentences on his own, political consultant Ray McNally, whose clients include the correctional officers union, said the governor would still face a firestorm of criticism.

"The notion that California prisons are filled with nonserious, nonviolent offenders is fantasy," McNally said.

The early releases would save the state $335.4 million this fiscal year and $848.9 million in 2009-10, according to the administration.

Along with releasing lower-level inmates earlier, Schwarzenegger wants to turn over imprisoned offenders doing time on "wobblers" (crimes that could be prosecuted either as felonies or misdemeanors) to county custody.

The administration hasn't given a number on how many offenders that would affect, but it estimated that the proposal would save $100 million this year and $360 million in 2009-10. That part of the governor's plan would require legislative approval.

Sacramento County Sheriff John McGinness, facing an $85 million cut to his own department, said, "I don't blow (the proposal) off as lacking sincerity, necessarily," but in looking for a net benefit, "I don't see it."

State Sen. Mark Leno, D-San Francisco, chairman of the upper house's Public Safety Committee, thinks earlier releases will work if enacted in conjunction with a beefed-up probation effort at the local level.

"We need to reduce the prison population for a number of reasons, but I think we can do it in a more thoughtful manner," Leno said.

Corrections critic Rose Braz of Oakland, who has pushed for early releases, sees the Schwarzenegger proposal as heavily "politicized" by the special election backdrop.

"It's all talk and no action, and the situation just keeps getting more and more dire," Braz said, "for people inside the prisons and for our state budget."

Call The Bee's Andy Furillo, (916) 321-1141.