Two of California's top pollsters said Tuesday that Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and some lawmakers are miscasting last month's special election as a clarion call against any new taxes to solve California's fiscal crisis.
Instead, pollsters Mark DiCamillo and Mark Baldassare characterized the May 19 vote against five budget measures as an order to a dysfunctional state government to fix California's budget mess – and do so quickly.
"We've heard a lot of people say the vote means 'no new taxes.' I would question that," said Baldassare, survey director for the Public Policy Institute of California, in the pollsters' joint appearance before the Sacramento Press Club.
DiCamillo, director of the California Field Poll, said pre-election polling indicated voters favored a blend of spending cuts and "targeted taxes rather than sweeping taxes."
DiCamillo said voters opposed expanding sales taxes or boosting taxes on businesses or gasoline. But he said they widely favored "sin taxes" targeting pornography, alcohol and tobacco and strongly backed hiking income taxes on people earning more than $1 million a year.
Baldassare said the election turnout of just 28 percent of registered voters skewed strongly conservative. He said half of voters were age 55 and over and a near equal number of Republicans as Democrats turned out in a blue state.
"The vote in this election, which for some time has been described as reflecting the will of the people, doesn't reflect the will of the people," Baldassare said.
He added that PPIC surveys leading up to the election "consistently" showed "a plurality of Californians saying they favor a mix of tax increases and spending cuts."
But DiCamillo said anti-tax sentiments were likely fueled by one key initiative – Proposition 1A – because voters believed lawmakers, in the official ballot summary, deliberately hid the fact that the measure would have extended sales, vehicle and income tax hikes for two years.
DiCamillo said polling showed voters had little idea what the May 19 initiatives would do – yet knew from news reports that Proposition 1A would trigger extended taxes.
Baldassare said defeat of the budget initiatives – and passage of a measure to cap lawmakers' pay in deficit years – reflected "voters' accumulated negative image" of the Legislature and governor.
"This should serve as a warning that they need to avoid delays and pass this budget," he said.
Call Peter Hecht, Bee Capitol Bureau, (916) 326-5539.
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