Can the governor affect '08 race?

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger can't be U.S. president, but that won't stop him from trying to put his stamp on next year's presidential race.

Besides organizing a New Hampshire forum on global warming and energy with former Vice President Al Gore in December, the Republican governor is exploring ways to influence the presidential primary and has not ruled out endorsing a GOP candidate.

Political analysts say an endorsement alone is unlikely to play a major role in the outcome. But Schwarzenegger could help a candidate by making joint appearances that draw media attention and speaking at fundraisers. He also could steer campaign dialogue by holding more issue forums.

"He is considering getting involved, and he is watching this race very closely," said Schwarzenegger communications director Adam Mendelsohn. "He is paying attention to what the candidates are saying, and he is very concerned about the nation's energy issues."

Schwarzenegger's office announced last week that he has invited candidates from both parties to attend a forum in New Hampshire in mid-December, less than a month before the state's pivotal primary. That fulfills part of his promise earlier this year to travel outside California to force presidential candidates to address issues such as the environment and health care.

"He might be able to cause some mischief," said John J. Pitney, professor of government at Claremont McKenna College. "Asking Republicans to share a stage with Al Gore would put them into an uncomfortable position. On one hand, in the general election, they don't want to seem indifferent to global warming. But on the other hand, appearing with Al Gore is not a good way to get Republican votes."

In 2004, Schwarzenegger backed President Bush in a prominent speaking role at the Republican National Convention. The governor also helped Bush later that year during a campaign rally in Ohio.

Democrats used footage of the governor's Ohio appearance in campaign commercials during the gubernatorial contest last summer, suggesting that Schwarzenegger was responsible for Bush's 2004 win.

Schwarzenegger has wavered so far on whether he would back a particular candidate before the primary. In past interviews, he has mentioned Sen. John McCain, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and potential independent candidate Michael Bloomberg as candidates who hold views similar to his own.

Pitney said that if Schwarzenegger were to endorse a 2008 candidate, he would have to hit the campaign trail and raise money to have a real impact rather than just lend his name.

"Endorsements generally don't sway that many votes unless it's for a lower-level office where voters don't have that many cues," Pitney said.

Tony Quinn, co-editor of the California Target Book, which handicaps state political races, questioned how much help a Schwarzenegger endorsement would provide to a Republican candidate in a GOP primary. The governor has moderated his political views, angering conservative activists in his party.

"He's not associated as a party leader, and he's not someone to whom Republicans look for guidance on how to vote in the Republican primary," Quinn said.

Still, Democratic strategist Bill Carrick, who produced the ads tying Schwarzenegger to Bush, said he was "awestruck" by the power of Schwarzenegger's celebrity.

"I came away from 2004 thinking, boy, this guy is a tremendous asset for some presidential candidate," Carrick said. "He has a blue-collar and middle-class appeal that speaks right to swing voters in crucial battleground states."

The governor and lawmakers moved up California's presidential primary to Feb. 5 to force candidates to give the state more influence, though other states scheduled their elections even earlier. The Iowa caucus, for instance, will take place Jan. 3.

That means the primary outcome could be decided before Californians have a chance to weigh in. If Schwarzenegger waits to endorse until right before the California contest, he "would be jumping on the bandwagon rather than pushing the process," Quinn said.

The primaries come at a time when Schwarzenegger could be facing serious problems at home. The Legislative Analyst's Office predicted last week that the state will face an operating deficit next year of $10 billion. He has yet to resolve his $14 billion health care package. In January, he is due to give his State of the State address and present his budget proposal.

Chris Lehane, a Democratic political strategist, said Schwarzenegger may be using the New Hampshire forum to boost his popularity.

"I think the governor is smart in the sense that he is looking to leverage the Republican primary to burnish, reinforce, promote and elevate the Arnold brand," Lehane said. "Arnold Schwarzenegger holding a global warming forum in New Hampshire in the thick of the Republican primary is like a man-biting-dog story. It's not something you'd normally see in the Republican primary. It's good for Arnold's post-partisan image."

Lehane warned that Schwarzenegger's endorsement of a GOP candidate could pose problems with Democrats at home next year. But Pitney pointed out that Schwarzenegger's ties to Bush didn't hurt him last year when he was re-elected in a landslide.

"You can never predict Arnold," Pitney said. "My hunch is that he won't endorse unless there's an obvious favorite, and he'll go with the favorite. He's not going to put his chips on an underdog."

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• Call Kevin Yamamura, Bee Capitol Bureau, (916) 326-5548.