California's unemployment rate will peak at just over 12 percent late this year, according to a forecast today by the University of the Pacific.
The rate won't drop back to single digits until late 2011, said forecaster Jeff Michael. Currently, unemployment statewide stands at 10.5 percent.
Michael, director of UOP's Business Forecasting Center, said the state will lose 950,000 nonfarm jobs by the time the recession ends. Throw in the effects of the water shortage, which is crippling many farm operations, and the total job loss will approach 1 million.
An unemployment rate of 12 percent would be the highest since modern record-keeping began in 1976. The previous high: 11 percent, reached three times in the early 1980s recession.
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