Fargo leads Johnson in poll; 29% undecided

The Sacramento mayor's race remains wide open less than two weeks before the election, thanks to a large number of undecided voters, according to a new poll commissioned by The Bee and KXJZ News.

Two-term Mayor Heather Fargo led challenger Kevin Johnson by seven percentage points among voters surveyed over a five-day period that ended Monday. Thirty-seven percent said they supported Fargo, while 30 percent backed Johnson, a former NBA star turned developer and educator, the poll found.

But 29 percent of those polled said they still hadn't decided whom to support. If neither Fargo nor Johnson wins more than 50 percent of the vote in the June 3 primary, the pair will head to a November runoff.

"Right now it looks like it's going to be a cliffhanger," said Cheryl Katz, vice president of Baldassare Associates, the firm that conducted the poll.

The other four candidates in the race have attracted less than 5 percent of the vote among them, the poll found. Bounty hunter Leonard Padilla ranked highest among this group, snagging support from 2 percent of those polled.

The survey of 500 likely city voters was conducted from May 15 to May 19. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

Republicans heavily favored Johnson over Fargo – 48 percent to 17 percent – while the current mayor was favored by Democrats by a similarly wide margin, the survey found.

Johnson's decision to pound on public safety as a major campaign theme appears to dovetail with how voters are thinking. Of those surveyed, 22 percent identified crime as the most important problem facing Sacramento – far more than any other issue.

Jobs and the economy, which ranked second, was chosen by 13 percent as their top concern.

Among voters who said crime was the most important problem facing Sacramento, Johnson held a 39 percent to 31 percent lead over Fargo.

"If those are the people who get really riled up, it could swing the election," Katz said.

It's difficult to tell from the numbers what impact the increasingly negative tone of the race is having on voters. The pollsters did not ask specific questions about such issues as the federal probe into Johnson's management of his St. HOPE organization, or allegations that he inappropriately touched teenage girls in Phoenix and Sacramento. He was never charged in Phoenix, and Sacramento police found no merit in the allegation.

Neither Johnson nor Fargo suffers from a particularly high negative image, the survey found. Just 27 percent of those polled said they held an unfavorable opinion of Johnson, compared with 30 percent for Fargo. Many voters said they simply did not know enough about either candidate to have formed an opinion.

In follow-up interviews Thursday, some voters said they remain on the fence as they try to sort through the claims and counterclaims. Others said the allegations about Johnson – and the response by Fargo and her supporters – helped solidify their support behind one candidate or the other.

Janet Beskeen, 67, a Fruitridge-area resident, said she doesn't know which way she will vote. She plans to cast her ballot absentee but is waiting "until the very end."

"I'd like to go for Kevin Johnson because he's young and energetic, and he played Little League with my son many years ago, but all of this stuff coming out … is kind of bothering me," she said.

Jane Wymore, 65, a Land Park resident, said she can see the appeal of having a celebrity like Johnson for mayor but has decided to stick with Fargo.

"This cloud over Kevin Johnson just seems to be getting bigger and bigger," Wymore said.

Other voters expressed opposite concerns, saying they were dismayed by the attacks on Johnson from Fargo supporters, and thought the allegations had been blown out of proportion.

Jon Chase, a Natomas resident and one-time City Council candidate, said he was bothered by Fargo's call Wednesday for the Sacramento police to reopen their investigation into an allegation that Johnson inappropriately touched a student at St. HOPE's Sacramento High School.

The investigation was quickly closed after the girl recanted.

"I'm not sure why we're banging this drum," Chase said. "I'd much rather have people start looking more closely at flood control and police protection and the budget."

Chase said he endorsed Fargo in her previous two campaigns but thinks it's time for a change. "Heather started out as a community activist and had that passion and drive; it appears to myself and others that the mayor has forgotten why she ran for office."

While many Sacramento voters remain undecided, that doesn't mean they're not engaged. The poll found a high level of interest in the mayor's race – with 22 percent saying they were following it very closely and another 49 percent saying they were following it fairly closely.

Among voters who said they had been following the race very closely, Johnson enjoys a nine percentage point lead over Fargo.

"People have been focusing on it," Katz said. "You could call it the talk of the town."

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