This much is certain about California in the grip of its budget crisis: Nothing is certain.
State employees are not certain how much they will be working a month from now, or whether they will be working at all.
Parents with children in public schools are uncertain how those schools will function in coming months, or for how long. The teachers and administrators who run schools and classrooms are uncertain about those things, too. So are students and faculty in public colleges and universities across the state.
Contractors and employers who were at work on 2,000 public works projects around the state are uncertain when or if the state will resume work on those projects.
Businesses who do work for state government are unsure whether they will continue to do so, and if so under what financial arrangements.
The growing ranks of the unemployed are uncertain how long the state's unemployment insurance fund will be able to continue paying benefits.
Poor people are uncertain whether they will be able to count on continued public assistance or health care for their children.
Across California, people are uncertain what the future holds. Of course, much of that uncertainty has less to do with the lack of a state budget than with the shaky state of the national and global economy. People concerned about losing homes or jobs don't pay much attention to how the Legislature and the governor are performing – until it begins to affect them directly. That is beginning to happen now.
The sad part is that it need not happen. The governor and legislators can't fix the economy, but they can restore a measure of confidence about the functioning of state government. They can do that by enacting a budget that involves both significant cuts in spending and significant tax increases.
For awhile last week, it appeared that a budget with $9 billion in cuts and $9 billion in new taxes, passed by Democrats in both chambers, might be within grasp. (Whether it was legal, was, well, uncertain.) But then Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger decided to oppose it, and the prospect of action faded again.
The governor and Democratic legislative leaders continue to discuss a deal based on the Democrats' budget plan. Such an outcome is appealing on a pragmatic level, but is far from ideal for several reasons.
For one thing, nobody really knows whether the courts will find taxes enacted by a simple majority to be legal.
For another, much of the original deal was hatched in private, and the current negotiations are taking place out of public view, too. That raises the question of whether legislators who would vote for a new budget plan would really know what they are voting on.
And, perhaps most troubling, the Democrats' original proposal did nothing to ease the state's long-term financial troubles, so it's unlikely that a revised plan will.
All of which leaves Californians where they have been for a long time: with a growing sense of unease, wishing somebody in the Capitol would do something, and looking for somebody to blame if that doesn't happen. Perhaps that last point will help motivate lawmakers and the governor to find a solution. Sometimes, a bit of uncertainty about your political future does wonders to clarify the mind.
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