Here's a daunting thought in this age of rapid technological advancement. Fuel economy in the U.S. vehicle fleet has changed little since the days of the Ford Model T.
In a recent study, Michael Sivak and Omer Tsimhoni at the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute calculated the distance driven and fuel consumed for the U.S. fleet of vehicles – including cars, light trucks, buses and heavy trucks – between 1923 and 2006.
The vehicle fleet on U.S. roads today gets a mere three miles more per gallon than vehicles in 1923.
That makes reaching the goal of a 35-mpg U.S. fleet average by the middle of the next decade seem overwhelming. It certainly will require a sea change in attitude, on the part of both consumers and manufacturers.
The average fuel efficiency of the U.S. fleet in 1923 was 14 mpg, where it stayed for more than a decade, according to the researchers. From 1935, however, fuel efficiency began a steady decline, dropping to a low of 11.9 mpg in 1973. The 1973-74 OPEC oil embargo then triggered a wave of innovation, and fuel efficiency of the U.S. fleet increased to 16.9 mpg by 1991.
But then it leveled off. From 1991 to 2006, fuel efficiency of the U.S. fleet increased by less than 2 percent – to 17.2 mpg.
So why aren't we seeing greater improvement, given that some of the newest cars today get close to 40 mpg?
One issue is mind-set. Over the years, the bulk of improvements to vehicles have been in comfort, styling and safety (power steering and brakes; air conditioning; electric windows, mirrors, seats and doors; CD players, etc.) – and less in fuel efficiency (think of the traditional inefficient belt-driven pumps that most cars still have).
Another issue has been the recent shift away from cars to light trucks, mainly sport-utility vehicles, for personal transportation. This, too, is a mind-set issue.
Yet another part of the problem is the number of older vehicles still on the road.
The researchers, however, point the way to improvements.
They believe it's better to focus our efforts on getting a 15-mpg vehicle to 16 mpg, which would save 50 gallons of fuel a year for a vehicle driven 12,000 miles a year, than on getting a 40-mpg car to 41 mpg, which would save only 7 gallons of fuel a year for the same driving distance.
So the researchers have two main recommendations to achieve change:
• Assist the development and introduction of new technologies to improve the fuel efficiency of low-mpg vehicles.
• Encourage the scrapping of older vehicles. If not Cash for Clunkers, then provide some other incentive.
And here, Ford's great Model T innovation – creating an economy car for people of modest means – deserves another look. Would you rather have electric windows and other bells and whistles or a more fuel-efficient car? American consumers, at a minimum, deserve that choice.
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