AUTUMN CRUZ / acruz@sacbee.com

AUTUMN CRUZ acruz@sacbee.com Nicole Tyson, 19, votes Wednesday at UC Davis. This year, many say, the skeptics will likely be proved wrong on the long-touted youth vote.

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Keen interest plus technology could add up to record youth vote

Published: Friday, Oct. 31, 2008 - 12:17 am | Page 1B

"Young people are voting and they are voting in record numbers because of the issues they care about." – Erica William, Campus Progress Action

For years, political experts talked about connecting with young voters as if they were harder to reach than a High Sierra summit. They don't have land-line telephones, don't show up on mailing lists. Worst, they don't care.

This year it's different.

A combination of keen interest among young people, and campaigns employing the kinds of electronic tools familiar to today's youth, has pollsters preparing for a historic turnout of young voters.

Based on polling and anecdotal evidence, election watchers predict young people will smash registration and turnout records along the way.

"The evidence so far indicates a massive increase in youth participating in the election next week," said author and youth-vote expert Eric Greenberg.

GOP consultant Sean Walsh said he wants to be wrong, but questions whether the youth vote will usher in the paradigm shift that others suggest.

"Every election it's like Linus waiting in the pumpkin patch," Walsh said.

Greenberg, the author of "Generation We: How Millennial Youth Are Taking Over America and Changing Our World Forever," is a believer. There's already been a nationwide surge in registration among young voters, and he's predicting a higher turnout on Election Day.

Field Poll Director Mark DiCamillo predicts a bump in people under 30 voting. He said the youth turnout could have a major impact on the fortunes of Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama and on Proposition 8, the state ballot initiative that would ban same-sex marriage.

Republican strategist Kevin Spillane remains unconvinced. A veteran political campaigner, he said young voters are more apt to be disengaged and represent a moving target for traditional campaigns.

"You can't phone-bank them. They're not in the phone book," he said.

It's those old-school polling methods that amuse young political activists.

Members of the Davis College Democrats shared a chuckle this week about a recent retreat at which an older campaign worker tried to teach them how to use the social networking site Facebook to reach potential voters.

"He didn't understand that we were already using it," said 20-year-old Jillian Miller.

But the episode did show the young campaigners that some "old guys" get it.

Rather than trying to lure potential voters to candidates' Web sites, Web-savvy candidates are reaching out, creating online social networking profiles that allow easy interaction. (Obama has 2 million Facebook "friends," while the largest profile for Republican John McCain has 200,000.)

In addition, organizations such as Rock the Vote have used Facebook and other sites to create applications, allowing users to nudge their existing online friends to register to vote or support a cause.

"It used to be that voting was uncool," said Heather Smith, executive director of Rock the Vote. Now, she said, young people are talking politics on the Internet.

On Tuesday, for example, the California Public Interest Research Group called on 500 college students on 15 campuses across the state to start "six degrees" chain action, urging people to support the high-speed rail bond measure on the state's Nov. 4 ballot.

The group reported that 166,014 e-mails were sent; 42,452 sent messages on Facebook; 4,925 text messages were sent; and 1,810 face-to-face conversations took place.

Assembly GOP staffer Emily Currin, 27, said she got caught in a Democratic Web after attending a Hillary Rodham Clinton debate-watching party.

"I'd get an e-mail every two days," said Currin. The most recent was a message from former President Clinton with an attached video.

"This is just from me signing in to one event," said Currin. "They have just done an excellent job keeping in touch with people they have only seen once."

Erica William, advocacy director for Campus Progress Action, said a key element is that young people have picked up the ball and are creating the content to benefit campaigns of their choosing.

"Young people are not only changing the face of the election, but they're also changing how politics work," Smith said.

But the youth surge is not just about technology.

Analysts say Obama's message, his youth and his personality allow him to connect with young people in a way few politicians have.

A Field Poll released Tuesday showed that 67 percent of likely voters between the ages of 18 to 34 support the Democratic nominee.

"I have to believe you will see more youth showing up and showing up for Obama, but the question is, is it a tidal wave?" Walsh said.

Jeremy Ogul, one of the editors of the University of California, Davis, student paper, said Obama has had a campaign and connection advantage.

"A lot of young people are just really excited about voting for someone young, someone that represents something new in American politics," Ogul said.

"Young people see this as a chance to be part of history."


Call The Bee's Ed Fletcher, (916) 321-1269.


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