Weather experts believe Northern California will see normal precipitation this winter – a welcome tonic after two years of drought.

It'll be just average, though. And these days, just average may not be enough.

There's disagreement about whether a normal year will be sufficient to completely erase a water-level deficit left by drought.

"Even if we get a nice, wet winter, there's still going to be difficulties," said Dave Kranz, a spokesman for the California Farm Bureau. It would take at least a couple years of good rain to replenish resources, he said.

Paltry rainfall during 2006 and 2007 marked the first time since the early 1990s that most of California saw two consecutive dry years. The state has so far shouldered the burden well, drawing on reserves and groundwater.

But the water supply can only stretch so far. Another dry season would likely mean mandatory restrictions on water use in many cities across the state – and would have a steep economic impact on everything from ski resorts to Central Valley farms.

Against that backdrop, several experts met recently to compare weather models at a San Diego conference sponsored by the California Department of Water Resources. One theme was that meteorological patterns in the Pacific Ocean would mean Northern California should have a typical winter, but Los Angeles and San Diego probably would see drought conditions persist.

"Just be glad you don't live in Southern California," Klaus Wolter, a University of Colorado climatologist who spoke at the conference, told The Bee. "It has a much higher likelihood of being dry."

So what does a normal rainfall year mean for the Sacramento region?

Most local cities should continue to do fine, though a crisis might only be forestalled, not avoided, said John Woodling, executive director of the Regional Water Authority in Sacramento.

"We are in pretty good shape," Woodling said. "If we get a normal water year, it probably keeps us where we were during this last year."

City leaders in Folsom, the local community most affected by drought, agree and are planning accordingly.

Folsom, which has little groundwater and draws from an oft-siphoned reservoir, recently declared a water alert, telling residents to limit watering lawns, and ordering restaurants to serve water only when it's requested.

A dry winter would likely mean stricter measures in Folsom. A normal year probably would mean existing restrictions stay in place, said Ken Payne, Folsom's utilities director.

Farmers and ranchers also are worried. During this drought, good rangeland has disappeared. Crops have withered sooner. And it could get worse.

"It'll take more than one year in the sense that you are already behind," said Jerry Maltby, owner of Broken Box Ranch in Williams. "(The drought) puts everyone in a real bind."

Maltby usually keeps his cattle out grazing until late May or early June. This year, he pulled them back in mid-April; there was no good rangeland. Maltby had to buy expensive feed for his cattle.

This year is even more precarious, Maltby and others said, because high cattle and crop prices seen during much of the drought have recently fallen, leaving little extra money for feed.

Just as worrisome is the state of Maltby's local reservoir, which is way below normal levels.

It's a justified concern, water experts say, because ranchers often find themselves at the bottom of the water-rights pecking order.

"The big cuts will be in the agricultural supply," said Maury Roos, chief hydrologist of the California Department of Water Resources, describing what will happen if there is another dry year. "The cities can buy their way out."

Roos, however, is more optimistic than most experts. He thinks a normal rainy season in Northern California would replenish reserves to pre-drought levels.

Tahoe ski resorts are also anxious about the upcoming season, though they have a more mixed recent history with the drought. Two years ago, the state's snowpack was far below average for much of the year. But during the most recent winter, things didn't get dry until late in the season – after snowfall had given ski resorts a solid base.

"We did receive quite a bit of snow," said Rachael Woods, spokeswoman for Alpine Meadows Ski Resort, referring to some large early and mid-winter storms last season. "So we had this wonderful spring ski season."

So far, signs are promising. Thanks to a large storm system around Halloween, Northern California rainfall levels are typical for this time of year. Most ski resorts will likely be opening in a couple of weeks.

Ultimately, though, everyone is making an educated guess: It could be months before the water situation becomes clear. Few would be happy, for instance, if the region enjoyed solid precipitation at the start of winter but the spigot turned off again around February.

This year, given the recent depletion of water reserves, the stakes are higher.

"It's a make-or-break winter," said Kelly Redmond, deputy director and climatologist at the Western Regional Climate Center. "We've been able to live off the buffer provided by the reservoir system. But some of the reservoirs are getting pretty low."

Call The Bee's Phillip Reese, (916) 321-1137.