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NFL Audible: JaMarcus a bust? Stats say he's not

Published: Saturday, Nov. 1, 2008 - 11:00 pm | Page 1C

A growing uneasiness percolates in Raider Nation.

The "B" word – bust – has yet to creep into the vernacular of Silver and Blackdom when it comes to the play of purported franchise quarterback JaMarcus Russell. Nor should it.

But impatient, pacing observers are waiting for "The Chosen One," as Russell has tattooed on his left arm, to become the "Second Coming" and lead the Raiders to the Promised Land. Like yesterday. Even if the No. 1 overall pick from the 2007 draft is in his first full NFL season.

Consider: On Fox Sports Net's "Pro Football Preview," host Jay Glazer wondered if he was crazy to say Atlanta rookie quarterback Matt Ryan will have a better career than Russell. Ryan and the Falcons are in Oakland today, adding drama to the debate.

"You're not crazy," said injured San Diego linebacker Shawne Merriman. "I think the talent and everything is there (in Russell), but the team? I don't see it."

Former Tennessee running back Eddie George agreed.

"You're not crazy," George said. "Matt Ryan has better mechanics right now, a better situation. He has a better career already."

Is there any surprise then, that there is such feverish hand wringing? Really, though, it should subside. Especially if expectations are lowered to a reasonable level.

Sure, Russell was drafted out of LSU to elevate the Raiders from the doldrums and Oakland is just 2-6 in his eight starts, but when you compare him to a handful of other quarterbacks taken with the draft's first pick, you see Russell is not off track (see chart).

Since the draft began in 1936, 27 quarterbacks have been taken No. 1 overall and just three are in the Hall of Fame: Terry Bradshaw (1970), John Elway (1983) and Troy Aikman (1989).

Russell, who has completed 53.5 percent of his 228 attempts for 1,482 yards with seven touchdowns and four interceptions in his first eight career starts, has better numbers than them through the same time frame.

Bradshaw's passer rating was a miserable 28.8 through his first eight starts. Elway's initial eight-start rating of 48.8 belied his future success, and Aikman was winless in his first eight starts.

That holy trinity went on to win a combined nine Super Bowls.

Even Peyton Manning, who should be enshrined in Canton five years after he throws his final pass, threw 16 interceptions in his first eight starts while losing seven times.

One thing all four have in common: They were their respective teams' starters from Week 1 and took their ensuing lumps while in relatively stable environments that nurtured their talents.

The Raiders? Not so much, with Russell playing for his third coach next season should Tom Cable, promoted after the Sept. 30 firing of Lane Kiffin, not be retained.

In such chaos reside such cautionary tales as Tim Couch, taken No. 1 overall by Cleveland in 1999; David Carr, selected first by expansion Houston in 2002; and, sadly for 49ers fans, 2005 top pick Alex Smith.

Other No. 1 picks such as Steve Bartkowski (1975), Vinny Testaverde (1987), Jeff George (1990), Drew Bledsoe (1993), Michael Vick (2001), Carson Palmer (2003) and Eli Manning (2004) have enjoyed modicums of success, with Manning joining older brother Peyton as a Super Bowl champion last February.

Jim Plunkett, Stanford's Heisman Trophy winner, resided in the busts camp early in his career after New England took him with the top pick in 1971. Then he went all Lazarus and won two Super Bowls with the Raiders.

He told The Bee last year that patience was key.

"It's difficult to perform when you're on your back or running for your life," said Plunkett, who completed 43.9 percent of his 187 passes for 1,067 yards with nine touchdowns and seven interceptions in his first eight starts.

Meaning a No. 1 overall pick goes to a horrendous team, barring a trade in which a better squad moves up in the draft or acquires that player's rights, as Denver did with the Colts to get Elway, or the New York Giants did to acquire Eli Manning from the Chargers.


Call The Bee's Paul Gutierrez, (916) 326-5556.


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