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Borrowers may get break; savers' suffering to worsen

Published: Thursday, Dec. 18, 2008 - 10:07 am | Page 1A

What does the Fed rate cut mean to you with a mortgage, car loan and credit cards?

You could be a winner if you have a home equity line of credit. But if you've socked away money in a savings account, you could be a loser.

Generally, though, it takes a while for the average person to see any effects at all. That's because even though cuts in the federal funds rate eventually tug most consumer interest rates downward, they're not directly linked.

And some experts believe these newest tugs may be limited, as lenders struggle with bad loans.

"What's driving consumer loan rates right now is loan loss rates. They're at all-time highs right now, and that constrains how much lenders can reduce their rate," said Henry Wirz, president and chief executive officer of Sacramento-based SAFE Credit Union.

Typically, the prime rate is first to drop following a Fed rate cut. The prime, which banks charge their favored customers, is expected to fall to 3.0 to 3.25 percent from 4 percent. That's down from 8.25 percent slightly more than a year ago.

Homeowners with equity lines of credit, which are linked to the prime rate, could score again when that happens. They've benefited throughout the year by the long series of rate cuts.

"A year ago, payments on a $50,000 line of credit would have been $302 a month. Today, it would be $166," said Karla Hawe, loan consultant for BWC Mortgage Services in Sacramento.

And if the Fed cut does pull down other rates, consumers could benefit in several ways.

• People shopping for a house can probably expect a cheaper monthly payment eventually, mortgage analysts said.

• That means it's looking better for those who can still refinance a home loan.

• Credit card holders also might see lower rates, depending on how much banks want to protect themselves from delinquencies.

• Same for car loans, said industry analyst Jesse Toprak of Edmunds.com, a Santa Monica-based automotive information site. Buyers with credit scores of 700 and higher may see slightly lower rates, he said, but "for most others it will not have a direct impact at all due to the impact of delinquencies and the credit crisis."

Tuesday's losers number in the millions.

They're known as savers.

"It means that rates will be lower and will probably continue to be lower until the economy recovers," said Wirz. "Borrowers are obviously the big beneficiaries of this."

Savings rates are under 1 percent now in some cases.

Sacramento-area mortgage brokers said they received the usual barrage of phone calls Tuesday as consumers typically – and mistakenly – assumed a similar-sized trim in mortgage rates.

"The fed funds rate being lowered has no direct bearing on mortgage rates," said Hawe. "But rates did drop today because of the inflationary numbers being very tame and housing starts being the lowest since 1959."

Like many in the industry, Brent Wilson, mortgage strategist at Sacramento-based Comstock Mortgage, saw rates dip as low as 4.875 for a 30-year fixed mortgage Tuesday.

Area brokers say it takes excellent credit to even get a home loan, however. Home equity loans, too, have become rare as the credit crisis has intensified. Worse, many seeking to refinance to better rates or out of adjustable-rate loans will find themselves blocked because they owe more than their homes are worth.


Call The Bee's Jim Wasserman, (916) 321-1102. Read his blog on real estate, Home Front, at www.sacbee.com/blogs.


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