It's become an annual ritual for 49ers fans. At the end of the season (and often well before that) attention turns to free agency and then to the draft. This year, however, you might as well skip ahead to the draft. Free agency promises to be quiet league-wide and especially so for the 49ers.
For one, they have two first-round draft picks and will focus on improving the team that way. The bigger picture, however, involves the collective bargaining agreement. All indications are that there will be no new CBA and that 2010 will be an uncapped year. This has generally been viewed as bad for players, which means it will be bad for free agency. The most coveted players - relatively young players who still have an upside -- who would have been unrestricted free agents will instead be restricted.
Take David Baas, for example. He's played five seasons, and under a normal year he'd be free to hit the open market. As it stands now, the 49ers can offer Baas the lowest tender possible and expect to retain him. That's because that lowest tender gives the 49ers the right to match the contract offered by any other team, and if they don't, would require any team that signs Baas to compensate the 49ers with a draft pick equal to the round in which Baas was taken in 2005. That's a second rounder - something a team would be very reluctant to give up for Baas.
The question is whether teams will pursue restricted free agents more aggressively this year than they've done in the past. After all, the pool of unrestricted free agents is smaller while the salary-cap restrictions have been removed. You don't have to worry about bookkeeping in 2010. The answer to that question, of course, remains to be seen, but it's doubtful we'll see a big run on restricted free agents.
Let's look at New England's Logan Mankins, for instance. The two-time Pro Bowler is perhaps the best guard in free agency and he's someone the 49ers targeted in 2005. The Patriots swiped him one pick before San Francisco and the 49ers were left with Baas. Mankins is from California, played at Fresno State and never has missed a game. He's exactly what the 49ers are looking for. The 49ers have a rare opportunity to turn back the clock.
But with no new collective bargaining agreement, the Patriots hold all the cards. If they offered Mankins the highest tender, something they are expected to do, any team that tries to sign him would have to give the Patriots first- and third-round draft picks as compensation. The 49ers, of course, have two first-round picks this year, but you still have to wonder whether that price is too steep. The 49ers also would have to sign Mankins to a long-term deal, which would be far heftier than what they would be paying a first-round pick.
-- Matt Barrows
