California By the Numbers

By Dan Walters

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July 2, 2008

Census Bureau gets it wrong on California voting

When last month's primary election drew ballots from scarcely 4 million Californians, well under a fifth of those potentially eligible to vote, it seemingly confirmed the years-long laments of political reformers, the media and some politicians about the state's lackadaisical attitude toward political participation.

We have been routinely scolded for having one of the nation's lowest levels of voting participation, a tendency that drives a demographic wedge between the state's overall population and the relatively few Californians who vote. Exit polls of voters have demonstrated repeatedly that voters are markedly older, whiter, better educated and more affluent than the adult population as a whole.

A new Census Bureau report seemingly undercuts that portrait of Californians' disinterest in voting, rating the state only slightly below the national average in voter turnout in the 2006 election and ahead of 22 other states. But the problem with the Census Bureau's report is that it's dead wrong, at least about California, which makes one suspect it's wrong about other states as well.

The operative number is the percentage of the voting eligible population - those 18 years or older and citizens - that cast ballots in November 2006, a non-presidential year. The Census Bureau pegged California's turnout at about 47 percent of the 22-plus million Californians who were eligible to vote (the number is a narrow range, not a precise figure), which would indicate that 10.7 million votes were cast in the state. In fact, however, just 8.9 million ballots were counted by California in that election, according to the final tabulation published by the secretary of state's office, for a turnout of 39.3 percent of those eligible.

So how did the Census Bureau get the wrong number? Oddly, it didn't use the actual voting data that California and other states publish, but rather based its turnout numbers on asking a sample of potential voters whether they had, in fact, voted. Clearly, a lot more people claimed to have voted than actually did vote.

The error on California leads one to suspect that the turnout numbers of other states are also skewed. The Census Bureau report pegs Utah as the lowest-voting state in 2006 at somewhere between 35 and 40 percent, which is just about where California truly belongs. So it would appear that California does have an extremely low voter turnout after all.

For what it's worth, Minnesotans have the highest proclivity to vote, if the Census Bureau data are to be believed, at about 65 percent. And if you want to look at the entire report, suspect though it may be, it's
available here.

Posted by Dan Walters on 11:23 AM | Comments

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July 1, 2008

Could California use private money for public works?

California has immense needs for investment in highways, flood control projects and other public works that cannot be met from public funds alone, and could benefit from an infusion of private capital through "public-private partnerships" or "P3s," according to a white paper published by the American Council of Engineering Companies of California, an engineering and construction trade group.

"It's clear to us that California's economic future relies on our state's ability to create a climate favorable to investment in new infrastructure and the upkeep of existing infrastructure," said ACEC California President Bill Green. "If the state fails to do this, it can potentially jeopardize the safety of the California's citizens and almost certainly have a negative impact on the state's economy.

"For example, the new white paper revealed that Australia has already estimated it is experiencing $6 billion a year in lost production as a result of a lack of public spending on infrastructure over the last 60 years. Given California's gross domestic product is roughly three times that of Australia, and given the similar shortfall in spending here in the last few decades, it wouldn't surprise us if California is losing $15 billion or more a year in production as a direct result of its clearly inadequate infrastructure."

The ACEC publication is the latest salvo in a years-long political war over how much of the state's infrastructure business - especially design work - should be shifted from civil service workers to private contractors. Professional Engineers in California Government and other public worker unions have stoutly, and largely successfully, thwarted privatization although the concept has enjoyed support from Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.

The white paper, entitled "Public-Private Partnerships: Creating Tomorrow's Infrastructure," surveys what's happening on the P3 front elsewhere in the United States and in other countries to make its case for the approach in California. It's available here.

Posted by Dan Walters on 10:10 AM | Comments

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June 27, 2008

Understanding oil prices - maybe

With gasoline prices causing no end of public angst, the University of California's Energy Institute has published a lengthy paper entitled "Understanding Crude Oil Prices."

It's timely, but it may take someone with an advanced degree in mathematics to truly understand what the paper's author, James Hamilton, is trying to say as he riffs through history and data. If you want to give it a try, the paper is available here.

Posted by Dan Walters on 11:33 AM | Comments

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June 25, 2008

Survey finds digital divide in California

California's social and economic stratification extends to Internet access and use, according to a new survey by the Public Policy Institute of California.

Overall, Californians' Internet use closely parallels that of the nation as a whole, the survey found, with some 78 percent of adults regularly using a computer at home or work and 73 percent using the Internet.

However, computer and Internet use is more prevalent among better educated and more affluent Californians, and Latinos' use of the technology is only about two-thirds that of white Californians.

Among English-speaking and/or U.S.-born Latinos, though, computer and Internet use is above average. Asian Americans have the highest technology connection of any ethnic group.

The state's highest rates of computer and Internet use were found in Orange and San Diego counties, with the Bay Area slightly behind, according to the survey.

The full survey is available through PPIC's Web site, here.

Posted by Dan Walters on 10:00 PM | Comments