Texas tops Cal in prison inmates

California has lost its standing among the states as having the most people locked up in prison, thanks to a drop in its inmate population, and Texas has surged to the lead in this dubious category, according to an exhaustive new study by the Pew Center on the States.

California could regain its top spot, however, because Texas is undertaking a massive effort to reduce its inmate population and associated costs, the Pew study found.

The overall thrust of the study is that many states face the same conflict between rising prison costs and the public's fear of crime that is evident in California, which has seen its prisons jump from some 20,000 inmates in 1980 to more than 170,000 today, and its costs rise to nearly 10 percent of the state budget.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, facing a huge and growing budget deficit, has proposed to trim those costs by easing up on parole policies but faces stiff opposition in the Legislature, especially from his fellow Republicans.

Although California’s prison costs are hefty, approaching $10 billion a year, it is actually sixth among the states – and tied with Texas – in the percentage of its general fund budget devoted to incarceration. Neighboring Oregon is the highest.

Pew also compared states' spending on prisons to that on higher education and found that liberal Vermont was the highest, spending $1.37 on prisons for every dollar spent on college while liberal Minnesota was the lowest at 17 cents for prisons per dollar for colleges. California was eighth highest at 83 cents for prisons.

The complete study is available here.

PACE sees silver lining on school cloud

The academic performance of California’s school children remains mired near the bottom among the states, but a University of California educational think tank has found a little silver on the edge of the clouds.

Policy Analysis for California Education (PACE), based at UC’s Berkeley campus, says that despite the state’s low educational rankings, public schools “have managed to hold steady or improve across subjects and grade levels, with graduation rates also eking upward in an era of lagging resources, a growing population and increasing diversity.”

“Californians have high expectations for their schools,” David N. Plank, executive director of PACE, said. “We have a long way to go to achieve those expectations, but it's important to recognize that our schools are generally moving in the right direction, in spite of huge obstacles to their success.”

Plank’s comments echo the general thrust of state schools Supt. Jack O’Connell’s position, that despite widespread educational achievement problems, there has been at least marginal improvement as measured by academic tests.

The PAC report, however, was issued just one day after Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and O’Connell revealed sanctions against dozens of school districts with particularly low performance records and a task force on high school dropouts demanded stronger action to reverse the syndrome.

Although Schwarzenegger once declared that 2008 would be the “year of education,” he’s now proposing multi-billion-dollar cuts in state school spending because of persistent budget deficits.

The PACE study is available here.

Immigrants less likely to be jailed

The Public Policy Institute of California has issued a lengthy statistical study of immigration and incarceration that’s certain to stir intense controversy – a study concluding that contrary to widespread belief, immigrants and even illegal immigrants are much less likely to wind up behind bars than native-born Californians.

It’s called “Crime, Corrections and California: What Does Immigration Have to Do with It?” and determined that while immigrants comprise more than a third of California’s population, their incarceration rates are less than half that proportion. Even 18- to 40-year-old noncitizens from Mexico – a group that’s largely illegal – have incarceration rates that are one-eighth of U.S.-born men in the same age cohort.

The study largely refutes the claim of anti-illegal immigration activists that the estimated 3 million illegal immigrants in California are the source of much of the state’s crime. It’s available here.

Voter registration both up and down

Secretary of State Debra Bowen has issued a statement crowing that “voter registration continues to increase,” which is technically true but nevertheless misleading, as a closer examination of her department’s data reveals.

Registration for the Feb. 5 presidential primary election was 15.7 million, a gain of just over 600,000 from the 15.1 million recorded four years earlier for the 2004 presidential primary, and when all the votes are tallied, it’s likely that about 9 million of those 15.7 million will have cast ballots.

Those 15.7 million registered voters, however, represented 68.47 percent of the state’s nearly 23 million eligible voters – i.e. Californians over the age of 18 and citizens – while the 2004 registration was 68.95 percent of the 21.9 eligible that year.

In that sense, therefore, voter registration has been going down, not up, continuing a decades-long pattern of declining political participation. More than 75 percent of eligible Californians were registered for the 1996 presidential primary, for instance.

Four years ago, Democrats claimed 43.2 percent of registered voters and Republicans 35.6 percent. This year, it was 43 percent Democrats and 33.3 percent Republicans, reflecting the long-term expansion of voters not aligned with any party. Independents were 16.4 percent of registration in 2004 and 19.4 percent now.

The historic data can be accessed here and the full registration report, broken down by county and legislative district is available here.

Farmland disappearing rapidly

As California’s population grows and urban areas expand, farmland is being converted into housing subdivisions, commercial development and other non-agricultural uses at a rapid rate, a new study by the American Farmland Trust concludes.

The report, entitled "Paving Paradise: A New Perspective on California Farmland Conversion," says that a sixth of all the farmland conversion since the Gold Rush nearly 160 years ago occurred between 1990 and 2004 – a half-million acres – and development appears to concentrate on the highest quality farmland. Roughly, the study funds, one acre of land is converted for every 9.4-person gain in population. It calls for more concentrated development in existing urban areas rather than additional farmland conversion.

The study is available here.

A spreadsheet version can be accessed here.

Houses still pricey in California

Although California housing prices have dropped sharply in recent months, thanks to the subprime mortgage meltdown, purchasing a home “remains out of reach even for middle-income Californians,” the liberal California Budget Project says in a new compendium of economic data.

Housing prices vary widely within the state, but so do incomes and in every county, and CPB’s study concludes that “the income needed to purchase the median-priced home exceeds the median household income and is more than double the median household income in 14 counties, 13 of which are in the San Francisco Bay Area and/or on the coast.”

Among other things, the study reveals that California’s rate of homeownership is the second lowest in the nation (behind New York) and asserts that renters are feeling the pinch as well.

The study is available here and a companion report of county-by-county housing data is accessible here.

Field Poll hits turnout on the nose

The folks at Field Research, California’s oldest opinion polling service, stepped in where Secretary of State Debra Bowen feared to tread by predicting a 56.6 percent voter turnout in last week’s election. And it appears Field hit it right on the nose.

Bowen, citing the unusual dynamics of the state’s first-ever February presidential primary, refused to issue her office’s customary pre-election prediction of turnout. Field, however, devised the 56.6 percent figure – some 8.9 million voters out of 15.7 million registered – from its telephone surveys.

As of Tuesday, as week after the election, county election officials had counted 7.73 million ballots and had another 879,000 provisional and mailed ballots yet to tally for a total of 8.6 million – not counting what may be left to count in huge Los Angeles County, where confusion over ballots has reigned. So it looks as if the final total will closely parallel Field’s prediction.

County-by county totals of ballots counted and left to count are available here and here.

State taxes still running below par

State tax revenues are continuing to run below budget projections, Controller John Chiang reported Friday, thus underscoring the state’s twin deficit and cash flow crises.

Revenues during January were $171 million below expectations, Chiang reported in his monthly bulletin on income and outgo, adding that the started the fiscal year last July 1 with $2.5 billion in its general fund cash account but in the seven months since has spent $13.2 billion more than it has taken in.

That cash imbalance is not unusual and the state has, as usual, financed the shortfall through short-term loans known as “revenue anticipation notes” or RANs and borrowing from other state funds, assuming that revenues will catch up when income tax returns are filed in a couple of months.

This year, however, state officials say the general fund faces a $3.3 billion deficit in the current fiscal year and another $12.2 billion gap between income and outgo in the 2008-09 fiscal year that will begin on July 1, and the Schwarzenegger administration and legislative leaders are negotiating on how to close the gaps.

Compounding the problem, the under-performing revenues will leave the state strapped to repay the RANs when they fall due in June, and even if enough cash can be assembled to pay the debts, it will leave the state strapped for cash in July and August.

Chiang’s report is available here.

Cal voters like early primary

California voters generally like having an earlier presidential primary election that gives them a voice in candidate selection, opinion surveyors from the University of California, Riverside, have concluded.

The survey of registered voters, conducted before Tuesday’s first-ever February primary, found that voters divide on whether California should move even earlier into the process to displace New Hampshire and Iowa as early tests.

“Voters do think the primary system is valuable and helpful,” said Shaun Bowler, professor and chair of the UCR Department of Political Science. “I don't think people reacted to the state’s new primary schedule as Californians, I think they reacted as voters. For example, there is a lot more resistance to changing the prominence of Iowa and New Hampshire than one would think. If people reacted to the primary as Californians only, you would expect a clear majority to favor downplaying those states – and a plurality do respond that way – but a sizeable number of voters see value in having Iowa and New Hampshire first.”

Bowler said California Democrats see the change to a February primary more positively and generally view the whole primary experience more favorably than do Republicans.

“I think this is a message about political reform more generally,” he said. “Reformers typically propose something that is a silver bullet for the political system: ‘move the primary up and suddenly California becomes a player’ and so on. But what these partisan differences suggest is that voters are motivated by the candidates and the contest itself – there is more enthusiasm on the Democratic side and that reflects enthusiasm for the candidates.

“The lesson for reformers of all stripes here is to give people someone to vote for. Stop talking about fixing this system or that system.”

The survey can be obtained here available here.

Immigration's big impact on California

Immigration’s impact on California is a two-fer, a new report by the Washington-based Center for Immigration Studies reveals. Not only does the state have, by far, the largest number of immigrant residents at just under 10 million, but the highest proportion at 27.6 percent.

The data are found in what CIS characterizes as “a profile of America’s foreign-born population,” a 40-page compendium of data. Overall, immigrants, both legal and illegal, account for 12.6 percent of the nation’s population, less than half of California’s nation-leading proportion. The lowest is West Virginia, which counts just 15,000 immigrants, less than 1 percent of its population.

When the offspring of immigrants are added, the numbers grow larger, approaching 38 percent of California’s nearly 38 million residents. Other data on births, deaths and domestic migration patterns indicate that more than half of the 500,000-plus babies born in California each year have immigrant mothers and that those babies and immigration together account for virtually all of the state’s population growth.

Not surprisingly, Latin America – and especially Mexico – is the largest single source of immigration to the United States, the CIS study found in its analysis of census data. Mexico alone accounts for nearly a third of legal and illegal immigration to the country and its post-2000 share appears to be climbing. Among other things, the study found that immigrants are somewhat more likely to be in poverty than native-born U.S. residents (15.2 percent vs. 11.4 percent) and immigrants’ median incomes (full-time workers) are also about one-fourth lower.

The full CIS report is viewable here.

Federal budget's effect on California

The California Institute for Federal Policy Research, a Washington-based organization supported by California business, government and non-profit groups to delve into California-related issues, has produced an initial look at the impact of President Bush’s new federal budget.

The program-by-program impact report includes a chart that shows California’s share of major federal expenditures both currently and under the new budget, which was released Monday. It can be accessed here.

UC economists see no recession yet

Although “recession” has crept into the popular media, especially in California due to the sharp decline of the housing industry, economists at the University of California, Santa Barbara, aren’t buying it – at least not yet.

The UCSB Economic Forecast Project’s view is that “so far, at least, California’s economy has been remarkably resilient,” as EFP director Bill Watkins writes in his organization’s latest look at the state’s data, citing several areas of strength, including manufacturing, that offset the housing losses.
“California's economy tends to be more volatile than that of the United States,” says Watkins. “The state does better than the rest of the country in the good times, and it does worse in the bad times. Consequently, as the United States economic growth slows, California's is likely to slow even more.

”So far at least, California's economy has been remarkably resilient, even as it has born a very disproportionate share of the United States housing crises. Indeed, only two California economic sectors, construction and non-durable manufacturing, have shown significant weakness. Mining and quarrying ticked down in 2007, but we expect that sector to pick up because of high oil and metal prices.
“Two of California's sectors have been especially strong. Durable manufacturing and information services have shown newfound and welcome strength. In the case of durable manufacturing, the growth is a result of productivity increases, as the sector has lost jobs. Many of California's sectors have benefited from rising productivity, and reduced jobs as output grew.
“This creates something of a dilemma for policy makers and economic analysts. Historically, the measure of economic growth has been job creation. However, the benefits of an economy are realized in consumption. I'm reminded of Al Capps' classic cartoon strip, Li'l Abner. Li'l Abner, Daisy Mae, and other characters lived in the stereotypical Appalachian town of Dogpatch. One of the characters was a Shmoo.
“The Shmoo's only source of happiness was pleasing people. Indeed, it was happy to be eaten. It would turn itself into any consumption item for people, and it was available in infinite supply. In Al Capps' view, the Shmoo ‘is the greatest menace to hoomanity th' world has evah known.’
“We're not going to have to face that situation anytime soon. However, California has many communities with a no-growth sentiment. The only way for a no-growth community to increase economic activity is through productivity growth.
“California's economy has benefited from more than increasing productivity. Increasing trade, imports and exports, has generated enough activity that all California ports are considering methods of expansion. The weak dollar has increased international demand for all of the State's exportable goods and services. Tourism has also benefited from the weak dollar, and this will continue to be a source of strength for California's economy.
“Retail sales have been particularly weak in California. The weakness, along with the weak real estate market poses severe challenges for county and city governments. Most of retail sales weakness is due to the housing market and a weak auto market. Low home starts obviously reduce building material and appliance sales. Reduced sales of existing homes also reduce building material and appliance sales. People typically invest in a home before a sale, to improve its saleability and market value. They also invest in a home after they purchase it.”
“Slow job growth, along with high (but falling) home prices has caused changes in California's migration pattern. Total net migration, international and domestic, has continually declined since 2001. In 2007, total net immigration was less than 112,000 people, or less than a third of 2001's approximately 374,000 people. One result of the change in net migration is that natural births now account for the bulk of California's population growth.
“The decline in net migration is a result of domestic migrations. International migration is much less volatile than is domestic migration. International migration is driven by poor economic conditions at the point of origination. Domestic migration is more sensitive to relative economic opportunity.
“Apparently large numbers of Californians are finding more economic opportunity outside the State than within. This is now becoming something of a long-term trend. California's domestic migration has been negative in 10 of the past 15 years. One result of these migration patterns is that the State's school districts have seen declining attendance for three consecutive years.”
EFP’s detailed forecast for California and the nation is available via CD by subscription. The organization can be contacted available here.

How many voters will turn out?

The dynamics of the Feb. 5 presidential primary election are so unusual that the secretary of state’s office, for the first time in memory, is not making any kind of forecast about voter turnout.

Anecdotal evidence, such as early mail ballot, indicates that with two highly contested races for presidential nominations, turnout of the state’s 15.7 million registered voters could be heavy – but that’s a very relative term in California, where overall voter participation tends to be lower than that of other states.

The last presidential primary was in March 2004, and by the time the presidential cavalcade reached California that year, President Bush and Sen. John Kerry had their parties’ nominations locked up and just 44.3 percent of registered voters cast ballots, about 10 points lower than 2000’s presidential primary.

It’s been decades since California played a real role in choosing presidential nominees, at least back to 1972 and perhaps 1968, depending on how one judges such things. And turnouts were much higher then, 72.2 percent in 1968 and 71 percent in 1972. But even in 1976, without much of a contest in either party, turnout was 72.6 percent. The decline in presidential primary voting began in 1980 and has continued ever since.

The statistical history of primary voting in California, both presidential and otherwise, back to 1916, is available here.