Dan Walters' Capitol Q&A

Question: Dan, my impression is that there is a $6 billion budget "gap" which is really a deficit that has not been closed. I believe we have deficits from previous years that have not really been dealt with either. Is this true and do you know the total amount?
-- Michael Haley, Napa

Answer: There is a persistent operating deficit roughly of the size you mention and both the administration and the Legislature's budget analyst say that it will continue at least for the remainder of this decade. Past deficits have been covered by borrowing either from private lenders or internally from restricted funds.
--Dan Walters

Question: Do you believe voters will support the February partial primary? What size turnout do you expect for the super February 2008 presidential primary? Do you see a voter reaction to Christmas campaigning? Will it help or hinder the June primary? Do you believe voters will change term limits in January?
-- Tom Martin, Riverside

Answer: It's difficult to gauge turnout because it will depend on the presidential dynamics of that moment. If there are still serious contests in one or both parties, the turnout could be fairly high. But if not it could be abysmally low - and and that will impact whatever ballot measures are also being placed before voters. If one is term limit extension, I think it would pass only if the governor is aboard and he says he won't support it unless resdistricting reform is also placed before voters. Whatever happens in February, it will depress turnout for the June primary because it will not have a presidential, senatorial or gubernatorial primary to attarct voters.
--Dan Walters

Question: Today, the new (old) news is that the California presidential primary is now February 2008. What is your opinion about new initiative propositions being moved up from having to wait until the June 2008 legislative primary? What about new opportunities for nonpartisan independent presidential candidates on the November 2008 general election ballot ... maybe even a California favorite-son candidate? Is there an independent Ronald Reagan waiting to emerge?
-- Connor Vlakancic, San Jose

Answer: None of the latter events are likely to happen. But as I have written, allowing initiatives to go on this or any other primary ballot distorts the outcome because primary turnouts are low, weighted toward the party with the most interesting contests and virtually exclude independent voters. We should go back to the pre-1960 practice of placing measures only on November general election ballots.
--Dan Walters

Question: When the Senate passed SCA3 they amended out nesting (two contiguous Assembly Districts comprise one Senate District). That allows gerrymandering, no matter who is doing it. Is the Legislature likely to pass a meaningful reapportionment bill in exchange for amending term limits? If not, who is watching the store?
-- Warren Conklin, Atascadero

Answer: Chances of something emerging on redistricting this year are less than 50-50 because of the issue's many political complications. Other than term limit modification, theres very little reason for Democrats to do it.
--Dan Walters

Question: You really have an understanding of the political possibilities and I was wondering what your thoughts were on the outcome of the education studies just released. Do you think the studies will have any real impact on K-12 education or will they simply collect dust on a shelf?
-- Stephen Corl, Lemoore

Answer: As I said in a recent column, the political positions on education are very rigid. Ask me again after governor's commission issues its recommendations next fall.
--Dan Walters

Question: I am a state worker with about 25 years service time. I have been following with interest the governor's commission on retirement benefits. Tell me if this scenerio could play out: We are reaching critical mass when it comes to retirement and health care benefits for retirees. To solve the problem, the Legislature and the governor agree to end further enrollment in CalPers for new or very short-tenure employees. In return, they do what some local governments are doing, and begin to raise pay levels to make up for the cuts in benefits.
-- Joe Bosso, Benicia

Answer: A more likely scenario, but still not probable, is to return to the two-tiered retirement system that California briefly had in 1990s, with new employees getting a lesser defined-benefit program but perhaps a defined-contribution supplement, as many private employers do. Over time that would stabilize the state's retirement costs and if the state does it locals might as well.
--Dan Walters

Question: Why are Democratic legislators so reluctant to build additional prisons to relieve the gross overcrowding? In my mind it would be a crime if the federal government takes significant action to resolve the problem because of the Legislature's failure to act, and the Legislature should be held criminally accountable.
-- Robert Pierce, Oroville

Answer: They are probably willing to do it if they get some concessions on early releases and/or softening some penalties to reduce prison load as well.
--Dan Walters

Question: Presumably there is no incentive for politicians from either party to address the bizarre imbalance in residential property taxes since high taxes bring down the state budget deficit. My neighbors that have owned basically the same house as mine, but for many years longer than I have, pay a small fraction of what I do (my property taxes are $400 a month - same as all of my and my wife's federal income taxes combined!). Are any conservatives/libertarians doing anything to stop such tax madness?
-- Eric Pierce, Sacramento

Answer: Proposition 13 remains very popular among voters, the vast majority of whom are middle-agred or older homeowners and beneficiaries of its provisions, so there's absolutely no political appetite for attempting to change it.
--Dan Walters

Question: Public employee costs are out of control. In San Jose, two-thirds of the annual budget in needed to fund employee costs. Salary increases of 45 percent were approved when inflation was 15 percent. Police/Fire now retire at 90 percent of the highest salary and claim disability to avoid taxation. Davis gave Public Employees a pension boost on his last day compounding the current problem. It is truely the pits. Politicians never have to answer to these outragious give aways. We see fewer public employees as the future solution, as we are already taxed to the max. Do you have a view?
-- John, Saratoga

Answer:Public employee pensions and retiree health care costs are political issues with rising public profiles and there will be a climactic point as their costs continue to rise.
--Dan Walters

Question: Any analysis on California community colleges and what the future holds for these educational institutions?
-- Salvador Sanchez, Los Angeles

Answer: The future should be bright, since demand for both college-level and technical classes will continue to grow, but the CC's are somewhat hampered by their stepchild political status, squeezed between powerful K-12 interests and the four-year college systems. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is a community college advocate. But whether they get their rightful share of construction and operational funds depends on their ability to marshall broader political support.
--Dan Walters

Question: Does the State of California have a tax credit for buying a hybrid car similar to the tax credit that the Fedral government gives for buying a hybrid car? If not will there be a state one soon?
-- Javan Reid, McKinleyville

Answer: California does not have such a tax credit now, but at least two bills to grant such a credit have been introduced this year so it's possible that one will be enacted, although the state is running multi-billion-dollar budget deficits and any tax credits would exacerbate the income-outgo gap.
--Dan Walters