March 22, 2007

How to build California's clout

Now that he's moved California's presidential primary up to Feb. 5, 2008, the governor thinks the media should press the presidential candidates to explain why the state "gets back" only 79 cents on every dollar its taxpayers contribute to the federal treasury.

Short answer: We are a "donor state" because we are relatively wealthier and relatively younger than other states. Our wealthy taxpayers pay a lot of taxes, and our younger population uses fewer services than people in states where a lot of older folks are on Medicare and Social Security.

So if we want our balance of payments with the feds to change, we should get poorer, and older. Or stop taxing rich people. I doubt any presidential candidates are going to come out for any of those ideas.

Actually, the governor's health care plan, with its $4 billion or so in new federal money and several billion more in tax benefits, would do a lot to change those numbers, if he can get it through the Legislature. And he doesn't even need help from a president or a pledge from a presidential candidate to do that.

I don't think moving the primary is going to give California more clout in Washington. Bill Clinton paid close attention to the state because it had a history of voting Republican, went Democratic for him, and he wanted to keep it that way. George W. Bush has pretty much ignored the state because he lost in a landslide here in 2000 and figured there was not much he could do to change that in 2004. He was right.

California will be part of a big urban primary day in 2008, joined, apparently, by New York, Florida, Illinois and New Jersey, among others. So we're not going to get special attention. But we would get it in the general if the candidates thought the state was in play.

So in the end, the biggest thing Schwarzenegger could do to increase California's clout is persuade his fellow Republicans nationally to nominate a candidate who has a chance to win here. But he has already said he probably won't endorse anyone in the primaries.

Posted by dweintraub on March 22, 2007 2:11 PM