December 6, 2007

2005 all over again?

The governor is backing a redistricting initiative sponsored by Common Cause and some other reform groups. He is threatening to back a water bond being pushed by his business allies. And there is even talk that he would get behind a health care measure that the restaurant industry might push if he can't cut a deal with the Democrats in the Legislature.

So is he headed for another debacle at the polls, ala 2005?

The context is certainly different this time around. No one can argue that he didn't try to work with the Legislature on these issues. Many might suggest that he has tried too much. Also, these issues, while they expose ideological splits, are not as prone to being characterized as partisan as the issues he backed in '05, especially the union dues initiative. Finally, these measures would be on a regular ballot, not a special election, where the focus was all on him and the voters rebelled, in part, because of the process as much as the policy.

Still, it seems like a risky strategy. The health care and water bonds would likely face strong opposition from interest groups, labor in the case of the health care measure and environmentalists on the water bond. There might even be competing initiatives on both topics. And if the Democrats oppose the
redistricting initiative, it will almost certainly go down. Recent history around the country -- and here -- suggests that no attempt to reform redistricting can succeed without the support of the majority party.

On the other hand, the risk is simply that the measures he backs will lose. And he already is getting nowhere on these issues in the Legislature. Since he cannot run for another term and likely will not run for another office, Schwarzenegger need not worry about spending down his political capital. And since it won't be a special election, the focus won't be on him as much. If they lose, they lose, and while it would hurt his image, such a defeat wouldn't be fatal. Heck, even his disaster in 2005 was not fatal to his career.

So while taking this road would be a calculated risk, and winning on any of the three might be a longshot, Schwarzenegger still might see it as a risk worth taking. Given the wall he has hit in the Legislature, his only other alternative if he wants to get anything done is to truly become what a lot of his conservative critics say he already is: a Democrat posing as a Republican.

Posted by dweintraub on December 6, 2007 7:37 AM