January 30, 2008

Prop. 93's best hope: uninformed voters

The latest LA Times poll shows Prop. 93 still leading, but by a narrow 50-46 margin that is within the poll's margin of error. Conventional wisdom (based on recent history) suggests that the term-limits measure is doomed, because voters are breaking against it, it's confusing, and typically a ballot measure needs to go into Election Day with a decent lead in order to survive.

I tend to assume that all of this is true for 93 as well. But don't forget the ballot description that opponents have been complaining about from the beginning. That description emphasizes that the initiative reduces the total time a lawmaker can serve from 14 years to 12 years. Before the campaign began, voters who were read that description by pollsters broke solidly in favor of the measure. Since then, many who have learned exactly how the initiative works have turned against it.

But many of the people who vote on Tuesday will be looking at the measure for the first time. When they read the ballot summary, they will probably break in favor of it. If there are enough of those voters, they could make the difference in a tight race.

I'm not saying that this is going to happen. But it might.

Posted by dweintraub on January 30, 2008 9:30 AM