A creative idea to save the state park system

The Assembly's lead budget writer proposes a $10 surcharge on auto registration to fund state parks while eliminating day use fees. He says he would be willing to make the fee voluntary if that's what it takes to pass. That might be a good idea. Make day use free for those who pay the annual fee, and charge everyone else (including out of state folks) when they show up at the gate. Currently, Californians can buy an annual day-use pass for $125.

Tour of America to end in California

Organizers of the first "Tour of America" -- a three week cycling race in the style of the Tour de France -- have released their tentative schedule for the event in 2009. The race would begin in Central Park and end in San Francisco. It would enter California on Sept. 22 with a stage from Reno to Tahoe City. It would continue Sept. 23 to Nevada City and Sept. 24 to Sacramento. On the 25th there would be an individual time trial in Sacramento. On the 26th the race would go from Davis to Santa Rosa, then finish with a stage from Santa Rosa to San Francisco on Sept. 27. More details here.

Oil from algae?

This certainly sounds like good news.

Can California still afford two houses?

Jim Boren says we need a unicameral Legislature.

Priming the pump

Here is an excellent primer, from the AP, on what makes up the price of a gallon of gas.

One healthy run of salmon

While salmon are scarce just about everywhere else in the west this year, the run in Butte Creek outside of Chico remains healthy. The Chronicle examines what was done to save the Butte Creek salmon and explores whether lessons learned could be applied elsewhere.

The American River

People say newspapers are great because when you read them, you stumble on information you didn't know you needed. That's true, but it is also true of the Internet. I was just searching to confirm a minor fact about one location on the American River and I found two great web sites with tons of information about the river and its surrounding area.

One is TheAmericanRiver.com, a very attractive, clean and informative site sponsored by business interests who depend on the rafting community. The picture above is just one of many beautiful shots from their site. I encourage you to explore it. From there I linked to North Fork Trails of the American River. That site is a blog by Russell Towle, who loves the wild lands of the North Fork and is using the blog to share his knowledge while campaigning for both preservation and improved access.

Top local high schools, so says Newsweek

Six Sacramento area schools made Newsweek's list of the top public high schools in America. They were:

232. Mira Loma
595. Rio Americano
1096. Franklin
1076. Valley
1296. Elk Grove
1345. Bella Vista

Teen birth rate climbs for first time in 15 years

A study by the Public Health Institute reports that California's teen birth rate edged up in 2006, for the first time in 15 years. The rate rose from 37.2 births per 1,000 teen-age girls to 37.8 births. For some perspective, 15 years ago the rate was 71 per 1,000 teen girls. And in Texas, which has similar demographics to California, the rate remains 64 per 1,000 girls.

You can read the full report here.

Lottery v. sales tax and Prop. 98

I was on a panel Tuesday with Liz Hill talking about the budget and she addressed an issue that has not received a whole lot of play: the difference between using the lottery money and a temporary sales tax hike to plug the hole in Schwarzenegger's proposed budget. The lottery money, she said, would not count as revenue for purposes of calculating Prop. 98. A sales tax would. So if you raised the sales tax by $6 billion, some portion of that money would go to the schools, and you would still need more money or cuts elsewhere to close the budget gap. Further, the money that went to schools from a temporary sales tax increase would likely add to the education budget base. If the tax expired, the commitment to education funding would continue. Head hurting yet?

Another "victim" of the mortgage crisis

Outrage of the day? This Capitol Weekly story on Congresswoman Laura Richardson walking away from the mortgage on her Curtis Park home and then using campaign funds to pay herself back money she loaned her campaign.

In case the lottery deal does not work out...

Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell just announced a $12.8 billion high bid from a private consortium that wants to lease the Pennsylvania Turnpike for 75 years.

The Schwarzenegger brand

The money and politics blogger at US News and his commenters debate Schwarzenegger's call for a "rebranding" of the Republican Party.

The assimilation debate

Here is a piece by Jacob Vigdor explaining his "assimilation index," which has been cited by both suppoters and opponents of immigration to support their case. Vigdor says immigrants from most countries are assimilating at least as quickly as did immigrants from 100 years ago. But immigrants from Mexico are the main -- and very important -- exception.

So Cal housing market heats up

Sales surged in April but were still 19 percent below the same month a year ago.

Howard Berman: in praise of secrecy

From Rep. Howard Berman, the new chairman of the House Foreign Affairs committee and chief defender, in California, of gerrymandered political districts:

''Sometimes the best things are done when the media doesn't know about it, because then a lot of other people don't know about it,'' Berman said. ''The media is a conduit of information to the people who wouldn't like what I was doing.''

From this AP profile, via Kevin Roderick and the NYT.

LAO: lottery bonds probably necessary

The legislative analyst blasted the govenor's lottery proposal as overly optimstic, but, like a lot of people, she also said it would be difficult to balance the budget without it. So she has proposed an alternative that would advance only $5 billion, rather than $15 billion, from future, increased lottery revenues. And she has reworked her alternative proposed budget so that it balances every year rather than leaving the state with a new $5 billion shortfall two years from now, as the governor's plan would do.

An entreprenurial nation

This is an observation that goes to the heart of what I think is the most important change underway in California and the nation, and one that neither major political party really understands:

The most compelling statistic of all? Half of all new college graduates now believe that self-employment is more secure than a full-time job. Today, 80% of the colleges and universities in the U.S. now offer courses on entrepreneurship; 60% of Gen Y business owners consider themselves to be serial entrepreneurs, according to Inc. magazine. Tellingly, 18 to 24-year-olds are starting companies at a faster rate than 35 to 44-year-olds. And 70% of today's high schoolers intend to start their own companies, according to a Gallup poll.

An upcoming wave of new workers in our society will never work for an established company if they can help it. To them, having a traditional job is one of the biggest career failures they can imagine.

California loses another 800 jobs

Here is economist Stephen Levy's quick take on this morning's California jobs report from the Employment Development Department:

Seasonally adjusted wage and salary jobs declined 800 in March after a downward revision of 3,100 for March. Job levels in April were 23,400 or 0.2% above April 2007.

CA's unemployment rate remained at 6.2% in April, 3rd highest behind
Michigan (6.9%) and Alaska (6.7%).

The largest job losses in April were recorded in construction (-4,100),
manufacturing (-2,600), professional and business services (-1,400).

Continuing the trend of recent months, job growth was focused in three
sectors --education and health services (+1,800), leisure and hospitality
(+3,300) and government (+5,400).

Interestingly government jobs are up 48,200 from a year ago, which means
that private sector job levels fell slightly (-25,800) between April 2007
and April 2008.

The slowing economy in California is reflected in the new economic
assumptions accompanying the May budget revise.

The new economic forecast anticipates a loss of 30,000 jobs in 2008 compared
to the anticipated gain of 106,000 jobs included in the January budget
proposal. Personal income growth is now forecast at 4.5% in 2008 and 4.1% in
2009 compared to 4.8% and 5.2% in the January budget.

Job growth in 2009 is now forecast to be 85,500 jobs, much lower than the
160,300 gain forecast in January.

The implication of the slowing economy is that budget woes will continue
into 2009 and 2010, even if the economy rebounds modestly as expected.

The "wild card" at this point is how consumers will respond to the slowing
job picture combined with rising gas and food prices and continuing declines
in home prices. A sharp slowdown inc consumer spending is the major threat
that could turn a mild and short slowdown into a more severe recession. So
far consumers have responded with some shifts in spending patterns but have
also borrowed heavily by increasing credit card debt as home equity loans
become less available to them.

Fattening up the farmers

Here is the roll call on the House's veto-proof vote in favor of the farm bill to make rich farmers richer with public money. Looks like almost all California Democrats voted in favor with their leader, Nancy Pelosi. At least half of California Republicans opposed it. In the Sacramento area, Matsui, Thompson, Herger and Doolittle were yes votes. Lungren was a no.

Local warming

The story used to be that you didn't get a state budget until the temps topped 100 degrees, and then you got one fairly quickly because of the lack of AC in the Capitol. Well we are nowhere near to a budget. But we are approaching 100 degrees. As the temperature in Sacramento nears the century mark for the first time this year, here's some handy 100-degree background from our friends at the National Weather Service:

For downtown Sacramento...

1. Last year... the first 100 degree reading or higher occurred on
June 13th.

2. The total number of 100 degree readings or higher in 2007
was 16.

3. The average number of days with 100 degree readings or higher in
a calendar year is 22.

4. The most 100 degree readings or higher in a month is 17... set
July 1988 and in July 2003.

5. The most 100 degree readings or higher in a calendar year is 41
times set in 1988.

6. The earliest it has reached 100 degrees or higher in a calendar
year is may 4th in 1990.

7. The latest it has reached 100 degrees or higher in a calendar
year is October 10th in 1991.

8. The record for most consecutive days with 100 degree readings or
higher is 11 set in 2006... from July 16th to July 26th.

9. The record for most consecutive days without reaching 100 degrees
is over 1100 days set August 1879 to August 1882.

10. The least number of 100 degree readings or higher in a calendar
year is none... set 3 times. The last occurrence was in 1907.

11. The least number of 100 degree readings or higher the last 25
years during a calendar year is 5 times set in 1982.

12. The hottest day in recent memory was 112 degrees on July 10th
2002.

13. The hottest day in Sacramento history was 114 degrees set on
July 17th 1925. Actually the temperature reached 113.6 degrees on
that day which rounded up to 114 degrees.

14. It has reached 113 degrees just one additional time in
Sacramento history on July 14th 1972.

Gay marriage ruling

So the Supreme Court has made gay marriage legal in California, ruling that banning same sex marriage amounts to an unconstitutional discrimination against gay couples. The 4-3 ruling was written by Chief Justice Ron George and joined by Moreno, Werdeger and Kennard. The dissenters mostly argued that the majority was usurping the role of the Legislature and the people to make this decision and that the distinction between marriage and domestic partnerships did not amount to unlawful discrimination. Justice Corrigan, Schwarzenegger's sole appointee to the court, was among the dissenters. She wrote that while she supports gay marriage, she did not think it was within the court's power to overrule a vote of the people on the matter. And further, she said, she feared that doing so might lead to a backlash that would lock the gay marriage ban into the constitution, overturning today's ruling.

And that is exactly what might happen. A measure that appears to be headed for the November ballot would write the ban into the constitution. And with this ruling unleashing a wave of gay marriages, opponents of the practice are going to be mobilized like never before. Support for the ban, enacted in 2000, appeared to be waning in California before today. A ballot measure to legalize gay marriage might well have succeeded at some point in the next few years. But by stepping in and short-circuiting the political process, the court might in the end accomplish the opposite of its intention. It's possible the new ban will fail at the polls. But it will probably start out as an early favorite.

Read the full opinion here.

Schwarzenegger can't -- or won't -- balance the budget

The governor's revised budget would give more to schools and less to health and welfare than he proposed in January, but the real story is his proposal to use lottery revenues to bridge the stubborn gap between spending and tax collections. Schwarzenegger's press staff is furiously trying to portray the lottery deal as something other than borrowing, but borrowing it is. The state would change the game's rules in ways designed to attract more business, then lean on private investors for $15 billion in up-front payments. That advance on lottery revenues would be repaid over 30 years from the new proceeds generated by the changes. But the up-front money runs out after three years, and guess what happens then: Yup: the budget deficit reappears, unless there's an economic miracle between now and then. Ironically, if there were an economic surge and the governor's revenue-averaging proposal were in place, the state couldn't spend the new money and would still be left with a shortfall to cover. That persistent shortfall, at least according to the governor's numbers, is in the range of about $5 billion to $6 billion a year. Fixing that would be the next governor's problem.

UPDATE: OK, I think David Crane from the governor's office might have persuaded me that legally, the lottery transaction would not be "borrowing." He says the state would have no obligation to repay the $15 billion if the lottery changes didn't generate the proceeds to do the job. If that were the case, then the investors would be taking the risk, and the state would be off the hook. I do find it hard to believe that anyone would make such a deal without a really, really, high expected rate of return, or what you might call an interest rate if this were a loan, to compensate for the risk.

Fiscally, however, the effect of the transaction is still the same as borrowing. The state has a potential revenue stream, and instead of letting it roll in naturally, it captures it all up front, then in exchange gives up the revenue stream for an extended period, with interest (or a rate of return). If the upfront money is used to plug a gap between spending and tax revenue, as Schwarzenegger has proposed, then it's just another form of deficit spending, and when the lottery money runs out, you're screwed.

UPDATE 2: Two more arguments for calling this borrowing. First, the fact that the new proceeds from the expanded lottery are not the only thing pledged to repay the investors. If that money is not sufficient to make the scheduled payment, the current lottery revenue stream, the part now going to the schools, would be used. So the state does have its money at risk. Second, the due dillegence papers the state commissioned on this deal and distributed to reporters refer to the annual payments as "debt service." It's hard to pay debt service when you don't have a debt.

Gay marriage ruling due

Geoffrey Kors of Equality California says the Supreme Court is slated to issue its ruling on Thursday. The group is planning rallies around the state, win or lose.

Plug and play

Nissan plans to mass market an electric car by 2010.

Nestle scales back bottled water plant

Responding to environmental concerns, Nestle has scaled back its plans for a huge water bottling plant at the base of Mt. Shasta.

Zero-emission power plant

A Rancho Cordova company is designing one of the largest experiments around to inject CO2 from a power plant into the earth rather than emitting the gas into the atmosphere.

Those $10,000 teacher bonuses

One detail I wasn't able to cram into this column on fourth-grade teacher Elizabeth Nesci: she says she moved to California from Florida after seeing former Gov. Gray Davis touting education reform in a speech on C-Span. Davis was laying out his accountability plan and proposing a $10,000-bonus for teachers with certificates from the National Board for Professional Teaching Standards.

Charter schools work

This story on a new school-within-a-school at LA's notoriously bad Jefferson High School is interesting not just because the students in the smaller school are doing so much better. It's interesting because it shows that LA Unified is focused on competing with private and especially charter schools that are taking enrollment away from the district's traditional campuses. And that kind of competition is exactly what charter schools were designed to create.

Vallejo's revenues

The city council of Vallejo voted Tuesday night to file for bankruptcy protection. FYI, the most recent annual reports from the state controller show that the city's general purpose revenues climbed dfrom $42 million in 1998-99 to $62 million in 2004-05, a 50 percent increase. Restricted revenues grew at an even greater clip. I'd like to see the figures for the current year to see how they fit that trend.

UPDATE: Vallejo's city website has a different set of revenues numbers that go back to 03-04. According to their chart, general fund revenues were $70.2 million in 03-04, $82.8 million in 04-05, $81.1 in 05-06, $84.8 in 06-07 and $85.8 in the current year.

Pomona bans sex offenders

Pomona has essentially banned convicted sex offenders from legally moving into the city. Opponents of Proposition 83 on the 2006 ballot, known as Jessica's Law, warned that the measure would lead to this and now it has. First came registration, then disclosure, which was great. Then came GPS. Now a ban (accomplished by extending the perimeter around schools, parks and other "sensitive areas" within which sex offenders may not live). Prosecutors in other states that have tried similar approaches have warned that the policy is counterproductive because it drives sex offenders underground -- they live where they can get a place and just don't register. And if they do comply, they are forced to live in rural areas far from their families or the kind of services that might help them deal with their problem. Seems like we should keep criminals locked up until they have done the time society deems appropriate or we consider them safe to be on the street.

Nunez reform ideas

Outgoing Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez has introduced a three-part political reform proposal that includes a redistricting commission, a liberalizing of term limits and a ban on fundraising from May 15 until a budget is enacted. Nunez released his proposal on the same day that a bipartisan coalition of political and civic leaders (including Gov. Schwarzenegger and former Gov. Gray Davis) and government reform groups submitted what they say will be enough signatures to qualify their redistricting measure for the November ballot.

The key to understanding Nunez's redistricting measure is what he says is its most important feature: it requires that "communities of interest" take priority in drawing district lines over existing city and county boundaries or geographic features. The problem with that idea is that communities of interest can mean pretty much anything, so if your first priority is to keep a "community" together, you could meander half way across the state to do so, ignoring all other traditional methods of political or civic organization.

In the proposal that appears headed to the ballot, communities of interest get equal weight with the other factors, an idea that some Republican insiders already fear is a way to allow Democrats to pick up more seats and possibly win a two-thirds majority in one or both houses of the Legislature. Putting communities of interest at the top of the list (after the federal Constitution and the Voting Rights Act) is an absolute non-starter for most Republicans and many independents and government reform groups.

The Nunez measure also states explicitly that the districts would not be nested, where each Senate district consists of two Assembly districts combined. When you don't have nesting, and you have three or four or more assembly members representing pieces of one Senate district, you create an disincentive for members to work with each other, even and sometimes especially within the same party. Nobody wants to help a fellow member against whom they might be running next month.

On the bright side, the term limits proposal looks fairly sound -- the shift applies only to future members -- and the fundraising ban is harmless if also largely meaningless. Most of the money would simply be donated anyway, before or after the black-out period, but lobbyists would certainly be grateful to be free or mostly free of fundraising pitches while they are working on budget issues.

But on redistricting, Nunez had a chance to lead and didn't do it. Same for term limits. Unfortunately, his time is now past.

Between a rock and a hard place

This fight over a quarry proposed near Temecula might be a sign of things to come as the cosntruction industry searches for new sources of gravel to build all the highways and bridges that will be funded by the Prop 1B transportation bond.

The market for nurses

We hear a lot of talk about the shortage of nurses in California and elsewhere. A federal study recently projected a shortage of 1 million nurses nationwide by 2020. But this article by a Georgia economist says not to worry. Rising wages and an expansion of training programs, he predicts, will increase the supply of nurses to meet the demand. In fact, he says, it's already happening.

A tiny fly leads to big salmon

Whenever an endangered species battle erupts over a lowly insect, conservative politicians and pundits try to mock those who want to save the bug from extinction. But Matt Weiser's story in today's paper on a newly discovered fly species in the Yolo Bypass west of Sacramento shows why every critter can be important: this one seems to lead to a big surge in the salmon population (and size) when the bypass floods and the young fish get a chance to feed on the flies.

Bad news on water supply front

Frank Gehrke measures the paltry snow depth near Echo Summit in the Sierra.

Frank Gehrke has been checking the snow's depth and water content every winter and spring for 21 years, and he's rarely seen less snow than he did today near Echo Summit in the Sierra. In a tradition that is Calfornia's answer to Groundhog Day, Gehrke shoves a hollow metal tube into the snow at 7 spots, each 50 feet apart, behind Phillips Station at 6,800 feet just off Highway 50. Then he averages the depth of the snow he finds and from that, and similar forays at several other points in the mountains, the state Department of Water Resources forecasts California's water supply for the year. It was not a good sign today when Gehrke found a pencil he'd dropped on his last trip up here a month ago. The pencil was in the dirt where he should have found snow. At five of the first seven spots on his course, in fact, Gehrke came up dry. Overall, the average snow depth was just 3.3 inches, and the water content of that snow was 1.7 inches, just 11 percent of average for this location on May 1.

With essentially no snow for the month, the location Gehrke was checking today lost 25 inches of water content in April, and that followed a bone-dry March.

Gehrke described his findings as "pretty grim."

Schwarzenegger officials will give an official assessment of the water situation later today.

UPDATE: Overall, the snowpack water content today averaged 67 percent of normal throughout the 400-mile-long mountain range. Levels were 88 percent of normal in the northern Sierra and about 60 percent of normal in the central and southern regions.