The San Francisco slugfest for state Senate may be about to get a bit more crowded. Former Assemblyman Joe Nation, a Marin Democrat, is considering jumping into the race and plans to commission a poll “to see what the path to victory looks like.”
“It is not a decision to run but to at least conduct a poll, look at the numbers, and see what the path to victory looks like,” Nation told Capitol Alert.
The three-term member of the Assembly, who was termed out of office in 2006, said he currently juggles three jobs, but “there is a piece of me that doesn’t feel full and that’s the public policy piece.”
The June 2008 contest was already expected to be one of the most heated in the state, with Assemblyman Mark Leno challenging incumbent Sen. Carole Migden. Both are openly gay, liberal Democrats and capable fundraisers. A third candidate, San Francisco Police Commission member Joe Alioto Veronese, the son of long-time city politico Angela Alioto and grandson of former Mayor Joseph Alioto, also is in the race.
The third Senate district, which Migden has represented since 2004, is comprised of eastern San Francisco, Marin County and a chunk of Sonoma, with voters split almost evenly between San Francisco (237,000 registered voters, according to the latest data from the Secretary of State’s Office) and Sonoma and Marin (225,000 registered voters).
In the heavily Democratic district, winning the primary is tantamount to victory.
David Latterman, president of Fall Line Analytics, a San Francisco-based polling company, said Nation’s potential entrance into the race “hurts Carole” Migden. That’s because while both Migden and Leno are well known in San Francisco, a Nation candidacy could take Marin votes away from Migden, which Leno has never represented, he said.
“It’s all about Marin for (Nation),” Latterman said. “The dude’s got no chance in the liberal or gay community in San Francisco.”
This would be the second political campaign for Nation since he termed out of the Assembly. In 2006, he unsuccessfully challenged liberal Marin Congresswoman Lynn Woolsey in the Democratic primary, finishing with 33 percent of the vote.
A call to Migden’s campaign about Nation’s potential candidacy was not returned.
Rufus Jeffris, a Leno campaign aide, said Nation is welcome to join the race.
“Joe needs to make his own decision about what he wants to do and what’s best for him,” Jeffris said. “Mark believes anyone is free to enter the race and the more the merrier. We are running our campaign showing that Mark is the best chance for change going forward.”
Nation said his next step will be opening a campaign account and raise enough funds to pay for the initial poll, actions he expects to take in the “next few weeks.”
@Nyx.CommentBody@