California pollsters Mark Baldassare and Mark DiCamillo today made what is becoming their regular road show at The Sacramento Press Club, where they summarized findings on state public opinion heading into the Feb. 5 presidential primary - now only 51 days away. Here are the highlights:
From Baldassare, president of the Public Policy Institute of California, whose group conducted nine statewide polls in 2007:
• Consumer confidence declined dramatically this year. In the group's January poll, half of Californians expected good economic conditions in the coming year. That dropped to 25 percent in a survey released last week.
• Half of Californians are now worried about the effects of the housing crisis on their personal finances.
• Approval ratings for the governor and Legislature, however, remained relatively stable. Baldassare said state residents are most concerned about issues, including the economy and immigration, that they tend to blame on Washington politicians. His ominous prediction for California politicos: "I don't expect those approval ratings to hold up" as residents become more aware of the state's budget problems.
• Californians register "overwhelming" approval for 10-percent across-the-board budget cuts, Baldassare said, because they think the state could make 30-percent cuts without hurting services. "I think the public feels there is not going to be any pain," he said.
• Fewer Californians than before say they would support tax increases as
a solution to the state's budget woes - a change driven by the fact that many
Democrats have changed their mind on the subject. He attributed the shift in
part to Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's appeal to moderate Democrats and his
consistent opposition to general tax increases. "That speaks to the governor's
popularity and...persuasiveness," Baldassare said. "It's going to really constrain
leadership in terms of politically how to respond to the current budget situation."
• On term limits, one PPIC poll found that voters already think term
limits are shorter than they are. "Only 1 percent said 14 years," - the correct
figure - Baldassare said. "Most people thought eight years, four years, or six
years."
From Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll, which will release a new round of statewide polling on the presidential primary and ballot measures beginning Wednesday (check back with Capitol Alert for the exclusive Field Poll statistical tabulations):
• Hillary Clinton's lead in California polling this year - over 40 percent
support in all surveys - has been driven by her domination of two key
Democratic constituencies, women and Latinos. "It'll take a lot for (Barack)
Obama to break through what I would consider the Clinton firewall that she's
built in California," DiCamillo said.
• Support for Rudy Giuliani among California Republicans has been less
solid, weakening over the course of the year. In contrast to Clinton, his
support has not come from key GOP constituencies, including strong
conservatives and evangelicals.
• The Field Poll will pay close attention to voters' second-choice
candidates under the assumption that the field will shrink after Iowa and New
Hampshire.
• Structural differences between the two parties in California
will also be a factor. Democrats allow nonpartisans to participate in their
primary; Republicans don't. That means as much as 15 percent of the likely
Democratic electorate could be non-partisan voters, who DiCamillo said are less
tied to Clinton and more open to other candidates. Were the Republican rules
similar, he said John McCain and Giuliani would have been the beneficiaries.
• Given the large percentage of Californians who vote by mail, be
careful when you're watching early election returns on Feb. 5.
Mail ballot voters whose votes are reported right after the polls close are more
likely to be older, white non-Hispanic homeowners and more Republican than
Democrat.
• Polling analyses that concentrate on the fact that most voters have
health care are missing what DiCamillo sees as a "real sense of foreboding
about the future." While just 10 percent of voters don't have health coverage,
another four in ten are concerned that they or someone close to them could
lose their health care coverage. Voters are also concerned about rising costs,
including fears that they won't be able to pay the bills for a major illness or
injury.
• The campaign against the term limit initiative could prove pivotal given
that support for the initiative is coming from voters who want to shorten
lawmakers' time in office. "You think to yourself, my God, a "no" campaign
could peel off those voters," DiCamillo said. "I'm a little skeptical about its
chances of passage."
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