April 28, 2008

Arnold's numbers game

Anyone who guessed $20 billion in the Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger budget pool wins. At least for today.

Schwarzenegger has given a wide range of estimates in April, describing the budget gap this fiscal year and next as totaling anywhere from $16 billion to $20 billion.

The Republican governor on Monday told a group of business leaders in Orange County that the budget deficit in both fiscal years is "altogether $20 billion out of whack."

Department of Finance spokesman H.D. Palmer said the governor may have added a $2.8 billion reserve to his previous $17 billion deficit figure. Palmer said he cannot verify exactly what the budget deficit is until the governor's revised budget is released May 14.

Making matters more complicated, the governor sometimes breaks out the figures in current-year and next-year estimates. He estimated last week that the 2008-09 budget would be "probably more than $10 billion," at least $1 billion higher than previous estimates. The governor also said the current-year problem that he and legislators resolved earlier this year with more borrowing and other fixes totaled $7 billion.

Many news reports, including those in The Bee, describe the budget estimate for the next fiscal year, not the combined figure Schwarzenegger used Monday.

The governor has relied on the deficit estimates to stress the need for a long-term budget change. In that respect, the bigger the numbers the governor uses, the more dire the need seems.

Here's a look back at the governor's April bouncing budget numbers:

Tuesday, April 15: At a town-hall style event with Salinas business leaders, Schwarzenegger says, "But I can guarantee you, we're talking here about $17.5, $18 billion of deficit." Total: $17.5 billion to $18 billion

Wednesday, April 16: One day later, Schwarzenegger tells the Bay Area Council, "We have a $16 to $17 billion deficit, so it's going to be a very tough year to balance the budget." Total: $16 billion to $17 billion

Thursday, April 24: At a DNA conference organized by district attorneys, Schwarzenegger says the 2008-09 budget deficit will be "probably more than $10 billion" while the current year deficit is $7 billion. Total: more than $17 billion

Monday, April 28: Speaking in Garden Grove, Schwarzenegger says the budget is "altogether $20 billion out of whack." Total: $20 billion

Posted by Kevin Yamamura on April 28, 2008 03:22 PM