May 27, 2008

Outside spending tops $1.1 million in Migden race

As if this race needed any more firepower.

Outside interest groups have poured more than $1.1 million into the Migden-Leno-Nation Senate slugfest with one week left until the June 3 primary election.

The majority of the independent expenditure spending has not focused on Sen. Carole Migden or her initial upstart challenger, Assemblyman Mark Leno, but the third entrant in the race, former Assemblyman Joe Nation.

While both Migden and Leno are proudly liberal San Francisco Democrats, Nation established himself as a moderate during his six-year term in the Assembly, joining the "Mod Squad," an influential group of business-friendly Democrats.

Business interests, seeking to elect a more moderate voice to the Bay Area's Democratic delegation, have spent just shy of $500,000 promoting Nation's candidacy, blanketing the district with pro-Nation mailers.

"Joe Nation is best equipped to bring balance to the civil justice system," said Cynthia Neff, communications director for Civil Justice Association of California, a business lobby group that aims to reduce "excessive litigation" against businesses.

Funded by contributions from the real estate, pharmaceutical and insurance industries, among others, CJAC-linked committees account for more than $340,000 of the spending benefiting Nation.

Tom Higgins, Leno's campaign manager, said the heavy business spending is because Nation "carried corporate interests' water as a member of the state Assembly."

"They could get a Republican-lite in a progressive seat," said Higgins of the business groups backing Nation in the San Francisco, Marin and Sonoma district.

Nation disputes that charge. "If you look at my contributions, and contrast that with Leno or Migden, they have received far more in corporate contributions than I have," Nation said.

He pointed out that the IE spending was independent of his campaign and that he had taken no money from the pharmaceutical industry in this campaign - unlike Leno - even if those interests had contributed to the independent effort.

"The only thing we can control is our direct campaign," Nation said.

Labor interests have countered with an anti-Nation campaign, spending $368,000 to oppose Nation's Senate bid. The California Teachers Association, the California School Employees Association and SEIU have been among the chief contributors.

David Latterman, the president of Fall Line Analytics, a San Francisco-based polling company, said that Migden's problems - from her wild driving to record fines from the state's watchdog agency - have turned the campaign into "a one-on-one race with Nation and Leno."

A recent poll showed Leno leading Nation by 20 points and Migden in third.

UPDATE: Nation called to say the KPIX poll is misleading and that internal campaign polls show a "statistical dead heat" between himself and Leno, with Migden in third. He said the KPIX/Survey USA poll oversampled San Francisco, where Leno has greater support.

The bulk of the Nation spending - both pro and con - has come in Marin, Latterman said, where Nation served as a representative and Leno is relatively unknown.

With a week left before the election, the Leno campaign is trying to tag Nation as the corporate candidate, using the independent expenditures as evidence.

"He's not a progressive, that's the bottom line," said Higgins.

Nation countered in a local paper, the Marin Independent Journal, that "strip clubs and producers of pornographic movies" are backing Leno to the tune of $14,000. Gambling interests gave Leno another $31,000, Nation accused.

Meanwhile, Migden has been propped up by an independent campaign largely paid for by the business interests of racetrack owner Terry Fancher.

A group called the Fair Public Policy Coalition, funded with sizable checks from Fancher's Bay Meadows and Hollywood Park racetracks, has spent more than $200,000 supporting Migden.

Leno has received less independent expenditure support, benefiting from a $50,000 contribution from the Assembly Democrats' PAC for a slot on a slate mailer and another $2,000 from a local Democratic gay and lesbian club. Facing the barrage of independent spending, Leno lent himself $100,000 in the most recent filing period.

In the final sprint of the campaign, Migden has a cash-on-hand advantage, with $737,525 left in the bank. Nation had $194,857 and Leno controlled $159,514, according to campaign reports filed on May 22.

Migden had the largest debts, $180,591 in unpaid bills, followed by Nation ($130,683) and Leno ($45,908).

Latterman, a registered Democrat in San Francisco, said he had received eight Migden mailers in the last ten days, a sign the embattled senator hopes she can revive her reelection hopes with a barrage of late mail.

Posted by Shane Goldmacher on May 27, 2008 3:10 PM