July 10, 2008

State GOP gives big to Aghazarian, Strickland

The California Republican Party poured $345,000 into Assemblyman Greg Aghazarian's state Senate campaign last week, a sign that party leaders hope to make a run at the seat of termed-out Sen. Mike Machado, D-Linden.

The party followed up that donation by giving $595,000 to former Assemblyman Tony Strickland, the GOP nominee in another fall Senate campaign.

The races are the only two of the 20 Senate seats up for election in November where competition is expected.

"If you look at the state Senate races, there are two of them," said party spokesman Hector Barajas. "These are two candidates that we feel can do quite well in the districts."

Aghazarian, a Stockton Republican in his third and final term in the Assembly, is running against Assemblywoman Lois Wolk, a Davis Democrat. Strickland is opposed by former Assemblywoman Hannah-Beth Jackson, D-Santa Barbara, in the campaign to succeed termed-out Sen. Tom McClintock, R-Thousand Oaks.

Republicans face an uphill battle to win Machado's seat, a contorted district that includes all of Yolo and parts of Sacramento, Solano and San Joaquin counties.

In the most recent voter registration statistics, Democrats account for a little more than 47 percent of registered voters in the district, while Republicans make up 31.5 percent of voters.

Republicans took at a shot unseating Machado four years ago, when former Stockton Mayor Gary Podesta challenged Machado in a $9.9 million campaign. At the time, that was the most expensive legislative race in California history.

What's worse for Republicans is that the district has turned decidedly bluer in the past four years. In October 2004, Democrats held a 10-point registration advantage over Republicans. That gap has since grown to 15.5 points.

Allan Hoffenblum, the publisher of the California Target Book, which analyzes political races in the state, said the Aghazarian donation was to send a message to GOP donors.

"It is a statement by the GOP leadership that they are going to take that race seriously," Hoffenblum said.

In the early money race, Aghazarian has a significant financial advantage, with more than quadruple the cash-on-hand of Wolk.

As of mid-May, Aghazarian had $530,000 in the bank, with $44,000 in debts. Since then, he has received another $105,000 from three local GOP county committees as well as the big recent check from the state party. That brings his rough total to $936,000.

Wolk had $176,000 in her treasury as of mid-May, with $20,000 in debts.

The Democratic Party, however, is expected to have plenty to spend to contest both seats in the fall. The California Democratic Party reported more than $7.9 million in the bank as of May, a $3.8 million advantage over the Republican Party, which reported $4.18 million.

Outside independent expenditures are expected to play a role in both races, particularly the Strickland-Jackson showdown, which Hoffenblum described as the "most competitive" Senate race in the state.

"It is really a swing, moderate district," he said, "but (the voters') choice is going to be a very liberal Democrat or very conservative Republican."

Strickland, like Aghazarian, holds a fundraising lead over Jackson, though by a much slimmer margin until the party's nearly $600,000 financial boost.

As of the May filings, Jackson had $302,000, with $5,000 in debts. Strickland reported $492,000 with $36,000 in debts. Both have raised roughly $100,000 in large contributions since, though the state GOP donation to Strickland gives him a wide cash-on-hand lead.

Hoffenblum warned against reading too much into the numbers.

"No Democrat in California is going to lose for a lack of money," he said. "It's not going to happen.

The Democrats control 25 of the 40 state Senate seats, but need 27 votes to pass the budget or raise taxes. One GOP senator, Abel Maldonado, R-Santa Maria, often votes with the Democrats on key issues, such as last year's budget. That means a sweep of both the Machado and McClintock seats would bring the party close to a governing super-majority.

Photo credits: Assemblyman Greg Agharazian on the Assembly floor for the first time in 2002. Dick Schmidt, Modesto Bee, December 2002.

Former Assemblyman Tony Strickland at the California Republican convention in August 2006. Brian Baer, Sacramento Bee, August 2006.

Posted by Shane Goldmacher on July 10, 2008 1:24 PM