Capitol Alert

The latest on California politics and government

Here's an update on some new polling data from across the state.

Survey USA, the robo-dialing polling outfit, has released a series of polls on four of the measures on the Nov. 4 ballot.

Proposition 2, the measure that would effectively end caging of egg-laying hens, is ahead by a remarkable 62 points.

According to Survey USA, the measure leads 72 percent to 10 percent with a 3.5 percentage point margin of error.

Proposition 4, the parental notification measure, leads by 16 points, 52 percent to 36 percent. The poll has a 3.9 percentage point margin of error.

Two measures similar to Proposition 4 have failed in the last three years.

The hot-button Proposition 8, the gay marriage measure, trails narrowly losing 44 percent to 49 percent. That measure had the smallest proportion of undecided voters, and a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points.

Proposition 11, the redistricting measure, had the highest level of undecided voters with 27 percent supporting, 25 percent opposing and 49 percent undecided (Those numbers don't add up to 100 percent due to rounding).

Lastly, Daily Kos, the liberal national blog, has paid for a private poll on the Charlie Brown-Tom McClintock race to replace retiring Rep. John Doolittle.

The poll shows Brown, who is running an a heavily Republican-leaning district, ahead 46 percent to 41 percent for McClintock.

That result seemed to even surprise blogger Markos Moulitsas, founder of the site, who wrote, "Winning this district would be a political shocker. Keep this in mind -- only five Democrats (out of 236) hold seats more conservative than this one. And we're running a pro-choice, pro-environment, pro-comprehensive immigration reform, and pro-getting our troops home from Iraq (where his son is currently serving)."

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About Capitol Alert

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Shane Goldmacher and The Bee Capitol Bureau report on the people and politics of California government. Get e-mail alerts for breaking news, as well as exclusive previews of Capitol happenings and stories in tomorrow's Bee.

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