California, whose growth has been tied to migration from other states and nations for decades, has evolved into a state that must look inward for future workers and leaders, a new study by the University of Southern California's Population Dynamics Research Group concludes.
Declining in-migration, high birth rates and a strong inclination of those born in the state to remain here are all part of the changing profile, the study says. Only four other states have higher rates of retaining those born in the state, and California's rate, 66.9 percent, is markedly higher than the national rate of 50 percent.
"California is undergoing profound change from a land of migrants to one with a much more settled population," says the demographic study. "A majority of young adults, and soon the middle-aged, are native Californians whose entire lives have been shaped in the state.
"These homegrown citizens are also much more deeply rooted than other residents, and they represent a tremendous resource for California's future. However, the middle-aged voters and leaders of the state may not have fully appreciated the transformation that has occurred; nor have they fully committed to the new future of the state."
"There is no foreseeable wave of migration that is coming from outside California to save us," the analysis continues. "If we fail to invest in the children of California, we will only be shortchanging ourselves."
The study found, as have other analyses, that the severe recession that buffeted California during the early 1990s sent hundreds of thousands of people -- some believe as many as a million -- out of the state seeking work. But since then, the USC researchers found, there's a much larger tendency to stay put. But the study stopped short, because data were lacking, of the effects of the most recent, even more severe recession.
The federal Census Bureau contends that there has been a strong outflow of people from California during the past decade, but the state Department of Finance's demographic unit disputes that contention, and the conflict presumably will be resolved by the 2010 census.
The full USC study is available here.
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