Capitol Alert

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and Assembly Speaker Fabian Núñez jointly filed a measure to fund the proposed overhaul of health care in California late Friday.

The Democratic legislative leadership and GOP governor were unable to pass the funding provisions through the Legislature, as the plan includes tax increases that Republican lawmakers have steadfastly opposed.

Filing the initiative with the attorney general is critical to begin the process of qualifying the measure for the November 2008 ballot. The office of the attorney general now has as many as seven weeks to write a title and summary for the initiative before proponents begin gathering the estimated more than 1 million signatures needed to qualify for the ballot.

One of the remaining funding questions for the plan -- how big the cigarette tax would be -- is answered in the 41-page document. The speaker and governor settled on 8.75 cents per cigarette, which works out to $1.75 per pack.

See the full initiative here.

As the governor and legislative leaders hustle to negotiate a major overhaul of health care in California, there is one recurring question: When exactly is the drop-dead date for a final deal to be put on the November 2008 ballot?

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and Assembly Speaker Fabian Núñez have pushed for a completed package this year. The Assembly, in fact, voted out a health plan on Monday in a party-line vote.

But Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata has said he won’t take up the legislation until he has an analysis on the impact of the plan on the state’s precarious budget, which is $14 billion in the red, approximately the cost of the health plan.

The only consistent thing about the deadline, meanwhile, has been its inconsistency.

In early December, the speaker’s office insisted a floor session be held on Dec. 5 or 6 – despite a planned GOP retreat because "deadlines are deadlines," referring to the November ballot.

The session was cancelled.

Then, on Dec. 13, Nunez himself set today, Dec. 21, as the drop-dead deadline to finish health care.

But today will come and go, and negotiations are scheduled to continue into 2008.

The source of the confusion is the statutory calendar to qualify an initiative, which requires, as the first step, receiving title and summary for any measure from the attorney general (which can take up to seven weeks after submission).

The calendar suggests that the last day for proponents to submit a proposed measure for the November ballot to the Attorney General's office was Oct. 1. But the truth is that there is more time to get something qualified - as long as you have more money.

Perata has said that if the governor and speaker are so worried about making the November 2008 ballot, they could submit ballot language now, before the Senate takes up the legislation.

“We don’t need to pass a bill for the initiative process to begin. They could file the title and summary tomorrow, or today, if they wanted to,” said Perata spokeswoman Alicia Trost.

The speaker's office doesn't agree. "If the Senate alters anything, anything they do is likely to add to the costs so we would be back to where we started (redrafting funding language)," said Steve Maviglio, a spokesman for Núñez.

The central portion of the would-be initiative is the funding of the health package (read: the hospital tax, the tobacco tax and the employer fee), which isn’t part of the legislation anyway because Republicans won’t vote for it (and their votes would be needed).

Problem is, there’s no done deal on the funding, as the speaker and governor haven’t publicly announced an agreement on the size of the tobacco tax (the speaker wants $2 per pack, the governor $1.50).

“Those decision haven’t been made,” noted Trost.

Schwarzenegger spokesman Adam Mendelsohn indicated the initiative process is progressing: “There are people who are writing the initiative as we speak and are making sure everything is done on a timeline,” he said.

Once a measure has its title and summary, it is cleared to begin gathering signatures. Measures are given – at most – 150 days to do this. But the health care plan must gather the necessary 694,354 valid signatures (which takes an estimated 1.2 million actual signatures) in a much shorter time frame.

If, for instance, they submitted the measure today (Dec. 21), the attorney general would have to issue title and summary by Feb. 14., according to the speaker’s office, though Attorney General Jerry Brown could issue it sooner.

If the full time were taken by Brown, it would give the campaign roughly 67 days to collect the 1.2 million signatures, before submitting them to counties by the April 21 deadline recommended by the secretary of state’s office.

Of course, they are not submitting the measure today. So for every day after today that the measure is not submitted, subtract one day from the estimated time allotted to signature-gathering.

Still following?

Such tight timelines have been met before. But it gets tougher and more expensive the smaller the window, says Lee Albright, president of National Petition Management, a signature-gathering firm in California.

“Successful campaigns have been qualified in a 30-day time frame, but that’s outrageously expensive and an incredible gamble,” said Albright.

In 2005, what became Proposition 76, Schwarzenegger’s budget measure, collected nearly 600,000 signatures in about 40 days. The record came in 1998, when Indian tribes gathered more than 430,000 signatures in less time than that – though they spent millions doing it.

Albright, the signature-gatherer, said a campaign 50 days of gathering time would be very possible to make the November ballot.

Any less than that and “you are taking a risk,” he said. “It all depends on what type of funding you have.”

“We haven’t made a final determination on what the timeline is we are looking at,” said Mendelsohn, the Schwarzenegger aide. But, he said, “The timeline is fast approaching.”

All sides have remained optimistic as the clock ticks. The Senate has tentatively set a health committee hearing for Jan. 16 to hear the legislation, before it would move on to the Senate floor.

“It’s never been hard to collect signatures for a tobacco tax,” Trost said.

The California Voter Foundation has posted its voter guide for the Feb. 5 election. Find it here.

The pot of money for those opposing the Indian compacts on the presidential primary ballot keeps growing. This week, the hotel and restaurant employee union, UNITE HERE, which spearheaded the signature-gathering drive for the four referendums, donated another $2 million.

The union had previously given $1 million to the campaign to qualify what's become Propositions 94, 95, 96 and 97.

Last week, the Pala Band of Mission Indians donated $2.5 million to oppose rival tribes' casino expansion compacts on the Feb. 5 ballot.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger isn't calling a special session today to address a "fiscal emergency." But the Republican governor is announcing that he will declare a fiscal emergency and a special session of the Legislature to address it on Jan. 10, 2008.

The proclamation and special session will be called the same day Schwarzenegger unveils the budget.

For the current year, the budget is facing a $3.3 billion shortfall, the administration reports.

With his health plan getting attacked from the left and the right, Assembly Speaker Fabian Núñez is reaching out to liberals in the blogosphere.

He's got identical posts touting his health package on the California Progress Report and Calitics.

The California Chamber of Commerce announced the results of an internal vote to oppose a ballot measure to alter term limits today, almost two weeks after the vote was taken.

“It is unfortunate that the February ballot does not offer voters the opportunity to consider redistricting reform that would provide for fair elections in conjunction with Proposition 93. The CalChamber Board of Directors believes that term limits reform without redistricting reform is not the comprehensive political reform California needs,” said Chamber president Allan Zaremberg in a written statement.

The board voted -- and released its positions -- on the rest of the measures on the Feb. 5 ballot on December 7.

Asked at the time why not release its decision on Proposition 93, Chamber spokeswoman Denise Davis told Capitol Alert, "that's the way the board decided to handle it."

When the term limits campaign launched early this year, Zaremberg issued a laudatory statment, but has since tied his, and the Chamber's, support to redistricting.

“If we are going to allow legislators to serve longer periods of time, they must be accountable to the voters," Zaremberg said in today's statement. "Fair redistricting is critical to creating accountability. We must ensure that districts are competitive and that voters have the ability to hold elected officials accountable at the ballot box for their actions.”

Davis said the Chamber has not committed any resources to oppose the measure.

With reporting from Jim Sanders.

Or at least his campaign does.

The Illinois senator will become the first presidential candidate to open up a bricks-and-mortar campaign office in California's capital today.

The office will be located at 2015 Q Street, with an opening party tonight starting at 6 p.m. Among the hoi polloi set to attend: Sen. Dean Florez, City Councilman Kevin McCarty, West Sacramento Mayor Christopher Cabaldon, former Sen. Deborah Ortiz and former San Francisco Giants manager Dusty Baker.

Dusty Baker?

In all, Erin Callahan, a Barack Obama spokeswoman, said the opening is expected to draw 150 to 200 people. Looking ahead, the office will be staffed by at least one paid employee, Callahan said, though the final number hasn't been ironed out yet "with so many states in play."

Mostly, there will be volunteers. "Sacramento is the best organized volunteer base in the state," Callahan said, led by Kim Mack, chair of Sacramento for Obama.

Meanwhile, Obama has been talking up his bipartisan credentials on the campaign trail, saying he would consider adding GOPers to an Obama White House cabinet.

One name: Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. "What (he’s) doing on climate change in California is very important and significant. There are things I don't agree with him on, but he's taken leadership on a very difficult issue and we haven't seen that kind of leadership in Washington," he told ABC News.

(Below's a photo from Obama's trip to Sacramento in August for a fundraiser.)

Photo Credit: Randall Benton, Sacramento Bee, August 2007

It's a brave new world when prominent elected officials are announcing their positions on landmark legislation on blogs.

Welcome to that world.

San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom layed out a critique of the legislation passed out of the Assembly this week, negotiated by the speaker and Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. He wrote his opinion on Calitics, the left-leaning group blog.

Newsom, who is a supporter of Sen. Sheila Kuehl's single-payer plan, criticizes the plan from the left:

The first problem: there is not nearly enough cost control. Under the proposal, almost all Californians would have to buy health insurance - but there are not sufficient guarantees that the insurance polices are going to be affordable.

...

Another unacceptable risk: not enough protections against "dumping." This plan needs real barriers to prevent big companies that hire low-wage workers (like WalMart) from merely pushing the health care burden onto taxpayers.

Yet another flaw: the plan is unclear about how it will provide sufficient coverage to undocumented workers. How can we even be talking about a "universal" plan that could leave out millions of people?

Perhaps more fundamentally, Newsom is worried that the proposal takes the state no closer, and maybe even farther, from a single payer system.

"I, for one, am not opposed to interim steps on our way to Single Payer. We all need to understand that building a workable Single Payer system will take time. But I want us to keep moving in the right direction," Newsom blogs.

He ends the entry: "I'm not convinced that this plan, as currently drafted, is moving us toward our ultimate goal of affordable and quality care for everyone."

FlashReport publisher Jon Fleischman tries his hand at poetry.

It begins:

'Twas the week before the non-denominational winter break (we call it Christmas), and all through California’s house not a Lobbyist was stirring, not even a Democrat Louse;

As the campaign stockings hung by the chimney, the state’s cupboards were bare,
In hopes that a Christmas miracle soon would be there;

The Democrats were nestled snuggly in their beds,
While visions of relaxed terms limits danced in their heads;...

Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner and former Controller Steve Westly are facing off publicly over Proposition 93, the term limits measure of the Feb. 5 ballot.

Jim Sanders had more on that on Wednesday.

The pair were also recruited for a three day, online "dust-up" by the Los Angeles Times, where they argued over the provisions of the measure.

There is not a lot of news there, but it is worth a glance.

When the Legislature reconvenes in 2008, Sen. Sheila Kuehl will have a role to play in the unfolding health care debate.

Kuehl, a liberal Santa Monica Democrat, chairs the Senate Health Committee, the first stop for AB 1x in the Senate.

She's no fan of the bill. Instead, Kuehl has been a driving force behind the push for single-payer health care in the state. But her legislation to do that was vetoed in 2006 and Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has threatened to veto any future iterations of the idea.

This week, in an op-ed on the California Progress Report, Kuehl asks and answers a series of questions about the health legislation.

In her essay, Kuehl sets Jan. 16 as the expected first hearing for AB 1x in the Senate. But even that is contingent on "if the language of the bill is in its final form according to its author, the Speaker, the requested analysis of the impact of the State Budget by the Legislative Analyst's Office is complete, and the Committee also has the language of the proposed initiative that will, supposedly, fund the bill."

Here's her AB 1x Q&A, with only the start of her answers included (the full answers are very long):

Giant Leap for Health Coverage? Or for premiums...
The press has described the bill in breathless prose as a "giant leap" for health coverage. Unfortunately, this is not quite the case, depending on who you are and how and where you work. Each of the sections below will explain some of the provisions of the bill actually harmful to regular, working-class and middle-class families. And it provides less help than advertised for poor families, as well...

Coverage for everyone?
The press characterizes the bill as providing or extending coverage to all but a few Californians. This is a mischaracterization, nothing is provided. Instead, all Californians would be required to buy insurance with no caps on premiums, no regulation of the cost of insurance or medical expense, no maximum deductibles, and no floor on how little coverage you can buy and satisfy the legal requirement...

Is there at least minimum coverage required in the bill?
No...

How is the bill to be financed?
There is no funding in the bill...

But how do poor people fare...today's uninsured?
Better, but still a hardship...

Unions seem to like the bill, don't they?
Well, some of them...

Former state Controller Steve Westly, who once taught at Stanford University, clearly doesn't give voters an "A" in state politics.

Westly was blunt Tuesday when asked whether Californians will be turned off by a provision in the term-limits ballot initiative, Proposition 93, that would allow incumbents to serve at least one extra term.

Assembly Speaker Fabian Núñez and Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata, for example, could stay in office an additional six years and four years, respectively.

"There are perhaps 100 of us, you and me included, who are really paying attention to the individuals and so on," Westly said in a conference call with reporters.

"To the average voter, I don't think they're focused on any one or two members of the state Legislature.

"I don't think that most Californians, frankly, could name who the speaker or the president pro tem are. The simple fact is, they're looking for term limit legislation and reform that works."

Westly said the measure's limit of 12 years in the Legislature, rather than the current 14, will be popular with voters.

State lawmakers currently can serve no more than six years in the Assembly and eight in the Senate.

Senate Republicans have resurrected their list of budget cuts in response to the state's growing deficit. Among their major targets: education, health and welfare.

Sen. Dick Ackerman, R-Irvine, said he handed the Schwarzenegger administration a list of cuts worth $11 billion before the governor briefed legislative leaders last week. The list is reminiscent of a previous list Senate Republicans produced during last summer's 51-day budget stalemate as conservatives demanded further spending reductions in state government.

Although Ackerman would not release the new proposed cuts, he said most of the suggestions target education, health and welfare since the state is mandated to spend in those areas by various statutes and court orders.

"A lot of money in K-12 is wasted. It gets lost in Sacramento somewhere," Ackerman said Tuesday.

For starters, he suggested suspending Proposition 98 - the constitutional provision that guarantees roughly 40 percent of the General Fund goes to K-14 funding. Such a move could save the state billions by reducing funding to public schools.

The year-to-year growth in Proposition 98 should also be considered, Ackerman said. Currently the 2008-09 budget is projecting a 4.81 percent cost-of-living increase for schools, which translates to an increase cost of $2.7 billion, according to the Legislative Analyst Elizabeth Hill. Ackerman said schools don't need such a big increase.

An additional $400 million in General Fund savings could be found instantly within Proposition 98 if the Legislature takes immediate action to reduce the minimum guarantee, Ackerman said. The suggestion has been previously mentioned by Hill.

On welfare, Republicans have brought back some politically divisive suggestions, including caseload reductions. "The welfare budget has gone up way beyond caseload," Ackerman said.

And when Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger stood with Assembly Speaker Fabian Núñez on Monday to tout a $14.5 billion health care plan, Republican lawmakers were noticeably absent. "Nobody's real happy about this health care bill," Ackerman said. "We didn't think it was the proper policy or the proper time."

Of course, the senator said "absolutely not" to raising taxes.

This morning's Bee has the story of a campaign mailer from Assembly candidate Mike Gipson that promises voters a chance at a $250 gift card in exchange for casting a ballot and bringing a voting stub to Gipson HQ.

The end of the mailer notes "you are eligible to win ... no matter who you vote for."

It's a practice that is legal in California, but illegal at the federal level, though California Secretary of State Debra Bowen said "it probably should be" illegal at the state level.

In any case, we've posted the front of the controversial Christmas-card like mailer for those wanting to see what it looked like.

UPDATED....While the speaker and the governor were touting the health care plan's passage out of the Assembly in Sacramento on Monday, Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata was telling a Bay Area TV station the plan is dead on arrival.

Perata has expressed concerns about putting a $14 billion health care package before voters as the state faces a $14 billion budget hole. He has said he will not ask senators to return to Sacramento to vote on a health plan until 2008.

"I think it's DOA. I haven't found anybody yet that I have talked to that can make any sense out of it. It sounds ridiculous to say that we're going to have health care for everybody in four years, but in the meantime most people won't have health care because we have to cut the budget," Perata told KPIX.

On Monday, the Senate leader sent a letter to the nonpartisan legislative analyst asking what the fiscal impact of the health plan would be on California's budget deficit.

"You couldn't balance your home checkbook that way, much less run the fifth or sixth largest economy in the world," Perata continued in the interview.

Then he ended with this: "He simply does not understand the way in which this works," though it's not clear from the clip who the Oakland Democrat is referring to.

Watch the interview here (It's about three minutes in).

On Monday, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger would not publicly pressure Perata to pass the legislation on a timetable. "I don't tell the senator how to run his house," he said.

But he sure sounded optimistic. "I am confident the Senate will follow up and quickly move the finish line even closer because I know Sen. Perata is a big, big believer in making sure everyone has medical insurance," Schwarzenegger said.

UPDATE: Perata’s spokesman Alicia Trost has called to clarify Perata's on-camera comments to say that Perata does not think the entire health deal is permanently DOA.

"We want to make clear that the health care reform movement is not DOA," Trost told Capitol Alert. "We need to know the details of the financing plans as well as the details of the budget before the Senate takes it up. We remain committed to passing health care reform and getting it done right but we only get one shot at doing this correctly."

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger announced the appointment of two new members of the Community College Board of Governors on Tuesday, filling open seats after Senate Republicans refused to confirm his prior nominees earlier this year.

In June, the appointments of Kay L. Albiani, Rose Castillo-Guilbault and John Koeberer stalled on the Senate floor after passing through the Rules Committee with a bipartisan 4-0 vote.

Sen. Bob Dutton, R-Rancho Cucamonga, voted for the trio in Rules, but afterward learned that they supported Sen. Gil Cedillo's" California Dream Act," which would make illegal immigrants eligible for state financial aid and to pay resident fees at community colleges.

He fired off a memo to the Senate GOP caucus urging his colleagues to vote down the nominees. Board appointees require a two-thirds vote of the Senate, or 27 senators, meaning at least two Republicans must support confirmation.

The nominees were never taken up. (Read more here.)

In the months since, two of those board appointees, Castillo-Guilbault, a Democrat, and Koeberer, a Republican, have had their terms expire.

Only Albiani, who serves as president of the board of governors, remains. But her term is set to end on Jan. 15, when her one-year clock on service without confirmation expires. There has been no movement toward confirmation in the Senate.

Rachel Cameron, a spokesman for Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger said, “The governor stands behind his appointments and we will have to wait and see what happens.”

Today, Schwarzenegger appointed two new members Robert V. McDonald, a Republican and executive director for the Black Chamber of Commerce of Orange County, as well as Alicia Perez, a manager for the Sacramento Municipal Utility District. Both are Republicans. (Technically, Perez is filling Koeberer’s seat, while McDonald is filling a different vacancy.)

The Los Angeles County Federation of Labor announced its endorsement of Sen. Mark Ridley-Thomas in the race to replace retiring County Supvervisor Yvonne Brathwaite–Burke.

The 800,000-strong federation has said the race will be its top priority in 2008.

Ridley-Thomas will face off against Bernard Parks, a member of the Los Angeles City Council, who is expected to garner the backing of the business community in a battle to sway control of the board.

From the release, with highlighting by Capitol Alert:

“Over the past year it’s become more evident that the decisions made by the board not only have the potential to hurt workers, but severely hurt the communities we live in such as the closing of King Drew Medical Center,” said Maria Elena Durazo, Executive Secretary-Treasurer of the Los Angeles County Federation of Labor, AFL-CIO. “So when it comes to politics in 2008, there will be no greater political priority for working families than to elect Mark Ridley-Thomas to the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors.”

In endorsing Ridley-Thomas, the Federation will commit to combine the resources of the entire Labor Movement to turn out the vote on June 3rd. Support will come in various forms including precinct walking, phone banking and targeted mail.

“When nurses, firefighters, electricians, janitors or any other worker says they are behind a candidate, we just don’t mean it on paper. We mean workers will hit the streets to turn-out out the vote.” said Dave Gillotte, a county Firefighter represented by the International Association of Firefighters (IAFF) Local 1014. “Come June 3rd, the entire labor movement will work together to ensure that Mark Ridley-Thomas gets elected because this election isn’t just about fighting for our fair share as workers, but about our communities.”

Newly ascendent in the polls, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee traveled to California this week to raise some money.

The Wilshire and Washington blog (the intersection of politics and L.A. celebrity) has more, including how Huckabee fended off attacks that he was soft-on-crime as governor.

"The difference between us is that I did something he never had to do. I carried out the death penalty 16 times, more than any other governor in my state's history," Huckabee told reporters in Los Angeles before attending a Beverly Hills fundraiser. "That's hardly soft on crime when you make that tough decision and actually carry it out."

Fred Thompson, the former actor and Tennessee senator, grabbed the endorsement of the California ProLife Council on Monday.

"There are so many pro-life candidates in the race," said Lawrence Lehr, PAC chairman, in a statement. "But Fred Thompson is clearly the one, consistently pro-life candidate with the ability to win in November. It is important that pro-life voters rally around a candidate that can make a difference."

Meanwhile, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani announced last week his campaign chairs for each Congressional district in California. Former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney already did that.

As the Assembly continues to move toward passing health care legislation, Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata asked the legislative analyst today to study the impact of any health overhaul on the state’s general fund.

The move is yet another sign that Perata has no intent of taking up health legislation until early 2008 – and only then after determining its effect on the state’s dismal finances.

Perata issued a statement last week saying it would be “imprudent and impolitic” to expand health care without considering the budget deficit.

“The real issue now is the deficit and how this squares with everything else that we are going to do,” he said.

Perata spokeswoman Alicia Trost said nothing’s changed, despite the Assembly’s charge toward a floor vote this afternoon on health care (The Assembly Appropriations Committee passed the speaker’s health bill, AB 1X1, earlier today).

“Nothing has changed in Sen. Perata’s position to not bring his caucus before the end of the year,” said Trost.

Further, Perata’s letter suggests he doesn’t plan to rush to act on health care in January, either.

“The Governor is due to deliver his proposed budget on Jan. 10. I would also like to know how the Governor’s spending plan affects the health reform legislation’s underlying finances,” the Senate leader wrote to Liz Hill, the state’s nonpartisan legislative analyst.

If Hill is to include the governor’s newly proposed budget in her analysis, it wouldn’t be available until mid-January, at the earliest.

Lastly, Perata writes that Hill’s financial report “would be especially helpful when the Legislature reconvenes in January and Senate policy and fiscal committees begin conducting public hearings.”

Tack on at least another few days – if not a week – for that.

In the meantime, Assembly Speaker Fabian Núñez and Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger have organized a giant press event for late this afternoon to tout progress in health care, featuring everyone from Andy Stern (national president of the Service Employees International Union) to Alan Autry (mayor of Fresno) to Ron Dellums (mayor of Oakland) to Steve Burd (CEO of Safeway).

The full text of Perata's letter is posted below:

California pollsters Mark Baldassare and Mark DiCamillo today made what is becoming their regular road show at The Sacramento Press Club, where they summarized findings on state public opinion heading into the Feb. 5 presidential primary - now only 51 days away. Here are the highlights:

From Baldassare, president of the Public Policy Institute of California, whose group conducted nine statewide polls in 2007:

• Consumer confidence declined dramatically this year. In the group's January poll, half of Californians expected good economic conditions in the coming year. That dropped to 25 percent in a survey released last week.

• Half of Californians are now worried about the effects of the housing crisis on their personal finances.

• Approval ratings for the governor and Legislature, however, remained relatively stable. Baldassare said state residents are most concerned about issues, including the economy and immigration, that they tend to blame on Washington politicians. His ominous prediction for California politicos: "I don't expect those approval ratings to hold up" as residents become more aware of the state's budget problems.

• Californians register "overwhelming" approval for 10-percent across-the-board budget cuts, Baldassare said, because they think the state could make 30-percent cuts without hurting services. "I think the public feels there is not going to be any pain," he said.

• Fewer Californians than before say they would support tax increases as
a solution to the state's budget woes - a change driven by the fact that many
Democrats have changed their mind on the subject. He attributed the shift in
part to Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's appeal to moderate Democrats and his
consistent opposition to general tax increases. "That speaks to the governor's
popularity and...persuasiveness," Baldassare said. "It's going to really constrain
leadership in terms of politically how to respond to the current budget situation."

• On term limits, one PPIC poll found that voters already think term
limits are shorter than they are. "Only 1 percent said 14 years," - the correct
figure - Baldassare said. "Most people thought eight years, four years, or six
years."

From Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll, which will release a new round of statewide polling on the presidential primary and ballot measures beginning Wednesday (check back with Capitol Alert for the exclusive Field Poll statistical tabulations):

• Hillary Clinton's lead in California polling this year - over 40 percent
support in all surveys - has been driven by her domination of two key
Democratic constituencies, women and Latinos. "It'll take a lot for (Barack)
Obama to break through what I would consider the Clinton firewall that she's
built in California," DiCamillo said.

• Support for Rudy Giuliani among California Republicans has been less
solid, weakening over the course of the year. In contrast to Clinton, his
support has not come from key GOP constituencies, including strong
conservatives and evangelicals.

• The Field Poll will pay close attention to voters' second-choice
candidates under the assumption that the field will shrink after Iowa and New
Hampshire.

• Structural differences between the two parties in California
will also be a factor. Democrats allow nonpartisans to participate in their
primary; Republicans don't. That means as much as 15 percent of the likely
Democratic electorate could be non-partisan voters, who DiCamillo said are less
tied to Clinton and more open to other candidates. Were the Republican rules
similar, he said John McCain and Giuliani would have been the beneficiaries.

• Given the large percentage of Californians who vote by mail, be
careful when you're watching early election returns on Feb. 5.
Mail ballot voters whose votes are reported right after the polls close are more
likely to be older, white non-Hispanic homeowners and more Republican than
Democrat.

• Polling analyses that concentrate on the fact that most voters have
health care are missing what DiCamillo sees as a "real sense of foreboding
about the future." While just 10 percent of voters don't have health coverage,
another four in ten are concerned that they or someone close to them could
lose their health care coverage. Voters are also concerned about rising costs,
including fears that they won't be able to pay the bills for a major illness or
injury.

• The campaign against the term limit initiative could prove pivotal given
that support for the initiative is coming from voters who want to shorten
lawmakers' time in office. "You think to yourself, my God, a "no" campaign
could peel off those voters," DiCamillo said. "I'm a little skeptical about its
chances of passage."

The California Republican Party announced its new finance director, Molly Parnell, a hire from within the party's infrastructure.

Parnell has served as the party's deputy finance director since June of 2006.

The announcement was sent along with good thoughts from GOP elected officials.

"Building a successful Republican Party in California with the resources to succeed demands a professional finance operation," said Senate Republican leader Dick Ackerman in a written statement. "Molly Parnell is exceptionally qualified to lead this effort for the 2008 campaign and beyond."

Assembly Republican leader Mike Villines joined in with "Molly's tireless work ethic, dedication and friendly attitude are a complement to her professionalism and her experience. She's done a tremendous job for the party and we have full confidence that will continue."

Over the weekend, The Bee's Peter Hecht profiled Terry Fancher, the wealthy owner of Hollywood Park and Bay Meadows horse racing tracks.

Fancher, who made his money in real estate, has been the driving financial force behind Propositions 94, 95, 96 and 97, the referendums of the Indian gambling compacts.

He's made millions, and as Hecht reports, hasn't been shy about tossing his money around.

The (horse racing) board was awarding a disputed racing week to the Santa Anita horse track instead of Hollywood Park. So sternly, eloquently – and with raw frankness – Fancher told board members, "I really take umbrage." He then let them know he wasn't getting his money's worth for his political participation.

He came through, he noted, when Democratic leaders in the Legislature approached him worried "because a couple of key (2006 election) races look like they're slipping away."

...

Two weeks before the November 2006 election, a campaign committee heavily funded by Fancher's business interests rushed more than $375,000 to help three Democrats in tight races – Assembly candidate Cathleen Galgiani of Stockton, Assemblywoman Nicole Parra of Hanford and Sen. Lou Correa of Santa Ana. All won. Yet they went on to vote for the Indian gambling compacts Fancher detests.

His intense, costly battle over the Indian casino pacts was already in the works a year ago when the fund manager lectured the racing board for "kicking in the teeth the one ownership" – his – working hardest to save California's horse racing industry.

He declared his determination to keep Hollywood Park open as a racing venue by posing a question. Why else, he asked, "would we spend the millions of dollars … on independent expenditure committees" and "lobbyists, many of whom are in this room?"

Read the rest of Hecht's profile here.

Wishing you good posture in 2008

Meghan Callahan, a campaign and communications strategist at Bicker, Castillo & Fairbanks, sent in the winning entry. For the effort, we're sending her a $20 Starbucks gift card.

Thanks to all the rest of you who sent in so many entries. Even those of you who aren't funny.

Jokes about Gray not missing the deficits of California (or its "gray" fiscal picture) were common. As were entries playing off Mastercard's clearly very successful "priceless" television advertising campaign.

Without further ado, the best of the rest (and at the bottom the Davises' actual message):


Recall me? Living large since I've been Cannes'd.



Merry Christmas! – This trip was NOT paid for by the California State Protocol Foundation



I'm not uptight. This is my bathing suit.



Look ma, no tie!



See Sharon, if you had let me take steroids I would still be governor, not standing here with these half-naked French people. Wait! I'm getting a text message from Jerry - maybe he wants me back!



Remember, skin cancer doesn't take a holiday.



Season's Greetings from Cannes, where Sharon and I are hoping the much vaunted French health care system will be able to surgically remove the Blackberry from my hip.



$14 billion budget gap? Ho, ho, ha!



This year’s cost of financing deficit recovery bond = $1.6 billion
Financing gap to do health care reform = $1.8 billion
Projected state budget deficit = $14 billion
….Chilling in Cannes knowing it’s not your problem = priceless.
Wishing you a happy holiday season and a prosperous new year!



Thank You

The governor said today he will declare a fiscal emergency in January, using an authority granted to him by voters in 2004.

In March of that year, voters passed Proposition 58, which allows the governor to declared a fiscal crisis, calling the Legislature into session.

Kevin Yamamura has more.

For those of you who want to see exactly what Prop. 58 entails, we've posted the full text below:

State Treasurer Bill Lockyer has sent along a holiday season budget note, though the recommendations from the state's banker are hardly full of cheer.

Here's the message in full:

Greetings.

The tooth fairy still hasn't come. And now the State faces a budget deficit of $14 billion. As we work to climb out of the hole, I wanted to share a few thoughts as California's banker.

Think long-term -- Policymakers should not just solve the immediate crisis. They should seize the moment as an opportunity to lay the foundation for a stable fiscal future for California. That requires thinking, planning and acting long-term. It's the only way to get out of this mess, and stay out of it. Californians are just plain tired of a government that can't do any better than lurch from one crisis to the next.

Make "post-partisanship" mean something -- If we want to solve a problem this big, and move California to firm fiscal ground, ideological purity will have to get diluted. We will do a disservice to the people if we take options off the table before we even start. No, we can't just "tax and spend" (to coin a phrase). But we can't just "cut and run" (there's another) either. We have to look at how we raise revenues and how we spend them. We have to consider more carefully the programs we support with the general fund. We have to do a better job of incorporating infrastructure investment in the budget planning process, and develop new ways of financing that investment to save taxpayer dollars.

Penny-wise, fiscally foolish -- If someone told me I could save $1,000 every year on my utility bills if I spent $500 now to make my home more energy efficient, I'd jump at the chance. I think most homeowners would. Much of the time, unfortunately, that's not how the green-eyeshade folks think over at the Department of Finance. They just want to know how much it's going to cost now. We need to move away from the first-year fiscal mentality to more of a life-cycle approach. That's another way of saying we need to think long-term.

Enough with the gimmicks -- We've tried fiscal gimmickry. It's painfully obvious that doesn't work. We probably could "balance" the budget by borrowing more money, suspending laws and cooking the books. But while those moves might make us feel better today, they make us worse off in the long run. We need real solutions, not tricks.

Here are some fiscal and capital investment issues my office raised in the 2007 State of California Debt Affordability Report (issued Oct. 1):

Revenues -- Broadening the sales tax base to include certain services warrants consideration as an option to increase revenue stability. Depending on which services were covered, taking that step could generate tens of billions of dollars annually, according to data from the Franchise Tax Board. Suspending all corporate tax incentive credits with carryovers would bring in an extra $1 billion per year.

Expenditures -- If the state adopted reforms to reduce California's prison recidivism rate to the national average, taxpayers would save up to $1 billion annually. The state could realize a net annual savings of hundreds of millions of dollars if we made the needed investment to make government buildings greener and more energy-efficient. We could realize significant, ongoing savings if we ended general fund support for transportation projects. In fiscal 2008-09, general fund support for transportation is projected at $1.61 billion. The report recommends creating a new statewide transportation financing agency which would work with local governments to develop non-general fund ways to pay for road and transit projects.

Debt service -- New approaches to the way we structure the general obligation (GO) bonds we sell to finance infrastructure projects could substantially reduce debt service payments from the general fund. For example, one model my office is examining could save the general fund close to $1 billion annually, compared to the current approach. We could reduce our interest payments by hundreds of millions of dollars if we sold GO bonds backed by a specific revenue stream from the general fund. That's because bonds retired with a dedicated revenue stream, and additionally secured by the state's full faith and credit, earn higher credit ratings.

Happy holidays,

Bill

Photo Credit: Brian Baer, The Sacramento Bee, August 2007

The Hill, a Washington D.C. political paper, has a story this week about how the change of power in Congress in 2006 thrust many a Californian into powerful leadership posts.

At the top of the list, of course, is Speaker Nancy Pelosi. But the Golden State's D.C. impact hasn't stopped there.

From The Hill

The Southern drawls and Texas twangs of lawmakers like former majority leaders and Texas Republicans Tom DeLay and Dick Armey have given way to California lilts, as the (53-member) California delegation — the largest in Congress — works to change policy and how Washington talks about issues. DeLay, Armey and ex-House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) are all out of office.

Illegal aliens are referred to as undocumented workers by Pelosi and some of her colleagues; corn, cotton and wheat now compete with specialty crops — fruits, nuts and vegetables — for attention in the farm bill; and oil subsidies and drilling have taken a backseat to “green jobs” and the “greening of the Capitol.”

Californians have “infiltrated all the different power centers in the House so they heavily influence the dialogue,” former Democratic Whip Tony Coelho (Calif.) said.

That's not to say all's well in the 53-member group. The paper details some of the divisions in the caucus, such as the rift between Rep. Maxine Waters and Rep. Diane Watson, the attempted ouster of Congressional Hispanic Caucus Chairman Joe Baca by other California Democrats and how Pelosi pulled Rep. Jane Harman from her position in line to chair the powerful House Select Committee on Intelligence.

Working across the aisle doesn't always work, either:

“It is hard to get the Democrats and Republicans to work together even when [California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R)] wants us to act on behalf of the whole state,” Rep. Henry Waxman told The Hill.

See the amended health care legislation here.

Today, the speaker is set to appear at the Long Beach Memorial Medical Center alongside Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger to brief the media on the health negotiations.

Noting the progress in health care negotiations, Senate leader Don Perata issued a statement late Thursday saying "it would be imprudent and impolitic to support an expansion of health care" before addressing the state's budget deficit and its impact on existing programs.

“The real issue now is the deficit and how this squares with everything else that we are going to do,” said Perata, the Senate president pro tem, in the statement.

Despite Perata's statement, Assembly Speaker Fabian Núñez has called Assembly members back to the Capitol on Monday for a floor session, presumably to vote on health care.

Núñez issued a statement saying that “after a solid year of hard work and negotiation, we are now only inches away from finalizing the framework for an historic agreement to deliver universal health care for the people of California."

"I am so confident that we will be successful in reaching agreement that I have called for the Assembly to meet on Monday, December 17 in order to take up and pass AB 1X. With only a little more work and cooperation, California can once again show the nation how it’s done,” Núñez said.

But that doesn't mean that even if a deal is struck, the Senate, under Perata's leadership, will go along.

“While I still strongly favor the concept," Perata said in his statement, "I have been shocked by the recent revelation that next year’s budget is facing a $14 billion deficit and what that could mean."

Here's Perata's statment in full:

“I am encouraged by the progress the Governor, the Assembly Speaker and I have made this year developing a plan for extending health care insurance to the many Californians who do not have it.”

“While I still strongly favor the concept, I have been shocked by the recent revelation that next year’s budget is facing a $14 billion deficit and what that could mean.”

“It would be imprudent and impolitic to support an expansion of health care coverage without knowing how we’re going to pay for vital health programs the state now provides for poor children, their families and the aged, blind and disabled.”

“The real issue now is the deficit and how this squares with everything else that we are going to do.”

When it comes to high-powered television campaign for the four Indian casino referendums, a little revision just went a long way in clearing up proponents' claims over the benefits of a major expansion of Indian gambling in California.

An earlier ad advocating "yes" votes on the casino deals for the Agua Caliente Band of Cahuilla Indians, the Pechanga Band of Luiseño Indians, the Morongo Band of Mission Indians and the Sycuan Band of the Kumeyaay Nation seemed to suggest that California's budget crisis would be greatly eased by one action --voters approving the casino expansions.

The problem was that the tribes, which promised $9 billion in revenue-sharing payments to the state, also seemed to suggest by omission that all that slot machine dough would be cooked up in a single state budget cycle. (See Sacramento Bee ad watch).

But now the tribes' latest ad has fixed things. It reads: "9 billion in new state revenue over the next two decades." Just so you know.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's office has released the names of four more donors to the obscure nonprofit that funds his trips abroad.

The four donors, named Thursday, gave the California State Protocol Foundation a total of $65,000 to attend a Nov. 7 fundraiser in San Francisco, which featured Schwarzenegger and his wife, Maria Shriver.

The disclosure brings the net total raised at the one-evening affair to more than $450,000.

The foundation, which spent more than $4.2 million between 2004 and 2006, had previously refused to name its donors. But disclosure was required by state law after Schwarzenegger technically solicited the funds at the San Francisco event.

The nonprofit foundation’s practice of not naming its donors, while granting tax deductions, has been criticized by nonprofit and government watchdog groups. Most recently, the governor’s office has come under fire for how it accounts for the spending on its behalf by the foundation.

The donors named Thursday are George Opacic of San Francisco ($25,000), John Partridge of San Francisco ($25,000), the Home Builders Association of Northern California ($10,000) and the Fireman's Fund ($5,000).

Late last week, the governor's office released the names of foundation donors for the first time.

The original list included well-known businessmen such as California winemaker Robert Mondavi ($10,000) and Gap Inc. founder Donald Fisher ($25,000).

There's a bunch.

First, Kevin Yamamura has the story that Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has decided to seek across-the-board cuts to state operations.

Second, Aurelio Rojas reports that Assembly Speaker Fabian Núñez wants tax hikes on the table.

In a news conference today introducing Warren Furutani to the Sacramento press corps, Núñez took questions about everything from the state of health-care negotiations to the budget.

As for taxes, Núñez specifically cited the possibility of upping the vehicle license fee, enforcing the use tax and and ending tax breaks for overseas corporations. Rojas reports:

"I think a tax on Internet purchases, obviously, ought to be on the table," Núñez told reporters at a Capitol briefing.

"Any tax credits to major corporations that are overseas and milking California, but not paying taxes here, we've got to look at those tax loopholes," Núñez said.

By closing loopholes, Núñez said, the state can "generate billions of dollars." The speaker said he's discussed with the governor the possibility of increasing the vehicle license fee.

The speaker promised a "conversation" with the public about the realities of the budget.

With deep cuts to the budget, he said, the public needs to know "how many schools would shut down, how many universities would shut down, how many firefighters would be lacking in case of a fire or natural disaster, how many fewer police officers are going to be patroling our streets, how many more criminals are we going to be putting out on the street."

He acknowledged taxes are unpopular but said, "I simply don't think the way you balance the budget is by doing a poll and seeing what is popular with the voters and what isn't."

The latest survey from the Public Policy Institute of California was just shy of 50 questions long and mined data about everything from the budget to the presidential primary to Proposition 93, the term limits measure. Here's a roundup of the results. (With occasional analysis in italitcs).

Republican presidential primary

24 percent Rudy Giuliani 15 Mitt Romney 12 Mike Huckabee 11 John McCain 10 Fred Thompson 3 Duncan Hunter 3 Ron Paul 3 Tom Tancredo 2 someone else

The story: Mike Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor, who surged 10 points since September to jump ahead of John McCain and Fred Thompson.

Democratic presidential primary

44 percent Hillary Clinton 20 Barack Obama 12 John Edwards 3 Joe Biden 3 Dennis Kucinich 3 Bill Richardson -- Chris Dodd -- Mike Gravel 2 someone else (specify) 13 don’t know

Which one issue would you most like to hear the presidential candidates talk about in the upcoming year?

18 percent immigration, illegal immigration 18 jobs, economy 10 health care, health costs 8 housing costs, housing availability, subprime housing crisis 7 education, schools 5 crime, gangs, drugs 5 environment, pollution 4 gasoline prices, oil prices 3 state budget, deficit, taxes 3 traffic, transportation, infrastructure 3 water, water quality, water availability 11 other 5 don’t know

As the PPIC notes, education has dropped to fifth.

Is California going in the right or wrong direction

36 percent right direction 52 wrong direction 12 don’t know

Do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times?

25 percent good times 65 bad times 10 don’t know

Recently some people have proposed changing the way California awards its electoral votes in the presidential election, from a winner-take-all system to a system where electoral votes in each congressional district would be awarded to the winner of that district. Do you think this is a good idea or a bad idea?

44 percent good idea 41 bad idea 15 don’t know

Proposition 93 (when read title and summary)

47 percent yes 38 no

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's approval rating

57 percent approve 37 disapprove 6 don’t know

The Legislature's approval rating

41 percent approve 47 disapprove 12 don’t know

Your legislator's approval rating

51 percent approve 36 disapprove 13 don’t know

With the state facing a potential multi-billion dollar deficit next year, Governor Schwarzenegger recently informed state agency leaders to prepare budgets that cut their spending by 10 percent. Do you think this is a good idea or a bad idea?

68 percent good idea
27 bad idea

Should tax increases be included in the governor's plan?

30 percent yes 65 no

How to solve the budget gap: through cuts, taxes or a mix

42% spending cuts 7 tax increases 36 mix of spending cuts and tax increases 7 okay to borrow money and run a budget deficit 3 other (specify) 5 don’t know

President bush's approval rating

29 percent approve 67 disapprove 4 don’t know

Congress' approval rating

31 percent approve 62 disapprove 7 don’t know

Then there is a whole series of health care questions. The net results: folks want reform, want employers to pay for it, don't mind mandatory insurance -- if there's provisions to help the poor, and are lukewarm on a hospital tax.

If you want even more, the full poll is here.

The California Chamber of Commerce hosts Michael Wilson, the Canadian ambassador to the United States, as a guest speaker at a Sacramento luncheon today.

Earlier this year, the Chamber-affiliated California State Protocol Foundation paid for Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's trade mission to our northern neighbor.
Canada, the Chamber reports, is California’s No. 2 export partner, totaling $14.2 billion in 2006.

That's probably a topic that Wilson will touch on.

Let’s go out on a limb and say the wonders of the Canadian health care system won't be on the agenda in his address to the business lobby.

The four tribes pushing for passage of their gambling compacts have released two new television advertisements. The ads began airing statewide on Wednesday, the campaign reports.

The new ads, like the ones before them, focus on the financial benefit to the state of tribal gambling revenues.

"California faces a growing state budget crisis," one ad begins, flashing a recent headline about the state's $11 billion deficit (which is now projected at $14 billion). "But the new Indian gaming agreements will help by providing billions in new state revenues ."

The other ad features the California Fire Chiefs Association endorsing the measure.

Four Southern California tribes with casinos, the Pechanga Band of Luiseno Indians, the Agua Caliente Band of Cahuilla Indians, the Morongo Band of Mission Indians and the Sycuan Band of the Kumeyaay Nation, are hoping for passage of Propositions 94, 95, 96 and 97 to expand the number of slot machines they can operate.

Those tribes have already built a $34.4 million war chest to air TV ads, send out mailers and just generally get out the vote.

Watch the ads below.

WASHINGTON - Former state lawmaker Tim Leslie, R-Carmichael, wants Attorney General Michael Mukasey either to indict Rep. John Doolittle and his wife Julie “or leave them and our community alone.”

In a rambling letter to the attorney general dated Dec. 7, Leslie complained about the corruption investigation that has dragged on nearly three years.

“I really do not think you understand how much turmoil has been created - not just for the congressman and his wife, but for nearly a half million people that have been thrown into limbo” in his congressional district, Leslie said.

Leslie said he thinks federal prosecutors know they don’t have a case and, in an effort to “save face,” they’ve decided “to make the Doolittles’ life as difficult as possible in hopes of forcing them to resign.”

In a telephone interview Wednesday, Leslie said he sent the letter without any coaxing from the Doolittles. He also said he won’t run for Doolittle’s seat if the congressman decides not to run for a 10th term.

Ron Rogers, Doolittle’s top aide, said the congressman had nothing to do with the letter and is not trying to whip up a letter-writing campaign. The Justice Department refuses to talk about the Doolittle investigation.

-- David Whitney, Bee Washington Bureau

The second time was the charm for Warren Furutani, who lost a 2006 bid for the state Assembly, but finished first in the primary election on Tuesday and is all but on his way to Sacramento next year.

Furutani, a Los Angeles Community College board member, topped Carson city council member Mike Gipson with 49 percent of the vote. Gipson finished second with 38 percent, followed by two minor-party candidates.

The race featured quite a bit of independent spending, with the local paper, the Daily Breeze, reporting today that more money was spent independently for Gipson than his campaign itself raised.

Furutani narrowly missed avoiding a Feb. 5 runoff, falling just shy of 50 percent of the vote. With no Republican candidates in the race, he will face off against two minor party opponents in the heavily Democratic district.

As is Capitol custom, politicians past and present deluge the political community with holiday cheer in the form of mass-printed holiday cards.

This year, former Gov. Gray Davis sent out his holiday greeting featuring a photo and himself and wife, Sharon, on the beach in Cannes, France.

Gray, clad in slacks and a mobile device, along with Sharon, in a pink and white ensemble, look ... well ... you tell us what they look like. (They're obviously wearing more than the bikini-clad lady in the background.)

That’s because it’s time for another caption contest – but this time with a twist.

We’re looking for you to write Gray’s holiday greeting.

Here’s what you do:

1. Look at the picture.
2. Pick a holiday greeting (or a plain old caption).
3. E-mail it in.

When you send in your quips to captions@capitolalert.com, feel free to request anonymity. But only those willing to have their real names published can win the grand prize: a $20 gift card to Starbucks.

We'll pick the best of the lot and publish them -- along with the Davis' official holiday message.

• Don't get too excited now, but state Treasurer Bill Lockyer's office reports it has created a Web site devoted to debt affordability.

• The 600,000 member SEIU California State Council voted to oppose Proposition 92, the community college measure on the Feb. 5 ballot.

• Speaking of the Service Employees International Union, the labor group's state council gave $500,000 to the term limits campaign on Tuesday. That brings their total donated to Yes on 93 to $700,000, making the SEIU the campaign's top donor.

• Dick Ackerman was at the White House for a Christmas party. “I congratulated the president and said, ‘Stay tough,’" Ackerman told the OC Register.

• Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney has announced district leaders in each of California's 53 congressional districts. We don't know who a lot of these people are, but we share the list anyway:

CD 1 – Mike Harvey
CD 2 – Brenda Haynes
CD 3 – Tom Scott
CD 4 – Brian Jensen
CD 5 – Matt Donaldson
CD 6 – Michael Erickson
CD 7 – Glenna Phillips
CD 8 – Scott Erickson
CD 9 – Richard Amoroso
CD 10 – Greg Poulos
CD 11 – Leslie Barkdull
CD 12 – Michael Helmantolar
CD 13 – Claudia Bermudez
CD 14 – Gary Gechlik
CD 15 – Harold Stuart
CD 16 – Don Ainge
CD 17 – Warren Luch
CD 18 – Jill Fritchen
CD 19 – Jody Hutchens
CD 20 – Kevin Cranney
CD 21 – Landon Whitney
CD 22 – David Adams
CD 23 – Erik Peoples
CD 24 – Denise Nielsen
CD 25 – Paul Strickland
CD 26 – Rex Gutierez
CD 27 – John Huckvale
CD 28 – Pam Lutzker
CD 29 – Ara Kachadourian
CD 30 – David Benning
CD 31 – Daniel Seminario
CD 32 – Mike Spence
CD 33 – Johnnie Morgan
CD 34 – Daniel Nowell
CD 35 – Justin Tolton
CD 36 – Sergio Picchio
CD 37 – Vic Dennis
CD 38 – Darlene Reed-Asuega
CD 39 – Teresa Trujillo
CD 40 – Jonia Broderick
CD 41 – Sam Racadio
CD 42 – Ed Tolman
CD 43 – Ben Lopez
CD 44 – Joe Ludwig
CD 45 – Joe Wojcik
CD 46 – J. Devin Dwyer
CD 47 – Trung Nguyen
CD 48 – Lou Penrose
CD49 – Michael Bender, Virginia Hall
CD 49 – Virginia Hall
CD 50 – Vicki Bush
CD 51 – Rose Banks
CD 52 – Judy Riddle
CD 53 – John Rivera

Sen. Jeff Denham's campaign has filed an official complaint with the attorney general's office about the use of out-of-district signature gatherers by the backers of the effort to recall him.

Capitol Alert wrote about the controversy earlier this week.

"We are asking state authorities to look into several potential illegal actions by the recall proponents," said Chuck Bell, attorney for Friends of Jeff Denham committee, in a written statement. "California election law is clear, signature gatherers must live in the district. It appears that recall proponents are purposely ignoring the law, and we're asking law enforcement to step in and prosecute this matter."

Denham, an Atwater Republican, refused to support the budget earlier this year, earning the ire of Democrats, including Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata. A Perata-backed campaign committee, the Voter Education and Registration Fund, along with the Democratic Party, have combined to spend about $130,000 on the recall effort.

Denham's supporters taped signature gatherers saying they were from outside the district, which state law does not allow.

Paul Hefner, a spokesman for Perata and the Voter Education and Registration Fund, has counter-accused those supporters of illegally taping conversations without consent.

And on it goes.

Correction: The original headline on this post said Denham had filed an FPPC complaint. That was incorrect. His campaign filed a complaint with the attorney general's office, as the text of the story says.

The battle over the four Indian compacts on the February ballot already figured to be an expensive one.

But the costs – and stakes – went up today when the Pala Band of Mission Indians donated $2.5 million to oppose rival tribes' casino expansion compacts on the Feb. 5 ballot.

The tribe, which operates a casino near San Diego, had previously given $500,000 to gather signatures for the four referendums to challenge the compacts, but had not promised to financially back the campaign itself.

In August, tribal attorney Howard Dickstein, who represents Pala and a second tribe which gave $500,000 for signature gathering, the United Auburn Indian Community, told The Bee, "What they have decided is to provide financial support for the signature gathering. If and when it qualifies for the ballot, they will have a fresh look at what, if any, participation they will have in the campaign."

Now it’s clear that Pala, which runs the Pala Casino Spa & Resort, is backing the effort to overturn the compacts, at least to the initial tune of $2.5 million.

The last time the Pala tribe donated to the referendum effort, a similar sized check was sent by the United Auburn tribe within two weeks.

Al Lundeen, a spokesman for the referendum effort, wouldn’t comment if more money was on the way from United Auburn , saying that revealing the campaign’s finances “would give our strategy away.”

As for the $2.5 million, he said, “We’ve felt all along we would be running a campaign until Election Day and this gives us a better opportunity to do that.”

Beside Pala and United Auburn, most of the funding for the referendum campaign, which is urging a ‘no’ vote on Propositions 94, 95, 96 and 97, has come from the Bay Meadows and Hollywood Park horse racing tracks. Another $1 million came from Unite HERE, a hotel and restaurant workers union, which wants better access to organize casino workers.

All told those groups have reported raising $8.7 million, though much of the money was spent qualifying the referendums for the ballot.

On Feb. 5, California voters will decide whether to approve deals to allow thousands of new slot machines in the casinos of four Southern California tribes, the Pechanga Band of Luiseno Indians, the Agua Caliente Band of Cahuilla Indians, the Morongo Band of Mission Indians and the Sycuan Band of the Kumeyaay Nation.

Those tribes have already built a $34.4 million warchest and have spent money airing ads on television. They argue the state's share of gambling revenues will help the state pay for vital public services.

"Pala has unlimited slot machines in its compact,” said Roger Salazar, a spokesman the tribes supporting the compacts. “They are using this money to stop competition without any regard for what it can do to the state’s budget.”

Jasmyne Cannick, a blogger and former aide to Long Beach Congresswoman Laura Richardson, went looking for a Black Santa in Los Angeles.

And she found one at the Baldwin Hills Crenshaw Plaza.

"I was so happy to see him, I think I had a twinkle in my eye," she writes, after paying $12 for her photo with Santa.

Hat tip: LAObserved.

Prominent defense attorney Cris Arguedas, partner of state Sen. Carole Migden, joined the defense team of baseball star Barry Bonds last week, as the long-time San Francisco Giant pleaded not guilty to charges of perjury.

As a lawyer, Arguedas is perhaps best known for her role in preparing O.J. Simpson for a potential cross-examination during his murder trial. He never took the stand. Bonds isn’t Arguedas’ only client with ties to BALCO, the steroids-connected laboratory.

From the San Francisco Chronicle:

Arguedas briefly represented former U.S. sprint champion Tim Montgomery, who also testified before the grand jury that investigated BALCO. Montgomery told the grand jury that he had used banned drugs and also testified that he had been told by Victor Conte, BALCO's founder, that Bonds was using drugs from BALCO as well.

Experts said it was possible that a conflict could arise for Arguedas if Montgomery became a government witness against Bonds.

Arguedas is hardly Bonds’ only lawyer. She is part of high-profile six-member legal team for Bonds, which includes a second member of her firm, Ted Cassman.

Below is a photo of Migden and Arguedas in a 2004 same-sex marriage ceremony in San Francisco, officiated by Mayor Gavin Newsom

Photo Credits: Tony Avelar, AP and AP file photo

State Controller John Chiang reports that California's revenues in November were above projections, largely on the strength of corporate taxes. But the state's chief financial officer warns "we are not out of the woods."

The numbers come in Chiang's monthly report on the state's cash balance. If that sounds exciting to you, then click here.

For the month, General Fund receipts were $62 million, or 1 percent above estimates, with corporate taxes up by $113 million, while income taxes fell $24 million shy of projections.

In advance of Sen. Barack Obama's appearance tonight in Los Angeles with live music from the Goo Goo Dolls, California Republican Party Chairman Ron Nehring issued a dour statement.

"Appearing with Hollywood celebrities and holding hip-hop and alternative rock concerts does nothing to hide the inexperience and record of no accomplishments that Barack Obama brings to this presidential race.

"While endorsements from Hollywood elites may appeal to the left-wing fringe groups of the Democrat party, it will do nothing to convince voters in California that a rookie like Obama is qualified to be leader of the free world."

Oprah Winfrey could not be reached for comment.

Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, won San Diego's Republican straw poll late last week.

But the more notable fact was the second place finisher, Texas Rep. Ron Paul, the libertarian-leaning GOP candidate. He finished with 23 percent of the vote.

That's no accident. Paul supporters have been storming straw polls across the world, from Iowa City to Seoul, Korea.

His campaign site lists no less than 26 straw polls in which the Texas Republican has finished in first place.

But Paul supporters ran into trouble last week at the San Francisco Republican Alliance's straw poll, which was canceled after dozens of Paul supporters poured into the hotel conference room for the vote.

A Paul supporter took an amateur video:

You've got to give it to porn star and one-time gubernatorial candidate Mary Carey. She knows how to keep herself in the public eye. This time, she is auctioning off her old breast implants.

Of course, they are on eBay.

Carey recently finished up a stint in rehab and writes on the auction site, "Now that I’m sober, I wanted a new physical state to go along with my new mental state. I thought the auction would be a great way to spread some holiday cheer and to make sure someone out there has a Mary Mary Christmas."

She's also posted a letter from the Susan G. Komen Breast Cancer Foundation, which promises that she will donate 20 percent of the proceeds to the group.

As of this writing, there have been 114 bids, with the highest price at $15,200.

Oh, and shipping and handling is $12.

The photo was posted by Carey on eBay

The recall effort of Sen. Jeff Denham and Denham's campaign traded charges late last week over audio recordings of signature gatherers saying they were from outside Denham's district.

Jake Henshaw at the Salinas Californian has the story today:

At issue are charges from Denham that recall proponents are illegally using signature-gatherers from out of state or district to collect the 31,084 signatures necessary to put the issue before 12th Senate District voters in Monterey County and all or parts of four other counties stretching into the Central Valley.

At least one section of the California election code says only registered voters in the district of the elected official targeted for recall may circulate recall petitions.

...

"These people (volunteers) have come to us and said, 'These things are going on,' and we said, 'We don't have proof,' and they went out and got proof," Clark said.

He said the Denham campaign has directed its attorneys to prepare a complaint that was to be filed Friday or (Monday) with the attorney general.

So far the Democratic Party and a campaign committee linked to Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata, the Voter Education and Registration Fund, have spent more than $130,000 in the recall Denham campaign. They must gather 31,084 signatures by Feb. 13, 2008 to qualify the recall for the ballot.

The Democrats were none too pleased with the charges of illegal signature gathering. Henshaw quotes Paul Hefner, a spokesman for both Perata and the Voter Education and Registration Fund.

He charged the Denham campaign appears to have violated a state law prohibiting taping confidential conversations without the consent of all participants.

"The only question I have is what did Sen. Denham know about these clearly orchestrated efforts to spy on his own constituents to try to hang onto his job," Hefner said.

He said his organization may call for action by district attorneys in the affected counties.

"Quite frankly I am staring at letters to district attorneys trying to decide whether we need to investigate," Hefner said.

Ah, politics.

As for the tapes themselves, Jon Fleischman at the FlashReport linked to the recordings on Friday.

The California Chamber of Commerce today announced its support for the four Indian gambling measures on the Feb. 5 ballot.

After a board meeting in San Francisco, the business group also said it will oppose a transportation funding initiative.

But after secret balloting, the chamber said its position on a measure that would relax term limits in the Legislature will be announced "on or before December 20."

Chamber spokeswoman Denise Davis declined to give a reason for withholding the group's position, saying only "that's the way the board decided to handle it."

In a prepared statement, Chamber President Allan Zaremberg encouraged voters to support Propositions 94, 95, 96 and 97.

The measures would allow previously negotiated tribal compacts between the State of California and four tribes to go into effect.

Zaremberg said the measures "will protect a steady and significant revenue source to the state's general fund and help pay for schools, roads and bridges, public safety and health care."

He said the board voted to oppose Proposition 91, a transportation funding initiative, because "the measure is no longer needed following passage of Proposition 1A in November 2006."

The group previously announced its opposition to Proposition 92, which would lower community college fees and set aside a percentage of the state budget for the two-year schools.

The chamber contends the measure would aggravate the state's $10-billion budget deficit and threaten the state's ability to address other needs, like health care, public safety and education.

Written by Aurelio Rojas of the Bee Capitol Bureau.

Can’t figure out what to give a political junkie this holiday season?
Stop by the Northern California Chapter of the American Political Items Collectors’ annual show and sale Sunday to pick up campaign buttons, presidential posters and other historical items.

This well-established political memorabilia group with 300 members from Fresno to the Oregon border is inviting the public to bring items from home for an appraisal. If it’s worth something, visitors can choose to auction off their belongings for cash.

According to chapter president Adam Gottlieb, one man walked away with $4,600 one year after selling documents belonging to 23rd President Benjamin Harrison along with an assortment of buttons and memorabilia collected by his grandfather.

“A felt beanie for Adlai Stevenson went for $40,” said Gottlieb, a self-professed political geek who specializes in Teddy Roosevelt. “You never know what you’ve got sitting around the house.”

The event is being held in Curtis Hall at Sierra 2 Center, 2791 24th St., Sacramento. Doors open at 10 a.m. Admission is $3 for members and $4 for non-members. Kids under 15 get in free.

With the state budget facing a $10 billion hole, local government officials are bracing for the worst – a potential state raid on their funds – despite passage of a ballot measure in 2004 that supposedly put a lockbox on their funding.

“It can be seen as a target pot by those sitting in Sacramento,” said Rich Gordon, the newly elected president of the California State Association of Counties, of local government funds.

Jim Madaffer, president of the League of California Cities and a San Diego city council member, said he has heard rumors of the state wanting to “balance the budget on the back of local government.”

To balance past budgets, lawmakers and the governor have shifted property taxes away from local governments to area schools. That lowered the amount of school spending that had to come out of the state’s General Fund, helping balance the state’s books.

But Proposition 1A, passed by more than 80 percent of voters in 2004, put an end to that practice, unless the governor declares a “fiscal necessity” and receives a two-thirds vote in the Legislature.

That’s a high bar. But with Republicans holding steadfast to their no new taxes mantra and Democrats unlikely to accept deep cuts to social service and education programs, local governments could wind up short on cash, advocates fear.

As Elizabeth Hill, the state’s nonpartisan legislative analyst, said when her office projected the $10 billion deficit, "All the easy solutions are gone.”

“We all understood from day one that under Prop. 1A we had to provide the state with some flexibility in the case of a catastrophe,” said Gordon, a San Mateo County supervisor. But “the structural budget deficit of the state of California is not a natural disaster. It is a disaster that is man made. I think the good men and women of Sacramento should be working to solve that.”

If Proposition 1A were suspended, the state could feel a one-time budgetary relief. But the proposition calls for the funds to be repaid – with interest – in the following three fiscal years. Even then, the measure can be suspended only twice in a decade.

Neither the legislative leadership nor Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who led the push for Proposition 1A, has ruled out transferring local monies to the state.

“We’re not going to rule anything out until we examine all the options,” said Lynda Gledhill, a spokeswoman for Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata.

“Whether it’s this issue or any other, I am not going to comment on what options the governor will consider,” said H.D. Palmer, a spokesman for Schwarzenegger’s Department of Finance.

Palmer did note that Schwarzenegger has been “very clear about wanting to prevent the state from taking the kinds of actions it had made in prior years where the state used local revenues to help balance Sacramento’s books.”

Assembly Republican leader Mike Villines said, “There is nothing that can be considered non-touchable.” But the Clovis Republican added, “It’s not fair to look at (local government) as a cash cow for the state.”

Suspending Proposition 1A isn’t the only way the state’s General Fund could get a boost from siphoning money away from local government-backed programs.

Marianne O'Malley, the local government specialist at the Legislative Analyst’s Office, noted, “There’s a variety of statutory relationships between state and local government that in times of fiscal difficulty are placed under additional review.”

For example, O'Malley cited the COPS program, which provides discretionary funding to local police departments and sheriffs at a cost of around $200 million to the state.

“Proposition 1A does not talk about any other sources of local or state–local revenues,” she said.

Local governments are hardly the only interests fearing cutbacks in the coming budget.

The education community – which had been gearing up for the “year of education reform” – is now bracing to protect its current levels of funding. Community college advocates have placed Proposition 92, which would lock in a portion of state funding for the post-secondary schools, on the Feb. 5 ballot. Health and welfare program proponents, meanwhile, are trying to stave off cuts to programs that perennially have been among the first to be put on the chopping block.

The biggest hope for local government advocates, they say, is Schwarzenegger’s history as a supporter of their cause. Gordon called him “a real friend of county government” and said that, if contacted, he would be willing to sit down with the administration to discuss the budget. Madaffer called Schwarzenegger a “solid, staunch supporter.”

But the governor’s past doesn’t quell their fears about the future.

“Local governments are the last place they should be looking to raid,” said Madaffer. Noting the 80-plus percent of voters who backed Proposition 1A, he said, “That’s a pretty strong mandate.”

Five more lawmakers are saying thanks, but no thanks, to a $3,110 pay increase that took effect days ago.

Turning thumbs down this week were Sen. Christine Kehoe, D-San Diego; Sen. Alan Lowenthal, D-Long Beach; and Assemblymembers John Benoit, R-Palm Desert; Ted Lieu, D-Torrance; and Mimi Walters, R-Laguna Niguel.

The newcomers' names appeared in a list released Thursday by the state controller's office. Thirteen legislators previously had declined the 2.75 percent increase.

Beginning this week, Senate and Assembly salaries rose from $113,098 to $116,208. Their pay is set by an independent citizens commission created by voters through Proposition 112 in 1990.

Legislators also are entitled to about $34,000 in tax-free per diem to cover living expenses while in Sacramento.

Four capital-area officials decline the per diem: Assemblyman Dave Jones and Sen. Darrell Steinberg, both of Sacramento; Assemblywoman Lois Wolk, D-Davis; and Assemblyman Roger Niello, R-Fair Oaks.

The pay raise, approved five months ago, takes effect as the state is projecting a $10 billion budget shortfall.

A total of 101 legislators thus far have accepted the raise.

It looks like former Sen. Jackie Speier's unofficial campaign for Congress has handed over some early poll numbers to Roll Call (reg. required), the Washington D.C. political newspaper.

Not surprisingly, the poll shows Speier doing very well -- holding a 30-point edge (57 percent to 27 percent) over Rep. Tom Lantos, the long-time Bay Area Democrat.

The poll was conducted by Democratic pollster Jim Moore at the end of October.

Members of the California Nations Indian Gaming Association, a coalition of both nongambling and gambling tribes, gather in San Diego today to pick the organization's next leader.

The group, known as CNIGA, also faces an internal battle over the relative roles and relations between tribes that operate Indian casinos and those that don't.

For the first time in twenty years, the group is considering raising dues on nongambling tribes.

The San Diego Union-Tribune reports:

The California Nations Indian Gaming Association, a fractious mix of gaming and nongaming tribes, will consider raising dues for nongaming members for the first time since the organization was founded in 1988.

Two proposals, to boost minimum annual dues from $650 to $5,000 or $10,000, are on the agenda for the meeting at the U.S. Grant Hotel. The debate is expected to be heated, and the results could prompt another exodus from the 65-member organization.

“If it's raised to $10,000, that's something we're going to have to look at,” said Matt Franklin, chairman of the Ione band of Northern California. “That's a big expense, and we're not a gaming tribe.”

As a result, the nongambling tribes are considering splitting, said Franklin.

As for the leadership of the group, current chairman Anthony Miranda, a member of the casino-operating Pechanga Band of Luiseño Indians, hasn't said if he will seek another term on the job, the U-T reported.

• Rep. Devin Nunes' wife, Elizabeth, gave birth to a baby girl, the couple's first child, on Wednesday. Evelyn Rose Nunes weighed in a six pounds, 13 ounces. Fresno Bee.

• Former California Republican Party communications director Karen Hanretty makes an appearance in this month's Glamour magazine. She's profiled as one of 10 "powerhouses under 40" working for the presidential candidates (Hanretty's with former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson).

Says Hanretty, "I’m most satisfied after I’ve done a great live interview. There’s something about being in the chair, your mike is on, you can’t stop and start over, you can’t walk away, and you get the question you weren’t expecting and you just nail it."

• On Wednesday, Senate Republican leader Dick Ackerman turned 65. The Orange County Register's Martin Wiskol stumbled into his birthday party at the Fullerton Yacht Club.

• Jeffrey Ray Nielsen, a former aide to Orange County Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, R-Huntington Beach, pleaded guilty to two cases of child molestation. He accepted a three-year prison sentence. Orange County Register.

• The Rumsey Band of Wintun Indians are supporting the compacts on the Feb. 5 ballot. Business Journal.

Allan Zaremberg, president of the California Chamber of Commerce, submitted four versions of a water bond aimed for the November 2008 ballot on Wednesday.

Find the four versions of the measure, the Comprehensive Safe Drinking Water, Water Supply Reliability, and Delta Restoration Act of 2008, here.

The move comes as water talks in the Capitol have failed to yield a deal and brings the state one step closer to competing water proposals -- one backed by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and one backed by Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata -- on the November ballot.

Perata filed his own water bond initiative in mid-October. He has held off on gathering signatures for the measure while negotiations have continued in the Capitol for a water deal.

The Bee's E.J. Schultz has more details.

The "masters of disasters" are back. This time, plus one.

The Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers, which is battling striking writers in the public perception world, is turning to a trio of political veterans to improve the TV and filmmaking studios' image.

The studios have hired Chris Lehane and Mark Fabiani, long-time Democratic consultants who specialize in crisis management, along with Steve Schmidt, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's 2006 campaign manager.

The Los Angeles Times has the details:

The move reflects a concerted push by the alliance to take a more aggressive approach in its public relations after polls conducted by Pepperdine University, Fox News and SurveyUSA showed widespread public support for the writers, now in their fifth week of a strike.
...
Since the strike began, the Writers Guild of America has mounted a highly effective PR campaign against the major studios and the media conglomerates that own them. Though the guild has tapped some media consultants, it has largely managed its public relations in-house, harnessing the writing talents of members to promote its cause.

Former Assemblyman Joe Nation took the first official step toward entering the Bay Area race for state Senate this week, opening an exploratory account.

Nation, a three-term lawmaker who termed out of the state Assembly in 2006, detailed his plans to Capitol Alert last month.

“It is not a decision to run but to at least conduct a poll, look at the numbers, and see what the path to victory looks like,” he said.

The race is expected to be among the most heated of 2008, with Assemblyman Mark Leno challenging Sen. Carole Migden. Both are liberal, openly gay San Francisco Democrats. San Francisco Police Commission member Joe Alioto Veronese, the son of long-time city politico Angela Alioto and grandson of former Mayor Joseph Alioto, is also in the race.

Republican political consultant Matt Rexroad, clearly not a fan of Migden, already has an analysis posted.

In a one on one race with Migden and Leno -- I like Leno's chances. He is every bit as liberal only he is much nicer. That is not saying much. Leno had done a great job of gathering up all of the anti-Migden forces until others started having the same idea. ...

Now Joe Nation has opened an account. ... He would divide the anti-Migden forces again ... and almost certainly hand her re-election.

That differs from the take of David Latterman, a San Francisco pollster, who said in early November, that Nation's potential entrance "hurts Carole."

There's no activity yet, but you can see Nation's campaign account here.

Blogger Alan Katz, a past president of the California Association of Health Underwriters, is feeling glum about the prospects for a health care deal that could potentially go to voters in November 2008.

"Could the Governor actually get an initiative passed?" asks Katz, who once served as chief of staff to Lt. Gov. Leo McCarthy. "I don’t think so."

From his blog:

How the ballot measure is drafted will, to a great extent, define the initiative’s supporters and opponents — and the size of their war chests. The Governor certainly can’t count on Labor support. If the Administration was willing to accept a reform package palatable to the unions and their allies there would be no legislative deadlock. Fortunately for the Governor, the unions will be spreading their campaign resources over several other ballot measures and a host of candidates next November. What’s in the initiative — and what’s not — will influence the temperature of Labor’s opposition and how hard they strive to find the resources to defeat it.

The same holds true, in reverse, for the business community — what’s in the measure will determine the nature of their support. The state Chamber of Commerce has yet to come out in favor of the Governor’s current plan, although the Los Angeles and San Jose chapters have. Incorporating too much of the (Democrats') ideas could result in the state organization coming out in opposition to the proposal.

Then there's the question of how the program is funded. From Katz:

The Governor’s approach to funding reforms could generate substantial opposition to the initiative. If he turns to the cigarette tax as Democrats propose, the tobacco industry will pour millions into the campaign to defeat it. Leasing the lottery, as the Administration has proposed, might bring out opposition from the education community. Add them to pharmaceutical and insurance companies likely to oppose the initiative and the “No” campaign won’t have funding worries.

For further reading, the San Francisco Chronicle's Tom Chorneau has a story today about the dimming prospects for a deal.

But Katz isn't quite ready to throw in the towel. "If anyone can buck the a trend, it’s Governor Schwarzenegger."

P.S. We're adding Katz's blog to Capitol Alert's list of top blogs covering California politics. It's a list worth checking out.

Assembly Speaker Fabian Núñez has announced his opposition to Proposition 92, the community college measure on the Feb. 5 ballot. He joins Senate leader Don Perata in opposing the initiative, which would lower community college costs and set aside a chunk of the budget for the post-secondary schools.

He issued a statement: "Proposition 92, while well-intended, doesn't help us achieve our goal of ensuring all students have a chance to go to college. Prop. 92 does nothing to help low-income students with costs at all and the flawed financing approach to Prop. 92 could negatively impact students who seek to continue their education at four-year universities."

Capitol Alert reported about the two teachers unions -- California's largest -- at odds over the measure here.

• Pencil the Pechanga Band of Luiseño Indians in for another $5.3 million in support of the compacts on the Feb. 5 ballot (Proposition 94 through 97).

• It's the 40th birthday of Jon Fleischman, publisher of the FlashReport. A litany of GOP-types are wishing him a happy birthday, including the target of much of his conservative criticism, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.

• One of those well-wishers, former Gov. Pete Wilson communications man and Republican political strategist Dan Schnur, has been named an executive vice president at Edelman. He'll serve as VP and director of the public relations firm's California public affairs office.

• At today's Public Policy Institute of California event, former GOP leader Jim Brulte said he supports Proposition 93, the term-limits measure.

• Late last week, the conservative California Republican Assembly posted its 2007 legislative scorecard. The lowest scoring Republican was Sen. Abel Maldonado (50 out of 100). The highest scoring Democrat was Assemblywoman Nicole Parra (25).

Those with a perfect score: Assembly members Joel Anderson, Chuck DeVore, Mike Duvall and Mimi Walters and Sens. Jim Battin, Dave Cogdill, Dennis Hollingsworth and Tom McClintock .

• More independent expenditure money keeps coming through the pipeline in the Dec. 11 Assembly Democratic primary race between Mike Gipson and Warren Furutani.

The total independent spending for Gipson now tops $125,000, though that still trails Furutani's roughly $270,000. Capitol Alert looked more in depth at the IE spending last week.

As the presidential primaries close in, the polls multiply.

The latest comes from Survey USA, which shows former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani with a double-digit lead above a scrum of four Republicans -- John McCain, Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee, with between 13 percent and 19 percent support.

Giuliani pulled in 32 percent support, followed by McCain at 18 percent. McCain's support among moderates rose seven percentage points, while Giuliani's dropped four points, Survey USA reports.

New York Sen. Hillary Clinton continues to hold a commanding lead in the Golden State, wtih 50 percent support. Illinois Sen. Barack Obama trails with 24 percent, followed by former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina with 16 percent.

The poll was conducted with 505 people identified as likely to vote in the Republican primary, with a sampling error of 4.4 percent. In the Democratic primary, the poll surveyed 735 likely voters, with a 3.7 percent sampling error.

The internal politicking of the State Council of the SEIU continues, with Tyrone Freeman, president of the one of the largest local affiliates in the state, firing off a sharply worded response letter to outgoing state council president Sal Rosselli.

The internal leadership battle within the powerful Service Employees International Union, which counts 600,000 members in California, has potential implications for the health care overhaul in California, as the union coalition’s stance on health care is one ostensible reason for the leadership fight.

In his letter, Freeman, whose union was singled out for criticism in a letter from Rosselli sent to the state council on Sunday, argued for seeking “common ground” in crafting a health plan.

“What is being proposed is not perfect. No one is saying otherwise. As a labor union, we can and must continue to be visionary. But being visionary also means being able to recognize an opportunity to pass a sweeping reform that pragmatically restructures our health care system to make quality care available and affordable,” Freeman wrote. (The full letter is posted at the bottom of this post)

Freeman also took “great exception to our efforts being portrayed as some kind of insurgency or takeover among SEIU Locals,” in his letter, which was addressed to national SEIU president Andy Stern.

Rosselli, who withdrew his name as a candidate for SEIU state council president on Sunday, said in his letter that the election to replace him "defies acceptable notions of fairness."

Rosselli, who represents the United Healthcare Workers, specifically cited Freeman's union, the United Long-Term Healthcare Workers Union Local 6434, for being in arrears of payments to the state council.

"The idea that organizations like SEIU Locals 6434 and 1877 will be able to fully participate (in the election) while owing more than $1.5 million in back dues defies acceptable notions of fairness with regard to union democracy," Rosselli wrote.

Freeman and Rosselli’s local affiliates are among the largest SEIU units in the state, each with more than 100,000 members of the 600,000 workers represented by the SEIU state council.

Allies of Rosselli have characterized the leadership fight as the workings of Stern, the national SEIU president. But in Friday's Los Angeles Times, Freeman portrayed the leadership struggle as a battle between himself and Rosselli.

From the LAT:

Asked about the move to change leadership, Freeman said Rosselli had often acted based on "his ideological belief about how things ought to happen with the de facto inclusion of other leaders."

He disputed assertions of Rosselli's allies that Stern was masterminding the leadership change. "It would be more of a story of Tyrone Freeman and Sal Rosselli," Freeman said. "I have a very big local that is bigger than his. We've got impact, and we just believe things ought to be done differently."

Following Rosselli’s withdrawal on Monday, Local 721 president Annelle Grajeda, who was appointed to her post by Stern, was the only declared candidate for president of the state council.

In Freeman's letter, sent Monday, he questioned Rosselli's tact as leader on health care negotiations in the state.

"SEIU International has rightly recognized that old methods and tactics don’t work—that we are facing a new day that requires, not compromise, but a different type of dialogue, where approaches are no longer strictly adversarial, but, in contrast, seek to find common ground. This isn’t acquiescence, it’s pragmatism, and it is the road to opening doors, where for years they have been closed," Freeman wrote.

He continued, “Those who typically stand at ideological odds have come together to hash out a proposal that is a big step toward making inroads in a decades-long struggle to provide healthcare to those who go without. While it may not mirror the panacea we may have put forth in our internal meetings, it represents important progress toward providing coverage for the six million Californians who have none."

We've posted the full text of Freeman's letter below. See Rosselli’s letter here:

Sure, her husband lands on a lot of magazine covers.

But first lady Maria Shriver graces the cover of Sactown magazine this month, talking about one of her pet projects, the California Museum's Hall of Hame, which will induct its latest set of members on Wednesday.

They are: Ansel Adams, Milton Berle, Steve Jobs, Willie Mays, Robert Mondavi, Rita Moreno, Jackie Robinson, Jonas Salk, M.D., John Steinbeck, Elizabeth Taylor, Earl Warren, John Wayne and Tiger Woods.

Shriver's office has posted her interview online, though it breaks little new ground.

U.S. News and World Report -- best known for its rankings of American colleges and universities -- has released its first ever ranking of public high schools.

California public schools pepper the top 100 list -- including Pacific Collegiate Charter in Santa Cruz which ranks second.

All told, 23 California schools rank in the top 100, tops in the nation (Of course, we're also the biggest state.) Of those 10 are in Los Angeles County and five are in Santa Clara County.

None are in Sacramento.

There's a new report out from the Public Policy Institute of California, looking at three commonly discussed areas for potential legislative reform in Sacramento: redistricting, term limits and the supermajority vote necessary to pass the budget.

Eric McGhee, a research fellow at the PPIC, authored the report, which outlines the arguments surrounding each of the three "reform" concepts, though he offers no official policy prescription.

The toughest words in the report come in the introduction. It begins: "Most observers believe that the model legislature should be competent, bipartisan, and efficient, but many feel that the California legislature falls short on all three dimensions."

California voters could face at least two of the would-be reforms on the ballot in 2008. In February, voters will decide the fate of Proposition 93, which would change term limits in the state.

And a coalition of good-government groups, now with the backing of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, are aiming a redistricting measure for the November 2008 ballot.

Sal Rosselli, president of the 600,000-strong SEIU state council, is withdrawing his nomination to remain leader of one of California largest and most influential labor groups in the face of a vote he said “defies acceptable notions of fairness.”

Rosselli, president of a 100,000-strong local chapter of the Service Employees International Union, as well as the labor group’s statewide umbrella organization, has been locked in an internal union leadership battle with potential implications for the health care overhaul in California.

He informed the state council and national SEIU president Andy Stern – who allies of Rosselli accuse of engineering the leadership change – of his withdrawal in a letter on Sunday.

“I am writing to notify you and our colleagues in California that I will not accept any nomination to serve as President of the SEIU California State Council,” Rosselli wrote. “I do not want any contest for this office to serve as a point of contention among SEIU Locals in California or to hinder in any way our joint effort to win real healthcare reform now.”

The state council had scheduled a vote via telephone for Friday to consider replacing Rosselli, but not enough members of the 20-member council called in to establish a quorum.

Now, the council is set to vote via e-mail – as early as today – to select its next president.

With Rosselli’s withdrawal, the only remaining candidate for president is Annelle Grajeda, was appointed president of the recently formed Local 721 by Stern.

“That such a vote is slated to occur and conclude electronically on Monday, less than 24 hours before we are scheduled to meet face-to-face in San Diego on Tuesday, calls into question the integrity of the entire process. Consequently, we choose not to participate in such flawed proceedings,” Rosselli wrote to the state council. Rosselli’s union, United Healthcare Workers, also will not take part in the vote.

Reached via telephone Rosselli would not comment on the leadership change, saying only, “The state council thing is an internal matter.”

But he did talk about health care, which he also brought up in his letter.

He said via telephone that any health compromise must include a “definition of basic benefits people must receive at a price they can afford if they are to be subject to an individual mandate.”

In what amounted to a resignation letter (even if unhappily), Rosselli wrote to Stern, “Your actions concerning the State Council have created a major distraction from maintaining the unified focus needed to achieve our objectives.”

“Although the view may look different from Washington DC, here in California I believe we are close to achieving our goal of real health care reform as long as we have the courage to continue to stand up for our principles and advocate for the issues that are not successfully addressed in Governor Schwarzenegger’s health care proposal,” Rosselli wrote.

The state council declined to comment for this story. “We don’t talk about internal union matters,” said council spokeswoman Jeanine Meyer Rodriguez.

Read the full text of Rosselli's letter below:

Larry McCarthy, the long-time president of the California Taxpayers’ Association, died on Saturday in Sacramento from cancer, the organization announced today. He was 59.

McCarthy had worked at Cal-Tax since 1976, becoming president of the group in 1989.

“California’s taxpayers have lost a friend and ally,” said Cal-Tax Board of Directors Chair John Cmelak in a statement. “For more than 30 years, Larry provided an effective, articulate voice for lower taxes and greater government accountability, and he did so with unmatched integrity and grace. His voice has been silenced, but his legacy lives on. Larry’s friends and colleagues at Cal-Tax send our thoughts and prayers to his wife, Sandy, and his entire family as we mourn the loss of a truly great man.”

In 2006, he was diagnosed with an aggressive form of skin cancer and took a leave from his presidency at Cal-Tax, though the organization reports "he continued to work on behalf of taxpayers."

In mid-November, the California Taxpayers' Association organized an Irish-themed tribute to McCarthy. The group has already set up a Web site, compiling
"thoughts and memories" about McCarthy from those in the Capitol community.

Find the memorial site here.

This morning, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is set to make what's billed as a "major announcement" with backers of a redistricting initiative aimed for the November 2008 ballot.

Schwarzenegger has made an overhaul of redistricting -- the process in which the Legislature draws political district boundaries -- one of the aims of his governorship.

He supported Proposition 77, a redistricting measure that would have given the power to draw legislative districts to retired judges, during the 2005 special election, but that measure was defeated by voters.

The latest proposal is headed by California Common Cause, AARP and the League of Women Voters, among others.

While one of the most overused axioms in California politics is that the "devil is in the details," the platitude is particularly true for redistricting.

The most notable feature of the California Voters First proposal is that the plan does not include congressional seats, a provision which House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has opposed.

Proponents of the measure offer a summary of who would draw district lines here.

The process begins with the state auditor, who would select a three-person Applicant Review Panel, made up of three other auditors (one Democrat, one Republican, one independent). That three-auditor panel would select 60 of the "most qualified applicants" (20 D, 20 R, 20 independents).

Each of the four legislative leaders could strike up to 2 applicants from each of the 20-person pools.

The first eight commissioners (3 D, 3 R, 2 I) among those remaining are chosen at random. That group of eight then selects the final six (2 D, 2 R, 2 I) to "to complement the balance of skills and diversity."

Then there's the laundry list of things potential district drawers can't be (such as relatives of lawmakers, currently elected officials, or candidates for elected office in the last decade).

The effort to qualify the redistricting measure for the ballot has spent about $250,000 and is currently $100,000 in debt.

The governor will make his announcement regarding the measure at 11:30 a.m. on the east steps of the Capitol.