California Insider

A Weblog by
Sacramento Bee Columnist Daniel Weintraub

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April 28, 2003

Is it bad, or really, really bad?

The green eyeshades among you may have noticed that the San Francisco Chronicle and I have reported dramatically different assessments of the income tax receipts rolling into the state treasury this month. I said in this space Friday that April collections looked as if they’d fall short of projections by maybe $500 million—not great but not the end of the world. The Chronicle reported in Sunday’s editions a far more alarming prospect, projecting that the state was running $3 billion short of expectations this month alone. This stuff can be tricky, but my sources at the legislative analyst’s office suggest I am correct and that the Chron might have miscalculated. One hint: The $7.5 billion the Chronicle said the state was expecting for the month includes money withheld from paychecks, but the $4.3 billion the paper reported the state collected through April 25 does not. And payments from withholding, unlike from tax returns, are running just about on target at $2 billion. As for the take from tax returns alone, my latest figures show that the state received $4.3 billion through Friday, with the possibility of another $300 million or $400 million in the pipeline. The projection for the month was $5.5 billion.