California Insider

A Weblog by
Sacramento Bee Columnist Daniel Weintraub

Back to California Insider home page

« See me, hear me... | | Depends on what your definition of 'true' is »

July 09, 2003

Is Arnold misunderestimated?

I could be horribly wrong about this, but I have a nagging feeling that California’s political class is underestimating Arnold Schwarzenegger’s potential as a candidate. Inside the Capitol and in conversations with consultants from both parties, I keep hearing about all of Arnold’s flaws: lack of experience, hint of Hollywood scandal, the widespread perception that he’s no more than an ambitious celebrity. His films glorifying violence are a turnoff to soccer moms; his support for gay rights will alienate conservatives. And so on. But my sense is that if Arnold runs, his presence on the campaign battlefield would completely change the state’s existing political dynamic in ways that make today's rules obsolete. And that change would help, not hurt Arnold. His name on the ballot would bring national and international attention to the campaign, and would by itself motivate thousands, perhaps hundreds of thousands of Californians to pay attention to politics and vote, many for the first time. The focus on Arnold would completely overwhelm the attempts of the other candidates to get their messages out. And while he would start with a huge advantage from his celebrity alone, I think his stock would rise, not fall, over the course of a campaign. The reason: the element of pleasant surprise. Today, when most people hear his name, they think movie star. That’s enough to create the initial excitement. But in a campaign, that buzz would be only the beginning. Voters would first be reminded of his sponsorship of last year’s successful Proposition 49, which boosted funding for after-school programs for kids. Then they’d hear about his private work for after-school programs that preceded the initiative. From there it would be a natural segue to his broader commitment to inner city youth through his charitable work. And finally would come information about his growing business empire. He might even, God forbid, enunciate a vision for the future of the state. All of this would have the effect of getting people to stop and say, oh, he’s more than a movie star. He’s a man of some depth and substance and guts. And on that score he would begin to compare quite favorably with some of the other people running, or already holding office. Consultants can dream all they want about allegations of womanizing or film of him smoking a marijuana joint 30 years ago. But those things are not going to knock Arnold off track, unless he completely crumbles under the pressure. And I'm thinking that this is a guy who knows how to perform under the hot lights. Bottom line: If he runs, he wins.