California Insider

A Weblog by
Sacramento Bee Columnist Daniel Weintraub

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July 28, 2003

Back to the trenches

Things are changing by the minute, and will continue to do so. But as of this morning, Gray Davis has the momentum in his fight to beat the recall. One house of the Legislature has passed a budget, and the other will probably do so soon. The public will see this as progress, even if the toughest part of the job was left for the future. The recall is being portrayed in the media as a circus or a zoo, take your pick. It looks as if Arnold is out, and with him the recall's best chance of energizing independents and occasional voters. Riordan still isn’t in and might never be. That leaves the most likely Republican candidates as Issa, who has been and will be easy to demonize; Simon, who will be portrayed as either the sore loser or the “I told you so” candidate; and McClintock, the sincere but under-funded state senator who will want to talk about fiscal reform but will be marginalized by his conservative take on social issues. Assemblyman Keith Richman will run as the Republican moderate if both Arnold and Riordan bow out, but he is little known statewide and will have a hard time breaking out of a crowded field. Gray will ignore Richman and wrap the other three neatly with a bow and say the whole thing is a “vast right-wing conspiracy.” The entire political establishment is against it and, even if they don’t help Gray, they won’t be of much help to his opponents. The New York Times has started a full-court press against the recall on the editorial and op-ed pages, following the lead of the home-state LA Times. Even former Gov. Pete Wilson was quoted in the Bee this morning saying he hates the recall. Bottom line: It’s starting to look as if the recall drive is back to where it started: a guerrilla war. It might be well financed by Issa and a handful of others, but remember, Issa is himself an outsider. If this thing wins, it is going to be on the strength of a populist revolt, not celebrity star power.