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Sacramento Bee Columnist Daniel Weintraub

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August 06, 2003

The fun begins

The campaign to recall Gray Davis began to take shape Wednesday as U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein announced she is out and actor Arnold Schwarzenegger and commentator Arianna Huffington said they would run. Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, meanwhile, met with political advisers to try to decide whether he should abide by a Democratic pact to stand behind Gov. Gray Davis, or break free and launch a run for the top job himself.

I have said before that I thought if Schwarzenegger ran he would win. While I made that comment with the assumption that top Democrats were telling the truth about not running to replace Davis, I haven’t seen anything today that would change my sense of the race. I still think Arnold is the man to beat.

His decision to announce on Leno perturbed a lot of the usual commentators, but I had no problem with it. His task is to communicate with as many people possible as quickly as possible. That was the best way to do it. (He could have gone without the bikini wax line, however.) More impressive was his first press conference as a candidate, when he vowed to go to Sacramento and “clean house.”

Schwarzenegger quickly displayed the cross-party appeal that will make him formidable. He talked about his coming to America as an immigrant and achieving his dreams. He talked about providing opportunity for all. He talked about leadership. And he talked about something that too few Sacramento politicians seem to realize: you can’t have any government programs unless you first have employers and good jobs, people who are earning money and paying taxes.

“The most important thing is that we bring business back in California,” he said. “More businesses are leaving California than ever before. When business comes back, revenue comes back. When revenues come back, we can afford all kinds of programs that are very important.”

Schwarzenegger also tried to use his personal wealth as a political advantage, contrasting himself with those who must pander to interest groups in order to raise money for their campaigns.

“I don’t need to take money from anybody,” he said. “I have plenty of money myself. I will make decisions for the people.”

This was the easy part, of course, announcing his candidacy in a fairly controlled environment. Now he gets to start answering the fun questions. Will you raise taxes? If not, how will you balance the budget? What do you think of the Colorado River deal? Do you support civil unions for gays? How would you reform workers compensation? Exactly what would you do to lure business back to the state?

He is not going to answer all of these questions. And most voters won’t expect him to. But how he handles them will shape how seriously he is treated as a candidate.

Democratic consultant Darry Sragow said tonight that Arnold's opener was great, but people aren't looking for inspiration, they're looking for someone who can manage the state through tough times. I don't think so. I think Gray Davis is a daily reminder of what can happen when someone with "experience money can't buy," or the "best-trained governor" in waiting the state has ever produced takes office. It's not about management. It's about engagement. It's about leadership and relationships, with others in the political process, and with voters.

Arnold has the potential to bring hundreds of thousands of voters to the polls who otherwise would not have participated in this election. While he is running as a Republican, I think he will get most of the independent vote and virtually all of the moderate Republican vote while making serious inroads among Democrats, even if a well known Democrat runs. He will leave perhaps 30 to 40 percent of the Republican vote, the core conservatives, to be split among whatever combination of Issa, Simon and McClintock remain in the race.

Arianna Huffington is running as an independent in a loose alliance with Green Party candidate Peter Camejo, with some hope of combining their support for Arianna at some point. It remains to be seen if that will work. It seems flaky to me. Huffington has a saleable message. She may have money behind her. But I think Arnold just takes all the air out of her campaign. He is the millionaire populist in this race, not her. He is the real celebrity, not her. He is the one who people will think can smash the special interests, not her. I think she remains an interesting but marginalized candidate.

On the Democratic side? Rumors persist that Cruz Bustamante and Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi might still jump in. Bustamante could be formidable. If he is able to raise a few bucks and benefit from some independent expenditures from political action committees, he could make a run at it. He will get some attention as potentially the first Hispanic governor in the modern history of the state. And he will get a bump from being lieutenant governor, which, as Gray Davis showed, is a title voters think means something.

Gray who? Oh yeah. He is still the governor, after all. Now that his vast right-wing conspiracy is being swallowed whole inside a mutli-partisan populist revolt, his best chance is to declare the thing a circus and hope voters trek to the polls to express their dissatisfaction. That or hope people feel sorry for him because so many candidates are picking on him. Or, finally, that people will be upset that someone might become governor with a smaller plurality than he won a year ago. None of these strategies seem very promising to me. Gray, in fact, risks everyone almost forgetting about him in their rush to evaluate the challengers. Don’t count him out. He has risen from the dead before. But if he does it this time it will truly be a miracle.

And to those still wringing their hands about the effect all of this has on the “political process,” I have this to say. Tonight and Thursday, more people will be talking and thinking about California politics and government than ever before. And from the looks of it, those people will have more viable choices in an election for governor than ever before. Commentators have been complaining about the lack of civic engagement and the lack of decent choices for a long time. Now we have engagement, and we have choices. Relax. Enjoy it.