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Sacramento Bee Columnist Daniel Weintraub

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August 22, 2003

Times Poll finds recall lead narrowing

A new LA Times poll says the recall is nearly a dead heat, with 50 percent in favor and 45 percent opposed. The Times finds that the race is turning more partisan, with Democrats overwhelmingly opposed and Republicans in favor. But Republicans, the poll finds, are more energized and thus more likely to vote. Here is the link, which requires registration, and here is an excerpt from the story:

California voters are closely divided on whether to recall Gov. Gray Davis, and they are concerned about how the election will come off and its lasting impact on the state, according to a new Los Angeles Times poll.

The survey, which ended Thursday night, finds a state nearly cleaved in half by partisan divisions. Democrats are overwhelmingly negative in their assessments of the recall, while Republicans view the Oct. 7 vote in generally positive terms.

But in a danger sign for Davis, Republicans appear much more energized by the off-year election, meaning they are more likely to vote. At the same time, the governor has the support of just three in four of his fellow Democrats.

Overall, 50% of likely voters said they supported the effort to turn Davis out of office, while 45% were opposed. Most said their minds were firmly made up: just 4% of those surveyed said were still deciding how to vote.

Still, a great deal of volatility surrounds the election, which is unprecedented in California and marks just the second time in the nation's history that voters have considered recalling a governor in midterm. The size of the turnout will be decisive - and given the unique nature of the race it is difficult to project exactly who will go to the polls in just over six weeks.