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Sacramento Bee Columnist Daniel Weintraub

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August 23, 2003

Times poll shows big lead for Cruz

The LA Times Poll on the recall replacement election shows Bustamante leading Schwarzenegger 35-22, with McClintock in third place at 12 percent. The poll's result is dramatically different from the Public Policy Institute poll released last week, which showed Schwarzenegger leading 23-18, and the Field Poll done earlier, which had Bustamante and Schwarzenegger in a statistical tie. It does make sense that Democrats would begin to coalesce around Cruz. That was expected all along. But Arnold's inability to attract more Democrat and independent votes is a bit of a surprise. I have no opinion on whether this poll or one of the others is more accurate. It's probably worth noting that the surveys for this poll coincided with the flap over Arnold's position on Prop. 13 and ended just as he was rolling out his first television ad and holding a well publicized meeting with his economic advisers. Arnold's campaign says their tracking polls have the race a dead heat. But as I have said from the beginning, I have a feeling the polls are going to be erratic from start to finish in this race. Get used to it. Here is the Times story on the poll. Registration required.