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Sacramento Bee Columnist Daniel Weintraub

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August 25, 2003

New poll shows Cruz with 8-point lead

I am told that a private Democratic Party poll completed over the weekend shows the recall holding steady among likely voters with a 54-41 edge while Bustamante’s lead over Arnold is growing but not quite as large as the LA Times poll showed Sunday. The survey shows Bustamante with a 33-25 edge (compared to 35-23 in The Times), with state Sen. Tom McClintock at 11. Support for the recall among Democrats in this poll has declined from 30 percent in mid-August to 26 percent. It was 15 percent in The Times poll. Interestingly enough, this poll actually shows Arnold’s image rating improving, even as his standing in the horserace slips. He started the race with a 39-39 favorable to unfavorable rating, increased to 43-36 and now stands at 44-37, according to the poll. The difference is coming from Democrats, who seem to be warming to Arnold as a person even if they still don’t think he’d make a good governor. The poll forecasts a 55 percent turnout, which would be about 5 percent greater than last November.

UPDATE: The most recent Republican poll, conducted by Gary Lawrence Research and ending Aug. 18, showed the recall ahead 63-35, with Schwarzenegger ahead of Cruz after Simon's votes are distributed to the second choice of his voters.

Take all polls, but especially partisan polls, with a grain of salt.