California Insider

Everybody knows that candidates who are leading in the polls don't challenge their opponents to debate. So Gray's challenge to Arnold is a tip-off: the gov's momentum has slowed and he is in trouble, just a week and a weekend before the election. How much trouble?

My sources tell me that two Democratic polls, including one by the California Teachers Assn., show the recall leading 54-40 and 54-41. That's a lot of ground to make-up, even if you subscribe to the wisdom that Davis needs only to shave the 54 down to 49.9, which is true but makes the task seem somewhat easier than it is.

The race to replace in one of the Democratic polls is even between Cruz and Arnold at 30-29, with McClintock at 18. The CTA poll, I am told, has Arnold opening up a five-point lead at 31-26, with McClintock at 15. Still a ton of undecided voters out there.