California Insider

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Sacramento Bee Columnist Daniel Weintraub

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September 29, 2003

More on CNN/USA Today poll

Here is a link to the USA Today chart on the CNN/USA Today Poll. It shows the 63-35 margin for the recall among "probable voters," which seems to be their word for what others call "likely" voters. Among all registered voters in this poll, the recall leads by a 55-41 margin. There remains some confusion about turnout assumptions. CNN reproted that the poll assumed a 51 percent turnout of eligible voters, which equates to about 70 percent of registered voters. This report from USA Today simply says that the sample of "probable voters" assumes a "51 percent turnout." It doesn't specify whether that is of registered voters or eligible voters. The distinction is very important.

UPDATE: Here are some more clues buried in footnotes spread among the poll charts. The poll appears to be based on 369 Democrats and Democrat/leaners and 356 Republican/Republican leaners out of a sample of 787 registered voters. I don't know what a "leaner" is when you are asking people how they are registered, but leaving that aside, this would mean the sample is 47 percent Democrat and 45 percent Republican. That's more of each group, and far fewer independents, than you normally see in a California poll sample. Beyond that, the poll charts note that there were 286 Republicans considered "most probable to vote." If that is out of the same subset of 581 "probable voters" listed at the bottom of the chart, Republicans as a share of the probable vote would be 49 percent. That's not impossible, if Republicans are supercharged to vote and Dems stay home, but it would certainly explain the huge margin for the recall that the poll found among "probable voters."