California Insider

A Weblog by
Sacramento Bee Columnist Daniel Weintraub

Back to California Insider home page

« But will they vote this time? | | Beware the Q2 Skippers »

October 06, 2003

Behind the numbers

The Schwarzenegger campaign was circulating poll numbers Sunday from the California Correctional Peace Officers Association that showed the recall still winning big and Arnold far ahead in the replacement race. According to the campaign, the recall was leading 57-37 in the last four nights of the tracking poll, from Wednesday through Saturday. Schwarzenegger was leading the replacement race with 36 percent, followed by Bustamante at 21 and McClintock at 17.

But those numbers didn't tell the whole story. A source outside the campaign who is familiar with that poll tells me that the daily splits are more revealing. According to this source, support for the recall slipped each night, from 63-30 on Wednesday to 54-41 on Saturday. In the replacement race, meanwhile, the shake-up was less dramatic. On that question, Schwarzenegger began the period up 32-19 over Bustamante and ended it up 39-26. McClintock is pretty much remaining flat in the mid to high teens.

Remember, nightly tracking with small samples is dangerous on Friday and Saturday nights. But it looks like the trend some spotted in the Knight-Ridder/NBC poll is also evident here. The question is whether that slide on the recall issue has ended or continues through Tuesday's election.