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Sacramento Bee Columnist Daniel Weintraub

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June 21, 2005

How low can he go?

The Field Poll out this morning shows Schwarzenegger's public approval cratering, down to 37 percent among registered voters (53 percent disapprove); among all adults, 31 percent approve of his performance. In February, his rating was 55-35 positive among voters. It peaked last summer at 65-22.

Among Democrats, Schwarzenegger's rating is 16-76. Among Republicans it is 66-23 (down from a high of 90-5) and among non-partisans and minor party members his rating is 35-54.

Any way you look at it, this is a disastrous way to start a special election campaign that is going to be a referendum on his leadership.

One ray of hope for Schwarzenegger in the Field Poll release is the note that former Gov. Gray Davis, just before he was reelected in 2002, had a job performance rating of just 39-49 and still managed to win. But Davis had the advantage of running against a weak Republican opponent. Schwarzenegger, when his agenda faces voters this fall, will not have an opponent to run against. It's all him.

And what about that plan to make the special a contest between Schwarzenegger and the always unpopular Legislature?

Well, in a vacuum, the Legislature's approval rating is even lower than the governor's, at 24-57. But when asked with whom they would side in a disagreement between the governor and legislative leaders, voters pick the Legislature. 44-33. In January 2004, Schwarzenegger was the favorite on that question, 48-30.

The full poll should be here later this morning.