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Sacramento Bee Columnist Daniel Weintraub

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June 22, 2005

Gov's measures get mixed poll review

Today's Field Poll is on the three ballot initiatives that the governor has so far endorsed: a budget reform, an independent commission for redistricting, and changes to the way teachers are hired and fired.

The news is mixed for Schwarzenegger. Teacher tenure is ahead by a wide margin. His budget reform and the redistricting initiative are losing badly.
Among likely voters, here are the numbers:

Tenure 61-32
Budget 35-42
Remap 35-46

Field also asked people if they had heard of the initiatives before being read the ballot summary. It is interesting to look at what happens when that is factored in.

Tenure
Heard of it 60-37
Not heard 64-25

Budget
heard of it 36-49
not heard 31-27

Redistricting
heard of it 47-43
Not heard 17-50

That last number is startling, and consistently shows up in polls about redistricting. People who have heard of the issue and understand it tend to support reform. The less people know about it, the less they like the idea of taking the power from the Legislature and giving it to a commission.

On the budget measure, the reverse is true. I suspect this is because most people who have heard about it have heard that it would change Prop. 98 and potentially reduce the long-term growth in education spending.

Large numbers of voters, apparently, are up for changing teacher hiring rules whether they have heard of the idea or not.

The full poll, with breakdowns by region and party, should be here later this morning.