Politics being what they are, as soon as one election campaign ends, another begins – witness the speculation over which Republicans will run for president in 2012.
Closer to home, would-be governors of California are busily positioning themselves in anticipation of 2010, when Arnold Schwarzenegger's roller-coaster political sojourn ends, or at least enters a new phase.
Why anyone would want to be governor of an arguably ungovernable state – witness Schwarzenegger's experience – is unfathomable. Why anyone would particularly seek the office two years hence is even more puzzling, since it's likely that the political and economic conditions that have largely thwarted Schwarzenegger will be even more daunting.
This recession could become the worst California has seen since the Great Depression, succeeding the 1990-95 downturn for that dubious title. The state faces horrendous budget deficits averaging more than $20 billion a year for the next five years, the Legislature's budget analyst says, unless spending is curbed and taxes are raised sharply.
A gubernatorial aspirant might assume that the problem is so big that surely Schwarzenegger and the Legislature will resolve it by 2010. However, the more likely scenario is they will adopt short-term strategies to get them through the next couple of years – that's roughly Schwarzenegger's approach – and leave the next governor with a very big mess.
Nevertheless, at least nine men and women may aspire to the governorship and the right to preside over whatever happens. A new Field Poll provides a baseline on which to handicap intra- and interparty contests.
U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein could probably have the governorship for the asking, the Field Poll indicates, but she enjoys new power in a Democrat-dominated national government and will be 77 years old in 2010. Without her in the picture – and she's playing it very coy – Attorney General Jerry Brown, a former two-term governor, appears to hold the strongest hand among Democrats, even though he's viewed favorably by less than half of them.
Trailing behind are Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, who must win re-election next year; Lt. Gov. John Garamendi, a perpetual aspirant; San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, whose overall approval rating is just 25 percent and whose advocacy of gay marriage has made him a lightning rod; and Jack O'Connell, the affable but little-known state schools superintendent.
The three Republicans who want to run, however, are even less visible to the public, with Field finding that roughly three-quarters of voters have no opinion about them. They are Steve Poizner, a Silicon Valley billionaire and state insurance commissioner; former U.S. Rep. Tom Campbell; and Meg Whitman, the very wealthy former head of eBay, the online auction house.
Perhaps all of them should undergo mental evaluation for even thinking about governing California.
Call The Bee's Dan Walters, (916) 321-1195. Back columns, www.sacbee.com/walters.
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