The Legislature reconvened Monday with a couple of dozen truly new members – not counting the retreads and those shifting from one house to the other – and launched its biennial session with the usual celebratory rituals.
The question on everyone's minds, however, was whether the reconstituted Legislature, with Democrats adding to their majority in the Assembly, will be any more successful than its predecessors in resolving the Capitol's seemingly perpetual stalemate on the state budget.
The answer is a big fat "maybe." Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger had called last month's lame-duck session in hopes that he could persuade a few termed-out Republicans to crack their party's blockade on new taxes, perhaps by dangling post-legislative appointments before their soon-to-be-unemployed eyes.
It didn't happen, but the governor and legislative leaders did appear to come tantalizingly close to a budget deal involving both new taxes – cleverly chosen to be labeled as "fees" or some other politically acceptable euphemism – as well as some substantial spending cuts. They didn't quite make it, however, because Republicans were still antsy and Democrats balked at their demands, backed by Schwarzenegger, for some politically incendiary changes in labor and environmental laws sought by business, as well as a spending-limit ballot measure.
Those differences remain as Schwarzenegger calls a new special legislative session devoted to the budget crisis and a projection that the state will run out of money in about three months.
Schwarzenegger renewed his call for changes in labor and environmental laws, while urging the public to pressure the Legislature "not to waste any more time" in enacting billions of dollars in both new taxes and spending cuts. Darrell Steinberg, the newly elevated president pro tem of the state Senate, called them "not good ideas," but he and Assembly Speaker Karen Bass refused to say whether they'd give in, risking the wrath of labor unions and environmental groups, if Republicans insisted on them as the price of making a budget deal.
So why is the new Legislature a "maybe" on coming to grips with the crisis? It's because Democrats increased their majority in the Assembly by three seats to 51, leaving only three Republican votes needed to pass a budget package.
Conceivably, Assembly GOP leader Mike Villines – who has emerged as the pivotal figure in the situation – could cut a deal with Schwarzenegger and Democrats to provide only his vote and those of two other GOP leaders, thus leaving every other Republican free to vote against it or abstain. And if a deal was approved in the Assembly, the Senate would almost certainly follow.
Such a deal, however, might also require virtually every Democrat to vote for labor and environmental changes that some of the party's biggest supporters despise, such as altering the eight-hour working day. So the real question remains: Who will blink first?
Call The Bee's Dan Walters, (916) 321-1195. Back columns, www.sacbee.com/walters.
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