Sacramento Bee Logo

Gulf's loop current unlikely to send oil spill to Florida and beyond | The Sacramento Bee

×
  • E-edition
    • Customer Service
    • SacBee Rewards
    • About Us
    • About Us
    • Contact Us
    • Apps
    • Mobile & Apps
    • Twitter, Facebook, Google+, YouTube
    • News in Education (NIE)
  • Newsletters

    • Sacramento Region
    • Arena
    • City Beat
    • Crime
    • Local Govt Salary Database
    • The Homeless
    • Marcos Bretón
    • Transportation
    • Education
    • Environment
    • Health & Medicine
    • Traffic Conditions
    • Weather
    • Communities
    • Elk Grove
    • Folsom/El Dorado
    • Roseville/Placer
    • Yolo
    • Sports
    • Kings
    • NBA News
    • 49ers
    • Giants
    • Oakland A's
    • High School Sports
    • Joe Davidson
    • More Sports
    • Raiders
    • NFL News
    • MLB News
    • River Cats
    • Soccer
    • Colleges
    • Golf
    • Autos Racing
    • Politics
    • Capitol Alert
    • State Workers
    • The California Influencer Series
    • Local Elections
    • PoliGRAPH
    • State Worker Salary Database
    • Legislative Gifts
    • Local Elections
    • California Elections
    • Election Endorsements
    • Election 2018
    • Voter Guide
    • Investigations
    • Data Tracker
    • Public Eye
    • Afghan Refugees
    • Nursing Homes
    • Opinion
    • Editorials
    • Election Endorsements
    • Viewpoints
    • Influencers Opinion
    • California Forum
    • Letters to the Editor
    • Submit a Letter
    • Jack Ohman
    • Editorial Board
    • Entertainment & Life
    • Arts & Theater
    • Books
    • Home & Garden
    • Movies
    • Music
    • Outdoors
    • Pets
    • Travel
    • More Entertainment
    • Events Calendar
    • Horoscopes
    • Comics
    • Puzzles
    • TV Listings
    • Sacbee Rewards
    • Food & Drink
    • Restaurants News & Reviews
    • Restaurant Directory
    • Cooking & Recipes
    • Beer
    • Wine
    • Appetizers Blog
    • California
    • Big Valley
    • Marijuana
    • Wildfires
    • Water & Drought
    • Lottery
    • Business
    • Real Estate
    • Market Summary
    • Cathie Anderson
    • Nation & World
    • National
    • World
    • Technology
    • Family
    • Celebrities
    • TV news
    • Weird News
    • Video Break
    • News Obituaries
    • Death Notices
    • FAQ
    • ObitMessenger
    • In Memoriam

    • The Sacramento Bee Store
    • Golf Card
    • Farm to Fork Dining Card
  • Jobs
  • Moonlighting
  • Cars
  • Homes
  • Classifieds
  • Legal Notices
  • Place an Ad
  • Advertise
  • Mobile & Apps

Latest News

Gulf's loop current unlikely to send oil spill to Florida and beyond

Curtis Morgan - Miami Herald

    ORDER REPRINT →

May 27, 2010 08:00 PM

MIAMI — A dramatic change in the Gulf of Mexico's loop current has trapped a slick of oil in a huge circular eddy that scientists said Thursday appears likely to push slowly west instead of pumping the oil south into the Florida Keys and possibly up the East Coast of the United States.

The shift, which oceanographers have been watching strengthen for a week, has at the least reduced the imminent environmental threat for Florida. Tar balls predicted to be floating in the Florida Straits by now instead might not arrive for weeks, months or — depending on lots of variables — maybe at all.

"I don't think there is an express lane here any more," said Nick Shay, a physical oceanographer at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.

But he and other scientists caution they are still struggling to assess another unseen but potentially catastrophic threat — plumes of submerged oil from the April 20 deep sea blowout that the federal government finally confirmed has become the nation's largest oil spill.

Sign Up and Save

Get six months of free digital access to The Sacramento Bee

SUBSCRIBE WITH GOOGLE

#ReadLocal

A team of scientists assembled by the federal government calculated the flow at two to five times the rate estimated by BP — meaning from 18 to nearly 40 million gallons of crude have already spewed into the Gulf. That's roughly two to four times the 11 million gallons the Exxon Valdez dumped in Alaska in 1989.

There is mounting evidence a considerable amount remains below the surface.

How much is there and where it is going is both a major concern and mystery, said Frank Muller-Karger, biological oceanographer at the University of South Florida.

"We need to know what is down below," said Muller-Karger. "We have no handle on that at all."

A team from a USF research vessel reported Thursday that it had mapped a massive undersea plume of hydrocarbons, a strong indicator of oil — stretching 22 miles north of the well, six miles wide and starting just below the surface down to 3,300 feet, with the heaviest concentrations at 1,300 feet.

It was the second deep-sea cloud discovered by researchers surveying the spill. Samantha Joye, a University of Georgia marine scientist leading a team that first discovered large underwater plumes two weeks ago, also reported Thursday on her shipboard blog that a second voyage had found a plume moving north at 2,500 to nearly 4,000 feet.

And Shay, who is partnering with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on reconnaissance flights, believes instruments he's dropping to record ocean temperature and salinity have pinpointed yet more plumes drifting from 160 to nearly 500 feet deep.

If preliminary readings are verified, impacts from the spill could rise exponentially — potentially contaminating marine life from the deep sea floor to the shoreline. Submerged oil could wreak havoc on deep ocean creatures, from filter feeders like whales to plankton and larvae near the surface.

"The first ecological impact of this spill is the effect on coastal habitats, including marshes, beaches and estuaries. The second threat to nature would be the impact on the food webs," David Hollander, a chemical oceanographer who was lead investigator for the USF voyage, said in a release. "That is what's at risk."

Scientists believe temperature and salinity gradients could be trapping the oil as well as other possible factors, including the deep sea application of chemical dispersants, which break the oil into clouds of tiny droplets so diffused they might rise very slowly or even remain trapped by layers of warmer, heavier water overhead.

Shay speculated that plumes might take months to surface, if they surface at all.

"It doesn't surprise me we haven't seen any of these blobs pop to the surface in the loop current," he said.

Tracking and estimating the size of sub-sea plumes pose huge technical challenges. Unlike surface slicks, there is no satellite image to track and Coast Guard studies as recent as last year call the technology to assess submerged oil inadequate.

The uncertainty of where the oil might be going adds to the concern. The USF surveys suggest oil is moving north up the Continental Shelf toward Louisiana. But Shay's readings came south of the spill site, raising concerns that unseen oil could still make its way toward the Florida coast.

For now, what oceanographers can clearly track is the change in the loop current, a warm water pipeline constantly reshaping itself. Two weeks ago, Muller-Karger said, it looked much like a horseshoe, digging far into the Northern Gulf near the spill.

But over the last two weeks, a counter-clockwise eddy on the outside of the loop began pushing east may force the current into a circular pattern oceanographers call a "warm core eddy."

"In oceanography, that is not a new phenomenon," Muller-Karger said. "The horseshoe closes up on itself and you have this big ring of water the size of Florida."

That ring, now about 100 miles west of Tampa, typically will drift west — bad news for Texas and Mexico but a good development for the Florida Keys. The remaining loop current typically flattens out, flowing east across the Yucatan Channel to the Florida Straits — hundreds of miles south of the spill — before moving up the East Coast.

It's possibly the formation can change, scientists say, and eddies can reattach but the process can take weeks or months, essentially confining the surface slick already drawn into the loop in the mid-Gulf for the near future.

Scientists say it is much harder to predict what might happen to submerged oil if it moves south. It's possible, for instance, that seasonal upwelling of cold water in the summer could push it out below the eddy and loop current onto the shallow Continental Shelf west of Florida, Muller-Karger said.

If that happened, winds and weather would take over.

"After it's on the shelf, it can affect anywhere along the coast," he said.

Related stories from Sacramento Bee

latest-news

Runaway gulf oil well spewing far more oil than initially thought

May 27, 2010 06:33 PM

latest-news

Offshore moratorium won't affect Gulf wells already producing oil

May 27, 2010 06:08 PM

latest-news

Obama on the Gulf oil spill: 'My job is to get this fixed'

May 27, 2010 04:31 PM

latest-news

Rig's manager says BP tried to skip test, changed drilling plan

May 27, 2010 04:22 PM

latest-news

Transcript of President Obama's oil spill remarks and news conference

May 27, 2010 02:38 PM

latest-news

Chief drill regulator Birnbaum sacked, as feds increase estimate of spill

May 27, 2010 08:35 AM

  Comments  

Videos

Story of Amador County deputy digging through snow to rescue woman stranded in freezing house

What kind of house does a $180 million lottery winner build? This one. Now yours for $26 million

View More Video

Trending Stories

Raiders mock drafts: Focus remains on defense, except for one ‘electric’ prospect

February 17, 2019 10:50 AM

49ers mock drafts: Still between two at No. 2, but one candidate is edging the other

February 17, 2019 10:48 AM

Authorities remove cougar from tree outside California home

February 17, 2019 12:56 PM

What the NBA did to bid a fond farewell to Wade and Nowitzki at All-Star Game

February 17, 2019 09:34 PM

Did Colin Kaepernick beat the NFL? Some feel that’s the case, others aren’t so sure

February 17, 2019 11:45 AM

Read Next

Backyards buzz as beehives catch on in Sacramento, but don’t expect easy honey

Food & Drink

Backyards buzz as beehives catch on in Sacramento, but don’t expect easy honey

By Ashiah Scharaga Special to The Bee

    ORDER REPRINT →

February 18, 2019 12:15 PM

Backyard beekeeping can be pretty sweet, but it requires plenty of worrying and work to take care of a colony. Get tips on how to take care of your bees from the Sacramento Area Beekeepers Association.

KEEP READING

Sign Up and Save

#ReadLocal

Get six months of free digital access to The Sacramento Bee

SUBSCRIBE WITH GOOGLE

MORE LATEST NEWS

Familiar softball team opens at No. 1 again, but there’s a new top school in baseball

High School Sports

Familiar softball team opens at No. 1 again, but there’s a new top school in baseball

February 18, 2019 03:52 PM
Roads open as wet weather leaves Northern California

Transportation

Roads open as wet weather leaves Northern California

February 18, 2019 02:31 PM

Real Estate News

This California mansion and buffalo farm owned by $180 million lottery winner is now for sale

February 18, 2019 01:02 PM
Sacramento area girls take aim at becoming first female Eagle Scouts

Local

Sacramento area girls take aim at becoming first female Eagle Scouts

February 18, 2019 12:59 PM
Hiker trapped by quicksand in Zion Park. It was a ‘frigid’ overnight rescue, rangers say

National

Hiker trapped by quicksand in Zion Park. It was a ‘frigid’ overnight rescue, rangers say

February 18, 2019 12:47 PM
Three to See: ‘Music for Natalie’ tribute to Officer Natalie Corona

Music News & Reviews

Three to See: ‘Music for Natalie’ tribute to Officer Natalie Corona

February 18, 2019 11:39 AM
Take Us With You

Real-time updates and all local stories you want right in the palm of your hand.

Icon for mobile apps

The Sacramento Bee App

View Newsletters

Subscriptions
  • Start a Subscription
  • Customer Service
  • eEdition
  • Vacation Hold
  • Pay Your Bill
  • Rewards
Learn More
  • About Us
  • Contact Us
  • Newsletters
  • News in Education
  • Photo Store
Advertising
  • Place a Classified Ad
  • Place a Legal Notice
  • Place a Digital Ad
  • Place a Newspaper Ad
Copyright
Commenting Policy
Corrections Policy
Privacy Policy
Terms of Service


Back to Story