Sacramento Bee Logo

Pakistan faces new test of democracy with selection of army boss | The Sacramento Bee

×
  • E-edition
    • Customer Service
    • SacBee Rewards
    • About Us
    • About Us
    • Contact Us
    • Apps
    • Mobile & Apps
    • Twitter, Facebook, Google+, YouTube
    • News in Education (NIE)
  • Newsletters

    • Sacramento Region
    • Arena
    • City Beat
    • Crime
    • Local Govt Salary Database
    • The Homeless
    • Marcos Bretón
    • Transportation
    • Education
    • Environment
    • Health & Medicine
    • Traffic Conditions
    • Weather
    • Communities
    • Elk Grove
    • Folsom/El Dorado
    • Roseville/Placer
    • Yolo
    • Sports
    • Kings
    • NBA News
    • 49ers
    • Giants
    • Oakland A's
    • High School Sports
    • Joe Davidson
    • More Sports
    • Raiders
    • NFL News
    • MLB News
    • River Cats
    • Soccer
    • Colleges
    • Golf
    • Autos Racing
    • Politics
    • Capitol Alert
    • State Workers
    • The California Influencer Series
    • Local Elections
    • PoliGRAPH
    • State Worker Salary Database
    • Legislative Gifts
    • Local Elections
    • California Elections
    • Election Endorsements
    • Election 2018
    • Voter Guide
    • Investigations
    • Data Tracker
    • Public Eye
    • Afghan Refugees
    • Nursing Homes
    • Opinion
    • Editorials
    • Election Endorsements
    • Viewpoints
    • Influencers Opinion
    • California Forum
    • Letters to the Editor
    • Submit a Letter
    • Jack Ohman
    • Editorial Board
    • Entertainment & Life
    • Arts & Theater
    • Books
    • Home & Garden
    • Movies
    • Music
    • Outdoors
    • Pets
    • Travel
    • More Entertainment
    • Events Calendar
    • Horoscopes
    • Comics
    • Puzzles
    • TV Listings
    • Sacbee Rewards
    • Food & Drink
    • Restaurants News & Reviews
    • Restaurant Directory
    • Cooking & Recipes
    • Beer
    • Wine
    • Appetizers Blog
    • California
    • Big Valley
    • Marijuana
    • Wildfires
    • Water & Drought
    • Lottery
    • Business
    • Real Estate
    • Market Summary
    • Cathie Anderson
    • Nation & World
    • National
    • World
    • Technology
    • Family
    • Celebrities
    • TV news
    • Weird News
    • Video Break
    • News Obituaries
    • Death Notices
    • FAQ
    • ObitMessenger
    • In Memoriam

    • The Sacramento Bee Store
    • Golf Card
    • Farm to Fork Dining Card
  • Jobs
  • Moonlighting
  • Cars
  • Homes
  • Classifieds
  • Legal Notices
  • Place an Ad
  • Advertise
  • Mobile & Apps

Nation & World

Pakistan faces new test of democracy with selection of army boss

By Tom Hussain - McClatchy Foreign Staff

    ORDER REPRINT →

October 14, 2013 10:09 AM

Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif faces the daunting decision of choosing a new army chief, knowing that a poor choice could spell doom for the country’s fledgling democracy, while a wise choice would be no guarantee that the military won’t topple the civilian leadership sometime in the future, as it has so many times before.

Political analysts say there’s precious little evidence that Pakistan’s generals have embraced democracy or abandoned ambitions to impose a fifth junta, even though the military allowed the current civilian government to take over from the last elected one – the first time in Pakistani history that one elected government had served out its term and been followed by another.

Whether that’s a permanent change in the military’s outlook is much debated here, and it makes Sharif’s decision on who’ll replace the army chief – always a sensitive appointment – that much more crucial.

Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani announced earlier this month that he’d retire in November after six years in the job. During that stint, Kayani oversaw a 2008 general election that ushered in Pakistan’s third attempt at democracy since independence from British colonial rule in 1947. Last May, the country saw an elected administration complete a five-year term for the first time, hold its most transparent election to date and transfer power to a new elected government.

Sign Up and Save

Get six months of free digital access to The Sacramento Bee

SUBSCRIBE WITH GOOGLE

#ReadLocal

Few Pakistani analysts give Kayani credit for being a champion of democracy. Instead, he’s viewed as a shrewd politician who saw wisdom in exerting the army’s political writ behind the country’s democratic facade. Indeed, that method of intervention has come to be called the “Kayani model” by politicians and analysts, as well as within the military.

“To some extent, it’s true that Kayani broke the pattern of military intervention, and preferred behind-the-scenes pursuance of closely watched policy prerogatives, particularly relations with the U.S. and (regional foe) India,” said Nadeem Malik, an analyst based in Islamabad.

“His analysis was that the U.S. presence in Afghanistan and the Arab Spring made direct military rule unfeasible and potentially very bad for Pakistan.”

Nor do the military and its allies in the civilian bureaucracy – together, they form Pakistan’s so-called establishment – have much respect for Sharif, who in two previous terms in office, during the 1990s, clashed with army chiefs, much to his detriment.

The first time, in 1993, his government was dismissed by a pro-establishment president, Ghulam Ishaq Khan. The second time, in 1999, he attempted to replace Gen. Pervez Musharraf with a handpicked general while Musharraf was on a working trip in Sri Lanka, trying to prevent the airliner in which he was traveling home from landing in Pakistan. That sparked a counter-coup and eight years of military rule by Musharraf.

“The military and bureaucracy do not like Sharif one bit. In private conversation, they portray him as a glutton and a simpleton incapable of governing,” said Aamir Ghauri, a political analyst based in Lahore, the political heartland of Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz party.

“That makes Sharif’s choice of army chief the biggest challenge of his career to date. If his choice ignores the career seniority of top generals, it would be seen as a swipe at the army, and Sharif will become that much easier to get rid of. His only salvation is to uphold seniority.”

The most senior officer is Lt. Gen. Haroon Aslam, the army’s chief of logistics, followed by Lt. Gen. Rashad Mahmood, the chief of general staff. Both could get four-star appointments if Sharif chooses one of them as the army chief and the other as the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff – nominally a more senior, albeit largely ceremonial, position.

Little is known about either candidate’s politics, only that they rose through the officer ranks during Musharraf’s rule and were promoted as top commanders by Kayani.

As Kayani demonstrated after becoming army chief, he was more nationalistic and less pro-U.S. than his predecessor. Similarly, the new chief’s policies are unlikely to become apparent until he’s established himself in the job, probably six months or so after Kayani’s retirement, the analysts said.

Speaking Saturday at a graduation ceremony for newly commissioned officers, Kayani advised his successor-to-be to continue support for democracy.

“It is important that the military leadership in future also continues to play its unreserved role for strengthening of the democratic system,” he said at the ceremony, whose date coincided with the 14th anniversary of the army’s last takeover.

The consensus among political analysts is that Pakistan’s democracy has evolved rapidly since its restart in 2008, making military intervention a far less viable prospect than before. The judiciary is far more independent than it once was, and the explosion of live cable news channels has created a new power center. Musharraf was forced from power largely because he tried to emasculate the judiciary, which was backed by the cable channels. Since 2008, the two institutions have only grown in power, while social media have emerged as a potent force for democracy, motivating young people and the traditionally democracy-skeptical middle class to vote in unprecedented numbers in the May general election.

Analysts and politicians alike remain wary, nonetheless. They fear that Sharif might revert to the whimsical, authoritarian style he demonstrated in his second term as prime minister, from 1997 to 1999, when he pursued vendettas against the opposition Pakistan Peoples Party, and sacked one army chief and attempted to get rid of a second, leading to the October 1999 coup d’etat staged by Musharraf. Similar behavior now could have similar consequences, they said.

"Ultimately, Sharif’s biggest test will be how he governs himself," said Ghauri, the Lahore-based analyst.

  Comments  

Videos

Five dead and multiple injured in Aurora, IL shooting

Heavy snow reduces visibility on Illinois roads

View More Video

Trending Stories

Raiders mock drafts: Focus remains on defense, except for one ‘electric’ prospect

February 17, 2019 10:50 AM

49ers mock drafts: Still between two at No. 2, but one candidate is edging the other

February 17, 2019 10:48 AM

Authorities remove cougar from tree outside California home

February 17, 2019 12:56 PM

What the NBA did to bid a fond farewell to Wade and Nowitzki at All-Star Game

February 17, 2019 09:34 PM

Did Colin Kaepernick beat the NFL? Some feel that’s the case, others aren’t so sure

February 17, 2019 11:45 AM

Read Next

Nation & World

Austrian leader expects US to raise IS fighters during visit

The Associated Press

    ORDER REPRINT →

February 19, 2019 03:16 AM

Austria's leader says he expects U.S. officials to bring up their desire for European countries to take back captured Islamic State group fighters when he visits Washington this week, but he is "very cautious" on the issue.

KEEP READING

Sign Up and Save

#ReadLocal

Get six months of free digital access to The Sacramento Bee

SUBSCRIBE WITH GOOGLE

MORE NATION & WORLD

Trump the pundit handicaps 2020 Democratic contenders

Nation & World

Trump the pundit handicaps 2020 Democratic contenders

February 19, 2019 03:15 AM
Suicide bombing kills 3 policemen near Cairo’s famed bazaar

Nation & World

Suicide bombing kills 3 policemen near Cairo’s famed bazaar

February 19, 2019 03:14 AM
Flypast honors US bomber crew who died saving British kids

Nation & World

Flypast honors US bomber crew who died saving British kids

February 19, 2019 03:14 AM

Nation & World

AP News in Brief at 6:04 a.m. EST

February 19, 2019 03:04 AM
Germany’s Merkel suggests rethink of EU competition policy

Business & Real Estate

Germany’s Merkel suggests rethink of EU competition policy

February 19, 2019 02:55 AM
Israel hosts east European leaders after summit scrapped

Nation & World

Israel hosts east European leaders after summit scrapped

February 19, 2019 02:53 AM
Take Us With You

Real-time updates and all local stories you want right in the palm of your hand.

Icon for mobile apps

The Sacramento Bee App

View Newsletters

Subscriptions
  • Start a Subscription
  • Customer Service
  • eEdition
  • Vacation Hold
  • Pay Your Bill
  • Rewards
Learn More
  • About Us
  • Contact Us
  • Newsletters
  • News in Education
  • Photo Store
Advertising
  • Place a Classified Ad
  • Place a Legal Notice
  • Place a Digital Ad
  • Place a Newspaper Ad
Copyright
Commenting Policy
Corrections Policy
Privacy Policy
Terms of Service


Back to Story