Now, could Indiana be Ted Cruz’s last stand? | The Sacramento Bee

Now, Ted Cruz has to win Indiana’s Republican primary next Tuesday – or possibly read his campaign’s political obituary the next day.

Cruz has been eager for a one-on-one matchup in the Hoosier State for weeks. Now he’s got what he asked for thanks to an alliance that has third-place GOP candidate John Kasich agreeing not to contest the state anymore. And that Cruz HAS to win, as anything besides a clear victory could well be seen as a fatal stumble. Should front-runner Donald Trump win, Cruz will be out of states where he can rebound, and Republican insiders are likely to start coalescing around the brash billionaire as the inevitable nominee.

This is the landscape after Trump on Tuesday notched a second-straight week of big primary victories, sweeping Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island. He was in position to pick up at least 90 of the 118 pledged convention delegates, boosting his total to around 935.

Cruz was unlikely to get many, if any, while Gov. John Kasich of Ohio could receive a handful.

The math now is weighted squarely in Trump’s direction. Only 10 primaries, including Indiana on May 3, are left, offering 502 delegates, with 1,237 needed for the nomination.

Cruz and Kasich already know they cannot possibly win the nomination on the first ballot at the Republican National Convention. What they can do is create momentum for stopping Trump before that.

Cruz and Kasich backers refuse to regard Indiana as make-or-break. “You have to get to 1,237. If no one gets that on the first vote we feel confident about our chances on a second or third ballot,” said Lionel Rainey III, a Louisiana-based Cruz strategist.

The centerpiece of that strategy is this week’s extraordinary Cruz-Kasich alliance, with Kasich promising not to spend resources in Indiana, while Cruz will reciprocate in Oregon and New Mexico.

That essentially makes Indiana make-or-break for Cruz.

“If Donald Trump wins Indiana, there will be very little energy or hope left among those who want to back a nominee other than Donald Trump,” said Republican consultant Whit Ayres.

Three recent polls show Trump averaging 39 percent, enough for a slight lead over Cruz.

The Cruz camp needs to convince Kasich voters to come their way, a task complicated by Kasich’s comment Monday that his supporters “should vote for me.”

Their biggest challenge is convincing Kasich loyalists, who tend to be more pragmatic than Cruz’s army of hardcore conservatives, to back Cruz.

Ryan Cooper, senior adviser to the NeverTrump PAC, points to polling showing about one-fourth of Kasich and Cruz voters in Indiana are motivated largely by opposition to Trump. If even a small slice of the Kasich voters can be convinced to back Cruz, that would be enough, Cooper said.

“You don’t need to move all the Kasich voters,” he said.

Just what will motivate those voters is the biggest question mark.

Indianapolis-based pollster Brian Howey noted that Indiana voters are not easily swayed by strategic arguments and don’t appreciate being told what to do.

Adding to the uncertainty are the state’s Republican leaders. Gov. Mike Pence has met with all three candidates but has made no endorsement.

Another anti-Trump player, the conservative Club for Growth, which has taken credit for slowing Trump in other primary states, has spent $1.5 million on advertising in Indiana, urging anti-Trump voters to go with Cruz.

“If you don’t want Donald Trump to win, your choice comes down to this: math,” the group says in a 30-second spot. It’s confident enough that enough Indiana voters will agree that it’s begun to plot strategy for California’s June 7 primary.

Indeed, even if Cruz wins Indiana, he’s hardly on a smooth path to topple Trump.

There’s hardly any assurance Kasich can win Oregon May 17 or New Mexico three weeks later. And Trump remains far ahead in polling in the June 7 states of New Jersey, with 51 delegates, and California, with 172.

The stop-Trump forces are convinced, though, that there is no point at which insiders will say his nomination is inevitable, that even a Cruz loss next week is not the end.

“The tipping point is 1,237,” said Katie Packer, chairman of Our Principles PAC, which is running Stop Trump ads in Indiana. “There is no vehicle to just give him the nomination short of that.”

Then again: In the nine states with primaries after Indiana, Cruz currently is favored only in two states with small delegate hauls, Montana and South Dakota.

A Cruz win in Indiana would be a bit of a “stick in the spokes” for Trump and give Cruz and the anti-Trump forces a boost into the next states, said Republican strategist David Johnson, a former Florida Republican Party executive director.

But Republicans are going to have a difficult time denying Trump the nomination if he arrives in Cleveland 100 votes or so shy, he said.

“It’s a question of trying to deny him, but how close can he get?” Johnson said. “If you’re at 1,175 and those uncommitted delegates are members of the Republican National Committee, they’re going to have a hell of a hard time not voting for him.”