49ers mailbag: How long can Garoppolo, Kittle, Bosa and Samuel stay together?
We took some time off from mailbags this summer, but now that the 49ers are back in their headquarters, getting tested for COVID-19 every day and preparing for the start of training cap later this month, we decided to start things up again.
Let’s get to your questions!
Juan asks: How long can the 49ers keep the core of their team before everyone gets PAID?
I suspect most of the key figures will remain in place for a while. The George Kittle contract is taking time but I’m expecting it to get done eventually. And I’d imagine Fred Warner’s extension would be next followed by a Jimmy Garoppolo re-structure or extension next offseason.
The big unknown for next spring is looming free agent tackle Trent Williams, who should land in the neighborhood of $18 million per season if he plays up to his standard. That might force the team to draft another tackle early.
Then it will start to get interesting following the 2021 season when Nick Bosa will be first eligible for an extension. His brother, Joey, just received one of the biggest contracts for a defensive player in history when he signed for five years and $135 million. Nick’s contract could be worth significantly more, in part, because the new television contract will cause a drastic rise in the salary cap.
Guys who probably won’t be around as long: Kwon Alexander, Dee Ford, Jaquiski Tartt and Weston Richburg. They are likely the ones impacted most by the salary cap shrinking some $40 million next season to $175 million from $215 million.
But I’d imagine the core of Kittle, Bosa, Garoppolo and Warner will stick around for the foreseeable future.
Rory asks: Who wins/loses in the Jordan Reed signing?
Kittle wins because it gives the 49ers someone who can spell him more during games — if Reed can stay healthy, of course. Kittle hates coming out but his body has taken a pounding in recent seasons. His workload will have to lighten if he’s going to age gracefully into the next phase of his career.
The biggest loser appears to be Ross Dwelley, who might not make the roster if Reed sticks. Sixth-round draft pick Charlie Woerner may be a better blocker than Dwelley and more suited to backup fullback Kyle Juszczyk. Dwelley’s best chance might be if the team decides to keep four tight ends, which it had for spells last season when Levine Toilolo and Garrett Celek were both active.
Eric asks: What is to make with the 49ers bringing in defensive ends, Ziggy Ansah and Dion Jordan? Could one assume it potentially clear cap space from releasing or trading Dee Ford, that would enable them to sign Kittle long term?
The 49ers are very much invested in Ford this season. He has $13.6 million in guaranteed salary and would leave the team over $15 million in dead cap money if he’s released (which all points to him not having much trade value right now, either). He’s sticking around this year. Next year, when his guarantees run out, is the question mark.
Ansah or Jordan would offer the 49ers depth at a position where they don’t have much. Ford is currently the only true speed rusher the team has even if there are plenty of bodies that could play defensive end, including Arik Armstead and Solomon Thomas.
I believe bringing in Ansah or Jordan would give the 49ers a placeholder until Ronald Blair III comes back from his ACL tear, which could be around midseason. San Francisco wants to limit Ford’s snap count after offseason knee surgery and allow Bosa to take some plays off early in games to be fresh for the fourth quarter.
Chunky asks: With Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch’s extensions now complete, will there be an emphasis on re-shuffling the front office structure to promote Adam Peters? Given the crowded nature of the current structure and recent spotlight placed on Peters as a talent evaluator, what value does Jed York place on his retention?
I haven’t heard either way, but it’s a situation that’s definitely on my radar. My guess is York made Shanahan and Lynch one of the most expensive pairings in the NFL because he likes the structure that’s currently in place.
And he might hesitate to promote Lynch to something like President of Football Operations because that could actually take away his day-to-day responsibilities as a general manager. There would be far less bang for York’s buck — and then it would cost even more to promote Peters to general manager.
The 49ers are in a unique position of keeping just about the entire coaching staff and front office together even after going to the Super Bowl. Will that be true next offseason if they have another good year? Don’t count on it.
It wouldn’t at all be surprising if Peters is among those poached away, along with coordinator Robert Saleh and Shanahan’s top offensive coaches, Mike McDaniel and Mike LaFleur. That’s the cost of being good in the NFL.
D-Eggo asks: Fourth and 2, 50 seconds on the clock. Ball in the opponent’s 45-yard line. Niners need 7 points to win. What personnel are you sending out there?
I’m going 21 personnel (George Kittle at tight end, Kyle Juszczyk at fullback and whichever running back has the hot hand) along with Deebo Samuel and Kendrick Bourne.
The 49ers were the best team in the league last season at this personnel grouping. Get the ball to Kittle or Deebo, but have Juszczyk available in case those guys are doubled. Juszczyk could win in that situation against a linebacker or defensive back.
Robert Knight asks: If there is a season, will the playoffs and the Super Bowl be without fans? And does the league have a contingency plan for such events should they arrive?
It’s up to individual teams and local municipalities in terms of whether or not fans will be allowed in the stands at any point this season. Though I can’t imagine the league would be thrilled with the idea of having a Super Bowl with no fans in the stands.
But with the game being played in Florida, and the massive spike in cases this summer, it’s hard to imagine Raymond James Stadium being filled to the brim come February.
My guess: the league plays it safe, bites the bullet and goes with a made-for-TV Super Bowl with all sorts of video boards and digital ads over the seats instead of fans.
Stuart asks: Why is the mailbag on Tuesdays? You obviously have this day earmarked for it, so I’m wondering what your weekly writing schedule is and why, therefore, Tuesday ends up as mailbag day.
Tuesday is the lightest day during the regular season. Sunday is typically game day, Monday is postmortem — including an afternoon news conference with the head coach. Then prep for the next game starts Wednesday with the coach again followed by the starting quarterback. Thursday is when we hear from Saleh and Richard Sherman, and Friday we get the coach and injury updates.
Saturday, of course, is a travel day for road games or the day I turn my phone and laptop off ahead of home games to play golf or do something outside (please don’t tell my bosses). (Editor’s note: We let him have a day off every week, it’s true.) That makes Tuesday the best day for mailbags, which allow readers to tell us what to write rather than trying to enterprise story ideas for ourselves, which gets more difficult as the season goes on.
This story was originally published August 5, 2020 at 4:00 AM.
