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Will Polymarket Refund Users After Soldier’s Insider Trading Arrest?
By Pete Grieve MONEY RESEARCH COLLECTIVE
“So you’re going to refund the bets right? Since the contest and odds were illegally compromised,” one user wrote on X.
This week, Polymarket and Kalshi confirmed multiple cases of insider trading on their platforms — the most high-profile being the arrest of Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a U.S. special forces soldier, in connection with Polymarket trades on the January capture of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
The largest prediction market companies say they are pursuing disciplinary action in insider trading cases and cooperating with law enforcement as well as regulators, but they have said nothing about refunding everyday people who unwittingly traded in compromised markets.
Using direct knowledge of military plans, prosecutors allege, Van Dyke made over $400,000 betting just over $33,000 in the following event markets:
- “Maduro out by January 31, 2026?”
- “Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?”
- “U.S. Forces in Venezuela by January 31, 2026?”
- “Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?”
As of Friday afternoon, Polymarket had not added any notes on these markets’ pages about refunds, nor had it shared information about refunds on X or Discord, where it typically posts updates. The company did not respond to Money’s requests for comment.
On X, several users asked whether Polymarket will give bettors their money back in markets affected by insider trading or manipulation.
“So you’re going to refund the bets right? Since the contest and odds were illegally compromised,” one user asked, responding to a Polymarket tweet about the Van Dyke case.
“What happens now? Does Polymarket refund?” another individual wrote Thursday.
That second post was actually referencing Paris weather markets that were allegedly exploited by a man who used a heating device (like a hair dryer) to influence temperature readings at Charles de Gaulle airport. Those markets were:
- “Highest temperature in Paris on April 6?”
- “Highest temperature in Paris on April 15?”
Like the other four markets, there were no notes on the Polymarket site Friday about refunds for traders who bet on the weather in Paris these two days.
In its terms of service, Polymarket briefly explains its strict policy toward refunds: “Contracts such as the Contracts available on the Platform are highly experimental, risky, and volatile. Transactions entered into in connection with the Contracts are irreversible, final and there are no refunds,” it reads.
According to PolymarketGuide, a community-maintained site, Polymarket sometimes issues refunds “when a market is released with faulty rules, posted too late, removed before resolution or its rules change after launch.” The guide adds: “In rare cases, Polymarket may decide to make users whole when a market resolves incorrectly.”
Notices about refunds are typically posted in a Polymarket Discord channel called “market-updates.” Refunds have been issued in dozens of markets in the month of April alone, according to customer support messages in the channel. But none of them are the markets mentioned above.
On Wednesday, Kalshi announced fines and sanctions in three separate insider trading cases of candidates for Congress betting on their own primaries. Kalshi did not respond to Money’s request for comment about the possibility of refunds for traders who used those markets.
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Pete Grieve is a New York-based reporter who covers personal finance news. At Money, Pete reports stories that affect Americans’ wallets on topics including insurance, autos, housing, credit cards, retirement and taxes. He studied political science and photography at the University of Chicago, where he was editor-in-chief of The Chicago Maroon, the student newspaper. Pete began his career as a professional journalist in 2019. Prior to joining Money, he was a health reporter for Spectrum News based in Columbus, Ohio, where he wrote digital stories and appeared on TV to provide coverage to a statewide audience. He has also written for the San Francisco Chronicle, the Chicago Sun-Times and CNN Politics. Pete received extensive journalism training through Report for America, a nonprofit organization that places reporters in newsrooms to cover underreported issues and communities, and has attended journalism conferences from organizations including Investigative Reporters and Editors (IRE) and the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing. He has discussed his reporting in interviews with outlets including the Columbia Journalism Review, This Morning With Gordon Deal and WBEZ (Chicago's NPR station). He’s been a panelist at the Chicago Headline Club’s FOIA Fest and he received the Institute on Political Journalism’s $2,500 Award for Excellence in Collegiate Reporting in 2017. An essay he wrote for Grey City magazine was later published in a 2020 book, Remembering J. Z. Smith: A Career and its Consequence.