Both fans and players fear lockout, survey finds

In separate polls of 101 anonymous MLB players and almost 8,500 fans conducted by The Athletic, an overwhelming majority of both groups indicated that they were bracing for a lockout before the 2027 season.

In the first segment released from The Athletic’s annual MLB player poll, which was conducted across 23 teams from February to May, 80 respondents said they believed that there would be a lockout this offseason.

“Yes, there will 100% be a lockout,” one American League pitcher said. “But the real question is whether or not it’ll bleed into losing games. Probably.”

That pitcher pointed to Commissioner Rob Manfred’s pending retirement from his post, expected in January 2029. “This is Manfred’s last task to accomplish before it’s all done, and I think he’s going to try to get a salary cap.”

Nineteen players polled said they were not sure. Only two players said they did not expect a lockout to occur.

In the fan survey, 77.7% of respondents said they believed that MLB would miss games in 2027 as a result of a lockout.

“I hope they lose only a few games, but both sides are dug in,” one fan said.

That specter serves as negotiating leverage for both the league and the MLB Players Association. But with the sport experiencing boosts in attendance, ratings and overall interest, fan sentiment could have consequences.

The Athletic’s fan survey revealed that 21.8% of respondents said missing games could turn them away from MLB “for a significant amount of time,” while 33.7% said it would depend on how many games would be canceled.

“I think we’re not going to lose games,” one player from the National League West said. “We’re going to find a way to play 162, but there’s going to be some kind of inconvenience with the spring training.”

As all sides brace for a labor fight this winter, the solution remains uncertain. In MLB’s initial labor proposal, the league pitched a hard salary cap of $245.3 million and a hard floor of $171.2 million.

Players have indicated that they would fight back against such a system. The fan survey, however, showed that 57.9% of participating fans want a cap-and-floor system. Support for the game’s current market system was at 38.9%.

When the question was narrowed, however, 44.4% of fans supported a soft cap and floor, compared with 39.7% supporting a hard cap and floor.

The initial bargaining proposal from the players’ union pitched raising existing “luxury tax” thresholds and instituting a “competitive integrity tax” for clubs that do not meet minimum payroll benchmarks.

For fans, a perception of poor competitive balance seems to drive at least some of the desire for a cap.

When asked whether MLB’s competitive balance is better or worse than the NBA, the NFL and the NHL -- all of which operate with salary caps -- 57.7% of respondents said worse. Last season’s Los Angeles Dodgers, operating with a league-high payroll, became the first team to win consecutive World Series since the Yankees from 1998 to 2000.

“Ask yourself who is going to win the Super Bowl next year and you could have 15 possible choices,” one fan responded. “World Series? The Dodgers … and perhaps three or four other teams could get lucky.”

When asked who was primarily responsible for the wide spending disparity in the sport, 59.9% of fans said owners who spent too little. Only 15.6% blamed owners who spend too much.

The debates over the sport’s financial system and overall parity will most likely rage for months. The league’s current collective bargaining agreement expires Dec. 1.

Although a majority of the responding fans supported some form of a cap-and-floor system, when asked who would be to blame if MLB ultimately misses games, only 21.9% of fans said they would blame the players. A total of 45.3% indicated that they would blame owners. Just over 30% said they would blame both sides equally.

“Every owner is perfectly capable of raising payroll, so it’s not necessarily an unfair system, just an unequal one,” one fan said.

This article originally appeared in The New York Times.

Copyright 2026 The New York Times Company

This story was originally published June 20, 2026 at 1:43 PM.