Gold surges on Hormuz news: Here's what comes next

By Hillary Remy TheStreet

Updated April 18, 2026 6:10 AM

The Strait of Hormuz just got a little less scary. Gold liked what it heard.

Spot gold rose approximately 1.0% to $4,838.50 an ounce on April 17 after Iran's foreign ministry declared the Strait "completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire" for all commercial vessels, according to BullionVault. U.S. gold futures settled 1.5% higher at $4,879.60. At one point, bullion had gained as much as 2.1% before trimming some of those moves.

The immediate catalyst was geopolitical relief. But the bigger story is what the Strait's reopening did to yields, the dollar, and rate expectations, all of which shifted in gold's favor at the same time.

Why gold moved higher, despite less safe-haven demand

On paper, a de-escalation in the Iran war should reduce the urgency for safe-haven assets. Gold fell sharply when the first Israel-Iran ceasefire was confirmed in June 2025. This time, the reaction was different.

The difference is what the Hormuz reopening did to broader market expectations. Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields fell to 4.23%, and market consensus for Federal Reserve end-2026 rates dropped below 3.50% for the first time since early March, according to BullionVault.

Lower oil prices reduced inflation fears. That opened the door for the Fed to ease, which makes a non-yielding asset like gold more attractive by comparison.

A weaker dollar reinforced the move. Gold becomes cheaper for international buyers when the dollar falls, which lifts demand and supports prices.

The MSCI World Index of major-economy equities recorded its third consecutive weekly gain of 3% or more, suggesting markets were broadly absorbing the news as a positive, according to BullionVault.

One important caveat on the Strait reopening

The picture is not entirely clean. Although Iran's foreign ministry declared the Strait open, President Donald Trump said the naval blockade of Iran will remain in place until an outright peace deal is concluded.

Iranian state TV also quoted a senior military official saying passage was not possible without coordination with the Islamic Republic Guard Corps naval forces.

More Gold:

That ambiguity matters. A Strait that is "open" in principle but still subject to military coordination is not the same as one that is fully free.

If the ceasefire frays or conditions on passage become more restrictive, the energy-risk premium could return quickly, which would change the calculus for gold again.

Silver, platinum, and palladium joined the rally

The move was not limited to gold. Silver, platinum, and palladium all rose alongside bullion, suggesting the market was making a broader precious-metals call rather than just a gold-specific one.

Platinum has been under pressure from the Hormuz disruption, which weighed on shipping and trade flows. South Africa accounts for more than 70% of global platinum supply. The World Platinum Investment Council is forecasting a fourth consecutive annual deficit for the metal in 2026, projected at 240,000 ounces, according to Investing News.

Palladium had already posted strong gains of 3.9% in the prior week, according to Investing News.

What comes next for gold

The direction of gold from here will depend on whether the ceasefire holds, how far yields and the dollar continue to fall, and whether investors become more convinced that the Fed will cut rates before year-end.

Money managers increased their bullish gold bets to a four-week high as of April 14, while bullish silver positions also rose, according to Reuters, citing Bloomberg data. When positioning is already leaning this heavily bullish, a fresh catalyst like another leg lower in yields or a softer dollar can drive prices further and faster.

Analyst price targets for gold in 2026 remain elevated across the board. Goldman Sachs holds a $5,400 target. JPMorgan calls gold its highest-conviction long, with a $6,300 forecast. Deutsche Bank sees $6,000.

UBS targets $5,600 for the year, though it lowered its near-term call to $5,200 by June, citing dollar strength and rate expectations. A Reuters poll of 30 strategists put the median 2026 forecast at $4,746, according to DeVere Group.

Gold's record high of $5,589.38 was set on Jan. 28, 2026, according to Investing News. At $4,838 on April 17, the metal remains approximately 13% below that peak. If the macro backdrop of lower yields, a softer dollar, and easing geopolitical risk persists, some of that gap could close.

Key precious metals figures on April 17, 2026:

Spot gold: Up approximately 1.0% to $4,838.50 an ounce, according to BullionVault
U.S. gold futures: Settled up 1.5% at $4,879.60, BullionVault confirmed
Gold intraday high: Up as much as 2.1% before trimming gains
Gold record high: $5,589.38, set Jan. 28, 2026, Investing News indicated
10-year U.S. Treasury yield: Fell to 4.23%, BullionVault reported
Fed end-2026 rate consensus: Moved below 3.50% for first time since early March, according to BullionVault
Money manager bullish gold positioning: Four-week high as of April 14, Reuters noted
Goldman Sachs 2026 gold target: $5,400
JPMorgan 2026 gold target: $6,300
Reuters poll median 2026 gold forecast: $4,746, according to DeVere Group

The investor takeaway on gold

Gold is now being pulled in two directions. A reduction in war risk removes one layer of emergency demand. But the macro environment that emerged from the Hormuz news keeps the structural case for bullion intact.

Falling yields, a softer dollar, and renewed expectations for Fed easing all point in gold's favor. The metal does not need geopolitical panic to stay supported. It needs rates to fall and the dollar to stay soft.

Right now, both of those conditions are moving in the desired direction. Whether that continues depends on whether the Iran ceasefire holds, and whether the Fed gives investors any reason to price in easing before year's end.

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This story was originally published April 18, 2026 at 6:03 AM.