BiggerPockets' Dave Meyer drops message on potential housing market crash

Many Americans have grown increasingly worried about a potential housing market crash. With memories of the 2008 collapse still fresh for those who lived through it, and a steady stream of headlines warning of a similar reckoning, crash anxiety has resurfaced as one of the most persistent narratives in real estate.

The conditions feeding that fear are understandable on the surface. Mortgage rates have climbed back into the 6.3 to 6.5% range, reversing the brief dip below 6% buyers saw in February. The Consumer Price Index jumped from 2.4% to 3.3% in March, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data - an unusually sharp increase that signals inflation may stay elevated longer than expected.

The war in Iran has added further pressure, contributing in-part to the aforementioned data and broader market conditions that are generally negative.

But while the macro pressures are stacking, BiggerPockets Chief Investment Officer Dave Meyer says the actual likelihood of a 2008-style crash remains low - and the gap between the fear and the data is wider than most headlines suggest. In an exclusive interview with TheStreet, Meyer addressed the crash narrative directly.

"Housing market crashes are extremely rare," he emphasized.

What BiggerPockets' Dave Meyer said on housing crash fears

Meyer's argument against the crash narrative starts with a single statistic that cuts through most of the noise. As he puts it, the United States has experienced exactly one housing market crash in the last century, and the fundamentals driving that collapse are not present in today's market.

"If you look at fundamentals, if you look at historical comparisons - we've had one crash, one crash, in the last 100 years in this country," Meyer told TheStreet. "And that was in 2008."

That historical context matters, because the long-run trajectory of housing has never resembled the boom-and-bust pattern many Americans now associate with the market. Meyer reiterated a normal appreciation rate is roughly 3.5% per year over time - well below the double-digit surges seen during the pandemic-era price explosion, and nothing close to the free fall of 2008.

Still, Meyer didn't dismiss the underlying anxiety driving the fear. He acknowledged the emotional logic at play and was direct about why crash predictions continue to find an audience even when the data doesn't fully support them.

"So I get that people have - I always call it housing market trauma a little bit - or there was some recency bias there as well," Meyer added. "I do genuinely understand that. I lived through it, too."

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While Meyer empathizes with the fear, he also provides data for why it isn't founded in much reality. With mortgage rates elevated and inflation is creeping back up, the conditions of 2026 are challenging. But the structural setup that produced 2008 - widespread subprime lending, speculative over-leveraging, and a flood of unqualified buyers - isn't present in today's market, at least not to the degree it was nearly two decades ago.

For Americans bracing for another collapse, Meyer's data and historical perspective offer some comfort.

How the 2026 housing market could actually look

If a 2008-style collapse isn't on the table, the next question becomes what buyers and sellers should actually expect from the housing market over the next couple of years. Meyer says the answer doesn't match either of the two extremes most often projected in real estate coverage.

"We see media usually pointing to one of two extremes when they project what's going to happen over the next couple of years," Meyer told TheStreet. "Either it's going to be this massive crash, and we're going to be reliving 2008, or there's a shortage of housing and prices are going to explode again like COVID."

In Meyer's view, the data does not reflect either extreme being on the horizon. The reality is more measured, and by historical standards, more normal than the last decade has conditioned Americans to expect.

"Although I do think pricing is probably going to come down over the next couple of years, the likelihood that we see a 2008-style crash remains low," Meyer reiterated. "The data and the fundamentals and what's actually happening on the ground suggests that we are going to be in a much flatter, slower market."

This perspective is important for Americans planning their next major real estate decisions. A modest decline in prices is fundamentally different from a collapse.

For buyers, slow-and-steady conditions can mean better negotiating leverage and more time to make decisions. For sellers, it means setting realistic price expectations rather than chasing 2021 comps that no longer reflect the market. And for investors, it means returning to fundamentals like cash flow and value-add potential rather than waiting on appreciation that may not arrive on the timeline they want.

None of that erases the affordability pressures buyers are facing in 2026. Mortgage rates in the mid-sixes and elevated home prices are real constraints. But Meyer's broader point is that those constraints reflect a slower, more typical market - not a broken one on the verge of a crash.

Key takeaways on housing market crash fears

• Crashes are historically extremely rare: Per Meyer, the United States has experienced only one true housing market crash in the last 100 years - the 2008 collapse. That makes a repeat the exception, not the baseline expectation.
• 2008 trauma is shaping current fear, not current data: Meyer attributes much of today's crash anxiety to recency bias from the Great Recession, noting that he understands the emotional weight of that era but says the underlying fundamentals of 2026 don't mirror it.
• The historical norm is slow appreciation: The long-run housing trajectory averages around 3.5% annual appreciation, well below the COVID-era surges that have skewed buyer expectations over the last several years.
• A modest price decline is not a crash: Meyer expects pricing to soften over the next couple of years, but says the likelihood of a 2008-style collapse remains low given current market fundamentals.
• Affordability pressures remain regardless: Even without a crash, mortgage rates in the 6.3 to 6.5% range and elevated home prices mean buyers shouldn't expect 2008-style bargains - the slow-and-steady market has its own constraints.

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This story was originally published May 1, 2026 at 9:44 AM.