Chevron CEO Mike Wirth warns oil prices face upward pressure in June and July
I have been watching oil market commentary for a while. CEOs tend to be measured. They speak in ranges. They qualify. They hedge. It has been 92 days since the U.S. and Israeli military campaign against Iran began on February 28, 2026.
That is what made Chevron CEO Mike Wirth's remarks at the Bernstein 42nd Annual Strategic Decisions Conference on May 28, 2026, so striking.
He wasn't hedging.
"The buffers and the shock absorbers are being steadily drawn down, and the ability for the market to absorb this imbalance is drastically diminished today versus where we started," Wirth said, according to Seeking Alpha.
Wirth went further: "Over the next few weeks, we're likely to see those pressures flow through more directly to physical prices, and there's more upwards pressure that I would expect as we get into June and certainly into July."
That is a specific, directional warning from the CEO of one of the world's largest energy companies. The Iran war has been grinding through global oil reserves for more than ten weeks. The cushion that absorbed the initial shock is nearly gone. And the data is starting to confirm what Wirth is describing.
What the inventory numbers reveal. The cushion is almost gone
The EIA's weekly petroleum status report, released May 28 for the week ending May 22, puts hard numbers on what Wirth described.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell 3.3 million barrels in a single week, according to the EIA report. At 441.7 million barrels, U.S. crude stocks are now approximately 2% below the five-year average for this time of year. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) fell 9.1 million barrels to 365.1 million barrels in the same week, according to the same report.
The product picture is equally stressed:
- Motor gasoline inventories are 6% below the five-year average
- Distillate fuel inventories are 11% below the five-year average
- Total commercial petroleum inventories fell by 8.3 million barrels in the week
Source: AIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
West Texas Intermediate crude was trading at $100.35 per barrel on May 22, according to the EIA - up $37.46 from a year ago. It has retreated, but still remains much higher than before the war, near $88.
The national average retail price for regular gasoline reached $4.475 per gallon on May 18, up $1.315 from a year ago, according to the same report. Diesel was averaging $5.523 per gallon, a $2.036 increase year over year.
The IEA's May 2026 Oil Market Report adds the global dimension. Global observed oil inventories drew down by 129 million barrels in March and by a further 117 million barrels in April, according to IEA data.
Related: Goldman Sachs gives Chevron stock price new target after earnings
Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries' on-land stocks fell 146 million barrels in April alone - a drawdown of 4.9 million barrels per day.
Cumulative supply losses from Gulf producers since the start of the conflict have exceeded one billion barrels, with more than 14 million barrels per day now shut in, according to the IEA.
The IEA's global picture frames how serious the supply shock actually is
The numbers Wirth cited at Bernstein align precisely with what the IEA described in its May 2026 Oil Market Report. Global oil supply declined a further 1.8 million barrels per day in April to 95.1 million barrels per day, bringing total losses since February to 12.8 million barrels per day, according to the IEA.
North Sea Dated traded in an "unparalleled" range of almost $50 per barrel in April, averaging $120.36 per barrel for the month, according to IEA data.
The benchmark swung from a high of $144 per barrel to below $100 per barrel and back to approximately $110 per barrel in recent weeks, driven by conflicting signals over whether the U.S. and Iran will reach a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Related: Chevron CEO sends blunt message on oil, economy
The latest geopolitical development adds urgency. According to The Guardian, President Trump has circulated a draft peace agreement with Iran.
However, Washington struck what it described as an Iranian drone operation near the Strait of Hormuz, following which Iran targeted a U.S. airbase in Kuwait on May 28, suggesting the conflict remains active even as ceasefire discussions continue.
Exxon's Dan Chapman added an even more alarming near-term price scenario, suggesting physical Brent cargo prices could reach $150 to $160 per barrel when inventories hit all-time lows in the coming weeks, according to Seeking Alpha.
Who gets hit hardest, and what it means for American drivers and the economy
Chevron's (CVX) Wirth was specific about geographic exposure. Asia faces the most acute risk because of its dependence on Middle Eastern supply. Japan sources over 90% of its oil imports from the region.
Imports from the Middle East dropped by 67.2% in April alone, compared to the same month of 2025, according to Tank Terminals.
Related: Morgan Stanley cuts to chase on Chevron, oil stock prices
Chinese seaborne crude imports fell 3.6 million barrels per day from February to April, according to Kpler data cited in the IEA report.
Japan's imports fell by 1.9 million barrels per day and Korea's by 1 million barrels per day over the same period.
What about American households?
For Americans, the transmission mechanism from global supply shock to personal budget is already visible. Gasoline at $4.475 per gallon is a tangible cost that compounds across every weekly fill-up, every delivery truck, every airline ticket.
Diesel at $5.523 per gallon flows directly into the price of goods transported by road. The IEA projects global oil demand to contract by 420,000 barrels per day for 2026 as a whole, 1.3 million barrels per day weaker than its pre-war forecast, according to EIA.
More Oil and Gas:
- Early Chevron stock investors now earn 12.1% dividend yield
- Chevron, Shell ink more surprising Venezuela deals
- AAA gas prices reveal a new trend for Americans
The petrochemical and aviation sectors are currently absorbing the steepest losses. Demand destruction, the IEA noted, will increasingly weigh on broader fuel use as prices remain elevated.
Whether a deal materializes before the summer driving peak season will determine how much further pressure consumers absorb. Wirth's message was that the market should not wait for that deal to happen before expecting higher prices.
Related: Chevron earnings carry a cash-flow warning
The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
This story was originally published May 30, 2026 at 8:33 AM.